Fruit Juice and Juice Drinks - US - January 2009

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market at a glance—the market is set to experience declining sales during 2008-13
Other non-alcoholic beverages provide tough competition; rising juice and juice drink prices erode consumer base
100% fruit juice sales far outpace that of juice drinks
Top five manufacturers account for more than half of sales
U.S. households exhibit steady incidence but slight decline in frequency of drinking fruit juice/juice drinks
Eating fresh fruit is the biggest reason consumers do not drink fruit juice or juice drinks
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Reinstate 100% fruit juice as a healthy beverage
Figure 1: Attitude towards health, 2004 and 2008
Figure 2: Reasons for watching/controlling diet, 2004 and 2008
Citing scientific studies to back pro-health claims
Figure 3: Welch’s Concord Grape Juice, Television Ad, 2008
Fruit and vegetable blends attract health-conscious consumers
Figure 4: Campbell V8 V-Fusion, Television Ad, 2008
Less is more—take out added sugar, artificial color, and flavoring from fruit juice and juice drinks
Ethnic fruit juice and juice drinks offer growth potential
Catering to Hispanic Americans
Asian inspiration
Fruit juice and juice drinks industry has an opportunity to drive growth in burgeoning beauty beverage sector
Probiotic juices—the friendly bacteria
Fruit juices beyond the juice glass
FAST FORWARD TRENDS
 WRONG TIME FOR PREMIUM AND SUPER-PREMIUM JUICES?
Super-premium is niche
Premium priced, disguised as regular
Exploring the Amazon
Beyond feelings of logic
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Industry challenged; demand retraction due to a tarnished reputation, high prices, and tough economic climate
Promoting growth through communicating balance of health and value
Growth potential exists through targeting ethnic consumers
Sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 5: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks at current prices, 2003-13
Figure 6: Total U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Wal-Mart sales
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Interchangeability with other beverages…
Figure 7: Reasons for not drinking juice/juice drinks, by age, October 2008
Figure 8: U.S. sales of RTD non-carbonated beverages, by segment, 2005 and 2007
Plain bottled water and enhanced bottled water
Fruit-flavored tea
Healthy soda—increased emphasis on natural positioning and vitamin and mineral fortification
Sports drinks—some of these now include vitamins and minerals
Fruit-juice based energy drinks—likely attracting young fruit juice and juice drinks users
High prices discourage growth
Figure 9: FDMx prices for select non-alcoholic beverages, 2007
Figure 10: Average FDMx price of certain juices, 2005-08
Fresh fruit competes with fruit juice
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Fruit juice and juice drinks growth relies upon health-focused, value-added innovation
Segment sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 11: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice and juice drinks at current prices, by segment, 2003-13
Figure 12: Total sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, segmented by type, 2006 and 2008
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FRUIT JUICE
Key point
On-the-go convenience and innovation propels bottled juices
Figure 13: FDMx sales of fruit juice by form, 2006 and 2008
Flat orange juice sales contribute to overall dismal performance; fruit blends may offer a growth platform
Figure 14: Fruit juice: Per capita availability adjusted for loss*, 2000-06
Figure 15: FDMx sales of fruit juice by flavor*, 2006 and 2008**
Figure 16: U.S. sales and forecast of fruit juice, 2003-13
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—JUICE DRINKS
Key points
Healthily positioned, value priced juice drinks can fill a need
Drink mixes key to success
Figure 17: FDMx sales of juice drinks by form, 2006 and 2008
Figure 18: FDMx sales of juice drinks by flavor*, 2006 and 2008
Figure 19: U.S. sales and forecast of juice drinks, 2003-13
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Mass merchandisers lose market share to supermarket and drug channels
Figure 20: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks, by retail channel, 2006 and 2008
Figure 21: New fruit juice/drink products launched at supermarkets and other retailers, 2003 and 2008
Non-convenience channels can stimulate growth through increasing single-serve selection
Figure 22: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by age, October 2008
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key point
Figure 23: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at supermarkets, 2003-08
RETAIL CHANNELS—MASS AND OTHER
Key points
Mass merchants must find niche
Figure 24: U.S. sales of fruit juice and juice drinks at mass merchandisers and other stores, 2003-08
RETAIL CHANNELS—NATURAL STORES
Natural channel/SPINS
Sales of fruit juices in the natural channel
Figure 25: Natural product supermarket retail sales of fruit juices, at current prices and inflation adjusted prices, 2006-08
Implications
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 26: Natural product supermarket retail sales of juices, by segment, 2006-08
Fruit juices natural channel
Brand table: Fruit juices
Figure 27: Select brand sales of fruit juice in natural channels, 2006 and 2008
Natural channel sales of fruit juices by organic
Figure 28: Natural product supermarket retail sales of fruit juices, by organic, 2006 and 2008
Natural channel sales of fruit juices by packaging
Figure 29: Natural product supermarket retail sales of fruit juices, by packaging, 2006 and 2008
Natural channel sales of fruit juices by flavor
Figure 30: Natural product supermarket retail sales of fruit juices, by flavor, 2006 and 2008
MARKET DRIVERS
Health and wellness trends can be a plus for the market
Figure 31: Attitudes regarding healthy eating, January 2003-March 2008
Households with children impact consumption of fruit juice
Figure 32: Incidence of purchasing fruit juice and juice drinks and powdered juice drinks in the past month, by presence of children, October 2008
Figure 33: Households with children under age 18 present, 2001-07
Figure 34: U.S. population of teens aged 12-17, 2003-13
Obesity
Figure 35: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
Figure 36: Prevalence of obesity among children aged 6-19, 1988-2004
Population diversity to benefit market growth
Figure 37: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2003-13
COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Key points
Private labels create price competition for the national brands
Other companies
Figure 38: FDMx sales of leading fruit juice and juice drink companies, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—FRUIT JUICE
Key points
Poor orange juice sales hurt segment
Juice blends picking up momentum
Figure 39: FDMx brand sales of fruit juice in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—JUICE DRINKS
Key points
Kraft suffers from its sugary image
On-the-go brands are rising in sales
Figure 40: FDMx brand sales of juice drinks in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
BRAND QUALITIES
Companies carving out their share
Tampico target Hispanics
Ocean Spray targets dieting juice drinkers
Motts for Tots
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
 INTRODUCTION
Figure 41: Number of new product launches in juice and juice drinks, by juice, juice drinks and nectars, 2003-08
Figure 42: Trends in numbers of new product introductions in the fruit juice and juice drinks market, 2003-08
Top 10 claims during 2005-08
Overview
Figure 43: Top 10 claims in fruit juice and juice drinks market, 2005-08
Figure 44: Trends in new product introductions in the fruit juice and juice drinks market, by claim, 2006-08*
Immune system—functional
Premiumization
High protein
Fruit and vegetable servings
Alternative sweeteners
Omegas
Anti-hangover
“Borrowed” flavors from tea
Flavors
Figure 45: Top 10 flavors in juice and juice drinks, 2005-08
Trends in children-targeted fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 46: Number of new fruit juice/drinks targeted to children and teens, 2005-08
Figure 47: Trends in children-targeted new juice and juice drinks products, 2005-08
Caffeinated juices
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Figure 48: Media spending on select fruit juice and juice drinks brands, 2006 and 2007
Brand perception, communication, and orientation toward health benefits
Welch’s Grape Juice—positioning Concord grapes as an antioxidant-rich Superfruit
Figure 49: Welch’s Concord Grape Juice, Television Ad, 2008
POM Wonderful pomegranate juice—powerful antioxidants for heart health
Figure 50: POM Wonderful for heart health, Television Ad, 2008
Ocean Spray Grapefruit juice—antioxidants and invigorating
Figure 51: Ocean Spray grapefruit juice, Television Ad, 2008
Building trust with consumers
Simply Orange—Coca-Cola continues to build trust with “orange back” guarantee
Figure 52: Simply Orange, Television Ad, 2008
Nestlé Juicy Juice—setting standards comparable to motherhood
Figure 53: Nestlé Juicy Juice, Television Ad, 2008
Tropicana—promotes Valencia Orange Juice in competition with Simply Orange
Figure 54: Tropicana Valencia Orange Juice, Television Ad, 2008
THE PEOPLE: USAGE
Trends in household fruit juice/juice drinks consumption
Figure 55: Household juice/juice drinks consumption, by type, 2003-08
Who drinks fruit juice and juice drinks in household
Figure 56: Who personally drinks fruit juice and juice drinks and powdered juice drinks, October 2008
Frequency of use
Trends in frequency of consumption
Figure 57: Household frequency of drinking different types of juices on an average day, 2003-08
Figure 58: Household frequency* of drinking different types of juices, by key demographics, April 2007-June 2008
Brands of orange juice used
Figure 59: Brands of orange juice used in household, by age, May 2006-June 2007
ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Interest in trying new fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 60: Interest in trying new fruit juice and juice drinks, by age, October 2008
Impact of pricing and sales of purchase of fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 61: Impact of pricing and sales of purchase of fruit juice and juice drinks, by age, October 2008
Other attitudes towards fruit juice and juice drinks, including nutrition and packaging
Figure 62: POM Wonderful for heart health, Television Ad, 2008
Figure 63: Other attitudes towards fruit juice and juice drinks, by age, October 2008
Desirable attributes in fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 64: Attributes considered when buying fruit juice (100%), pre-prepared juice drinks, and powdered drinks, October 2008
CHANGE IN JUICE AND JUICE DRINK CONSUMPTION
Incidence of drinking more or less fruit juice/drinks compared to a year ago
Figure 65: Incidence of drinking more or less fruit juice and juice drinks compared to a year ago, by age, October 2008
Reasons for drinking more fruit juice and juice drinks today, compared to last year
Figure 66: Reasons for drinking more fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by age, October 2008
Reasons for drinking less fruit juice/juice drinks today, compared to last year
Figure 67: Reasons for drinking less fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by age, October 2008
Reasons consumers do not drink juice/juice drinks
Figure 68: Reasons for not drinking juice/juice drinks, by gender, October 2008
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Straight Juicers
Who they are
Opportunity
Pure Juicers
Who they are
Opportunity
All Juicers
Who they are
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 69: Fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 70: Incidence of purchasing fruit juice, pre-prepared juice drinks, and juice drinks mixes by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 71: Personal incidence of drinking fruit juice, pre-prepared juice drinks, and juice drinks mixes, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 72: Attributes considered when purchasing 100% fruit juices: by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 73: Choice of retail channels to purchase fruit juice and juice drinks for immediate consumption, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 74: Choice of retail channels to purchase fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 75: Interest in trying new fruit juice and juice drinks, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 76: Impact of pricing and sales on purchase of fruit juice and juice drinks, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 77: Other attitudes towards fruit juice and juice drinks, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Figure 78: Incidence of drinking more or less fruit juice compared to a year ago, by fruit juice clusters, October 2008
Cluster demographics
Figure 79: Fruit juice clusters by gender, October 2008
Figure 80: Fruit juice clusters by age group, October 2008
Figure 81: Fruit juice clusters by income group, October 2008
Figure 82: Fruit juice clusters by race, October 2008
Figure 83: Fruit juice clusters by Hispanic origin, October 2008
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS: HISPANICS BY INCOME OR LANGUAGE SPOKEN IN THE HOME
Who personally drinks fruit juice and juice drinks and powdered juice drinks
Figure 84: Who personally drinks fruit juice and juice drinks and powdered juice drinks, Hispanics by income, October 2008
Frequency of use: Hispanics
Figure 85: Number of glasses of different types of juices consumed by households, by language spoken in the home, April 2007-June 2008
Attitudes towards fruit juice/juice drinks
Figure 86: Attitude towards fruit juice and juice drinks, Hispanics by household income, October 2008
Incidence of drinking more or less fruit juice/drinks compared to a year ago
Figure 87: Incidence of drinking more or less fruit juice and juice drinks compared to a year ago, Hispanics by household income, October 2008
Where fruit juice/drinks are purchased for consumption at home
Figure 88: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by age, October 2008
IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA: KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 REFRIGERATED JUICES: KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview of refrigerated juices/drinks purchases
Refrigerated orange juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 89: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated orange juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 90: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated orange juice, by household penetration, 2008*
Refrigerated fruit drink—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 91: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated fruit drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 92: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated fruit drink, by household penetration, 2008*
Refrigerated blended fruit juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 93: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 94: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated blended fruit juice, by household penetration, 2008*
 SHELF-STABLE BOTTLED JUICES—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview of shelf-stable bottled juices
SS bottled fruit drink—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 95: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled fruit drink, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 96: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled fruit juice drinks, by household penetration, 2008*
SS bottled apple juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 97: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled apple juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 98: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled apple juice, by household penetration, 2008*
SS bottled fruit juice blend—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 99: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled fruit juice blend, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 100: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled fruit juice blend, by household penetration, 2008*
 ASEPTIC JUICES—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview of aseptic juices
Aseptic juice drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 101: Brand map, selected brands of aseptic juice drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 102: Key purchase measures for the top brands of aseptic juice drinks, by household penetration, 2008*
Aseptic juices—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 103: Brand map, selected brands of aseptic juices, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 104: Key purchase measures for the top brands of aseptic juices, by household penetration, 2008*
 SHELF-STABLE CANNED JUICES: KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview of SS canned juices
Canned juice drinks—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 105: Brand map, selected brands of SS canned juice drinks, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 106: Key purchase measures for the top brands of canned juice drinks, by household penetration, 2008*
Canned fruit juice— consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 107: Brand map, selected brands of canned fruit juice, buying rate by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 108: Key purchase measures for the top brands of canned fruit juice, by household penetration, 2008*
APPENDIX: STUDIES ON FRUIT JUICE
Studies linking negative influence of drinking fruit juice for children
Studies linking fruit juice with positive health benefits
Concord grapes and health benefits
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
 ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Attitudes towards fruit juice/juice drinks
Figure 109: Attitude towards fruit juice and juice drinks, by gender, October 2008
Figure 110: Attitude towards fruit juice and juice drinks, by race, October 2008
Figure 111: Attitude towards fruit juice and juice drinks, by gender, October 2008
Reasons for drinking more fruit juice/juice drinks today, compared to last year
Figure 112: Reasons for drinking more fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by gender, October 2008
Figure 113: Reasons for drinking more fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by gender, October 2008
Reasons for drinking less fruit juice/juice drinks today, compared to last year
Figure 114: Reasons for drinking less fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by gender, October 2008
Figure 115: Reasons for drinking less fruit juice and drinks today than last year, by presence of children, October 2008
Reasons consumers do not drink juice/juice drinks
Figure 116: Reasons for not drinking juice/juice drinks, by race, October 2008
Figure 117: Reasons for not drinking juice/juice drinks, by presence of children, October 2008
Desirable attributes in fruit juice and juice drinks
Figure 118: Desirable attributes in 100% fruit juice, October 2008
Figure 119: Desirable attributes in 100% fruit juice, October 2008
Figure 120: Desirable attributes in 100% fruit juice, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2008
Figure 121: Desirable attributes in 100% fruit juice, by income, October 2008
Figure 122: Desirable attributes in 100% fruit juice, by presence of children, October 2008
Figure 123: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for immediate consumption, by age, November 2008
Figure 124: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for immediate consumption, by race, November 2008
Figure 125: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for immediate consumption, by income
Figure 126: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for immediate consumption, by presence of children
Where fruit juice/drinks are purchased for consumption at home
Figure 127: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by age
Figure 128: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by race
Figure 129: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by income
Figure 130: Retail outlet used to buy fruit juice and juice drinks for at-home consumption, by presence of children, October 2008
APPENDIX: IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA, KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 REFRIGERATED JUICES
Refrigerated lemonade—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 131: Brand map, selected brands of refrigerated lemonade, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 132: Key purchase measures for the top brands of refrigerated lemonade, by household penetration, 2008*
 SHELF-STABLE BOTTLED JUICES
SS cranberry cocktail/juice drink—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 133: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail/juice drink, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 134: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled cranberry cocktail/juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
SS bottled lemon/lime juice—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 135: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled lemon/lime juice by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 136: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled lemon/lime juice, by household penetration, 2008*
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS bottled grape juice
Brand map
Figure 137: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled grape juice, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 138: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled grape juice, by household penetration, 2008*
SS cranberry juice/cranberry juice blend—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 139: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled cranberry juice/cranberry juice blend, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 140: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled cranberry juice/cranberry juice blend, by household penetration, 2008*
SS bottled lemonade—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 141: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled lemonade, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 142: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled lemonade, by household penetration, 2008*
SS bottled cider—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 143: Brand map, selected brands of SS bottled cider, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 144: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS bottled cider, by household penetration, 2008*
 FROZEN JUICES—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Overview of frozen juice purchases
Frozen orange juice concentrate—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 145: Brand map, selected brands of frozen orange juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 146: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen orange juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Frozen lemonade/limeade concentrate—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 147: Brand map, selected brands of frozen lemonade/limeade concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 148: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen lemonade/limeade concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Frozen drink/cocktail drink concentrate—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 149: Brand map, selected brands of frozen drink/cocktail drink concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 150: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen drink/cocktail drink concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Frozen apple juice concentrate—consumer insights on key purchase measures
Brand map
Figure 151: Brand map, selected brands of frozen apple juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 152: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen apple juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
 FROZEN BLENDED FRUIT JUICE CONCENTRATE
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—frozen blended fruit juice concentrate
Brand map
Figure 153: Brand map, selected brands of frozen blended fruit juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 154: Key purchase measures for the top brands of frozen blended fruit juice concentrate, by household penetration, 2008*
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS