Noodles, Rice and Pasta - UK - July 2009

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Key themes
Definition
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
If the consumer can’t go to Asia… Asia will come to the consumer
Targeting the elderly
Pasta, re-invented (or simply re-explored)
MARKET IN BRIEF
Buoyant market…
... but with recession still a concern
Evolving tastes and health-conscious consumers
Growth categories and NPD
Competition heats up
Consumer findings
The future
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Consumers still paying for 2008 rice shortages
Basmati market tackles supply limitations
Bumper wheat crop brings an end to pasta shortages
Eating in is the new eating out
Figure 1: Trends in healthy lifestyles and eating habits, 2004-08
Health concerns focused on elderly
Potatoes lose out to rice and pasta
Figure 2: Quantities of household purchases of pasta, rice, noodles and potatoes, 2004-07*
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Opportunities for growth
Figure 3: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2004-14
Rising numbers of ABs will boost total and premium sales
Figure 4: Structure of the UK adult population, by socio-economic group, 2004-14
Ethnic population growth drives branded rice sales
Figure 5: UK ethnic population, by ethnic group, April 2001
Scrutiny of salt and fat content
Figure 6: Projections of overweight and obesity prevalence among UK adults, by gender, 2003-50
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Mainstream appeal for pasta and noodles
Figure 7: Trends in usage of selected carbohydrate-based food items and cooking sauces, 2004-08
Youth appeal for pizza and savoury snacks
Rice leads value sales growth
Figure 8: UK retail sales of carbohydrate based meals, cooking sauces and ready meals, 2004-08
Cross-promotional potential for pasta
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Pasta leads NPD activity in 2008
Figure 9: NPD in noodles, pasta and rice, % by positioning, 2006-09*
Range extensions gather momentum
Figure 10: NPD in noodles, pasta and rice, % by launch type, 2006-09*
Recession boosts own-label activity
Figure 11: NPD in noodles, pasta and rice, % by own –label and branded, 2006-09*
NPD focuses on health and convenience
Figure 12: NPD in noodles, pasta & rice, % by positioning, 2006-08
Healthy eating ranges
Offering convenience
Spicing up instant noodles
Embracing organic and wholegrain
Premium range activity strong
Children’s market targeted
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Shortages fuel rocketing market
Figure 13: UK retail value sales of noodles, rice and pasta market, 2004-14
Shoppers alter shopping habits in the recession
The future of the market
Factors used in the forecast
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
 PASTA AND PASTA-BASED MEALS
Rising prices fail to quell volume growth
Figure 14: UK retail volume and value sales of pasta, at current and constant prices, 2004-14
Italian focus and health concerns boost ready meals
NPD and recession lift dry pasta sales
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of pasta, by type, 2006-09
 RICE
Adventurous Brits drive rice sales
Figure 16: UK retail volume and value sales of rice, at current and constant prices, 2004-14
Recession boosts own-label and speciality rices
Convenience pulls in the premiums
Figure 17: UK retail value sales of rice, by type, 2006-09
 NOODLES
Growth despite limited usage
Figure 18: UK retail volume and value sales of noodles, at current and constant prices, 2004-14
Mixed performances among shelf-stable noodles
Figure 19: UK retail value sales of noodles, by type, 2006-09
Chilled noodle market falters
MARKET SHARE
Key points
 PASTA AND PASTA-BASED MEALS
Inflation and marketing boost own-label
Figure 20: Estimated manufacturer shares of retail value sales of dried pasta, 2006-09*
Napolina and De Cecco push ahead
 RICE
Recession boosts own-label sales
Figure 21: Estimated manufacturer shares of retail value sales of rice, 2006-09
Greatest gains made by Tilda and Veetee
 NOODLES
Brands dominate the noodles market
Figure 22: Estimated manufacturer shares of retail value sales of noodles, 2006-09
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
 MANUFACTURERS AND BRANDS
Figure 23: Leading companies in the pasta, rice and noodles market and their brands, 2009
 MAJOR PLAYERS
Associated British Foods
Heinz
Mars
Napolina
Nestlé
Giovanni Rana
Premier Foods
Riso Gallo
Tilda
Unilever
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Brands defend market share as recession bites
Figure 24: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on pasta, noodles and rice, 2006-08
TV activity stepped up
Figure 25: Percentage of main monitored media advertising expenditure on pasta, noodles and rice, by media type, 2006-08
Setting out their stalls
Figure 26: Adspend by seasonality correlated with NPD activity, 2006-08
Uncle Ben’s leads marketing spend
‘Spoof’ campaigns for Pot Noodle and Giovanni Rana
Tilda evokes premium appeal
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Multiple dominance grows
Figure 27: Retail distribution of the UK market for noodles, rice and pasta, 2006-09
Convenience store success in pasta and rice sales
THE CONSUMER – PASTA AND NOODLES USAGE
Key points
Pasta and noodles: Frequency of usage increases
Figure 28: Trends in frequency and usage of pasta and noodles, 2004-08**
Appealing to the affluent young families
Figure 29: Users vs. non-users of pasta and noodles, by demographic group, 2008
Over-55s not fans of pasta and noodles
Fresh pasta and noodles gain ground
Figure 30: Trends in usage of pasta and noodles, by type, 2004-08
Fresh pasta appeals to health-conscious
Noodles boost youth appeal
Savoury snacks proving an instant hit
Figure 31: Trends in frequency and usage of instant savoury snacks, 2004-08
Less affluent young opt for instant savoury snacks
Figure 32: Users vs. non-users of pasta and noodles, by demographic group, 2008
Potential for healthier, upmarket snacks?
Dried snack meals losing out
Figure 33: Trends in usage of instant savoury snacks, by type, 2006-08
Chilled salads pose greatest competitive threat
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Key points
Increased usage bolsters future prospects
Figure 34: Frequency of eating noodles, rice and pasta now compared to a year ago, May 2009
Universal appeal for rice, noodles a favourite of young consumers
 RICE
Figure 35: Types of rice eaten, May 2009
Convenience choices appeal to less affluent
Adventurous women sample multiple rice types
Figure 36: Repertoire of types of rice eaten, May 2009
Frequency of rice consumption
Figure 37: Frequency of eating rice, May 2009
Value is foremost in consumers’ minds
Figure 38: Agreement with statements about rice, May 2009
Seeking health, versatility and convenience
 NOODLES
Consumer preferences for noodle types
Figure 39: Types of noodles eaten, May 2009
Noodle consumers not sampling across repertoires
Figure 40: Repertoire of type of noodles eaten, May 2009
Noodles meet demand for convenience and variety
Figure 41: Statements agreed with when it comes to noodles, May 2009
Boosting consumption among older consumers
Opportunity for takeaway-style noodle meals?
 PASTA
Fresh gaining ground on dry pasta
Figure 42: Types of pasta eaten, May 2009
Sampling across repertoires is low
Figure 43: Repertoire of types of pasta eaten, May 2009
Positive responses bolster pasta’s position
Figure 44: Statements agreed with when it comes to pasta dishes, May 2009
Dry pasta a store cupboard staple for many
Affluent young opt for fresh pasta
Convenience draws in consumers
FURTHER ANALYSIS – TARGETING GROUPS
Key points
Figure 45: Consumer typologies for rice, May 2009
Own-Label Stalwarts
Brand Loyalists
Budget Shoppers
APPENDIX
APPENDIX – INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 46: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2008
Figure 47: Agreement with lifestyle statements, by demographics, 2008
APPENDIX – COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Figure 48: Trends in usage of selected carbohydrate-based food items and cooking sauces, by demographics, 2008
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 49: Main monitored media expenditure on rice, noodles and pasta, by brand and manufacturer, 2006-08
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – PASTA AND NOODLES USAGE
Figure 50: Frequency and usage of pasta and noodles, by demographics, 2008
Figure 51: Usage of pasta and noodles, by type, by demographics, 2008
Figure 52: Frequency and usage of instant savoury snacks, by demographics, 2008
Figure 53: Trends in usage of instant savoury snacks, by demographics, 2008
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Figure 54: Frequency of eating noodles now compared to a year ago, May 2009
Figure 55: Frequency of eating rice now compared to a year ago, May 2009
Figure 56: Frequency of eating pasta now compared to a year ago, May 2009
Figure 57: Types of rice eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 58: Types of rice eaten, by demographics, May 2009 (continued)
Figure 59: Repertoire of types of rice eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 60: Repertoire of types of rice eaten, May 2009
Figure 61: Frequency of eating rice, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 62: Frequency of eating rice, by type, May 2009
Figure 63: Frequency of eating rice, by types of rice eaten, May 2009
Figure 64: Frequency of eating rice, by types of rice eaten, May 2009 (continued)
Figure 65: Agreement with statements about rice, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 66: Agreement with statements about rice, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 67: Agreement with statements about rice, by type of rice eaten, May 2009
Figure 68: Agreement with statements about rice, by type of rice eaten, May 2009
Figure 69: Agreement with statements about rice, by frequency of eating rice, May 2009
Figure 70: Types of noodles eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 71: Repertoire of noodles eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 72: Agreement with statements about noodles, May 2009
Figure 73: Repertoire of type of noodles eaten, May 2009
Figure 74: Agreement with statements about noodles, by types of noodles eaten, May 2009
Figure 75: Types of pasta eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 76: Repertoire of types of pasta eaten, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 77: Agreement with statements about pasta, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 78: Agreement with statements about pasta, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 79: Repertoire of types of pasta eaten, May 2009
APPENDIX – FURTHER ANALYSIS – TARGETING GROUPS
Figure 80: Target groups, by demographics, May 2009
Figure 81: Agreement with statements about rice, by target group, May 2009
Figure 82: Repertoire of types of rice eaten, by target group, May 2009
Figure 83: Frequency of eating rice, by target groups, May 2009
Figure 84: Types of rice eaten, by target groups, May 2009