Slow Travel - UK - January 2009

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Definitions
 ABBREVIATIONS
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
The new austerity
Life after debt
Slow travel agencies
Nomadic Exploration
Changing mind-sets
MARKET IN BRIEF
Feeling the pinch
Slow enthusiasts
There will be blood
Rail on track
Pleasures of the journey
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Tough times ahead
Figure 1: Overseas holidays volume and expenditure, 2003-08
Homeward bound?
Figure 2: Domestic holidays volume and expenditure, 2003-08
Alive and kicking
Figure 3: Scheduled passengers carried by main low-cost airlines, 2003-08
Package cuts
Figure 4: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays, by volume and value, 2003-08
Focused spending
Figure 5: Percentage of adults booking UK and overseas holidays, 2003-08
Short breaks under pressure
Figure 6: How long spent away on last holiday abroad, 2003-08
Volume growth dries up in Med
Figure 7: Overseas holidays, by region 2003-08
Is the long-haul party over?
Turkey grows fat on Spanish leftovers
Figure 8: Top 25 Holiday destinations, by estimated number of visits, 2003-08
Wait and see
Figure 9: How far ahead last holiday abroad was booked, 2003-08
Small change in spending patterns
Figure 10: How much spent on last holiday abroad, 2003-08
Plane vs train vs car
Figure 11: Price and journey time comparison of air vs rail vs tunnel/car travel, travelling February 2009
Rail ups its game…
…but still lags on longer trips
Load factor critical for cars
Figure 12: Price comparison of fly/drive vs tunnel/self-drive travelling February 2009
High-speed rail takes off
London-Amsterdam in 3.5 hours
Teamwork
Open access potential…
…but major doubts persist
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Squeeze on services
Figure 13: Trends in personal disposable income and consumer expenditure, 2003-13
Figure 14: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Index: Dec 2007-Nov 2008
End of easy oil
Figure 15: Crude oil prices, 2003-08
Implications for travel modes
Fluid and unpredictable
AB growth likely to boost slow travel
Figure 16: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2003-13
Empty nesters take it easy
Figure 17: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2003-13
Winning the short break battle
Figure 18: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2003-13
Currency takes centre stage
Figure 19: Sterling exchange rates at the beginning of each year, 2005-08
Slow counter-culture
Mainstream influence
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Figure 20: Total overseas trips, by mode, 2003-08
Fast vs slow travel
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE MARKET
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO'S INNOVATING?
Key points
Seat 61 fills gap in market
Rail groupies
Slow travel/food
Slow combo vs the aluminium sausage
Classic hols with a slow twist
Slow party
No more booze and fags
Luxury rail revival
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Past and present
Figure 21: Total slow travel holiday trips, 2003-13
Figure 22: Total overseas trips by slow travel mode, 2003-13
Future
 FACTORS USED IN THE FORECAST
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
French connection
Figure 23: Slow travel trips, by mode and destination, 2007
Northern light but little southern comfort
Figure 24: Slow travel share of total holiday market by destination 2003 and 2007
Booking window
Figure 25: How far ahead last holiday abroad by slow travel method was booked, 2003-08
Shorter breaks/lower value
Figure 26: How much spent on last holiday abroad, by slow travel method, 2003-08
Shorter tunnel/longer seas
Figure 27: How long spent away on last holiday abroad, by slow travel method, 2003-08
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Figure 28: Estimated overseas slow travel market share between UK and the Continent/Republic of Ireland 2008
Eurostar powers ahead
Struggle on the straits
Spanish steps
Stena strength
North Sea gets choppy
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
Overview
Figure 29: UK-overseas sea and tunnel crossing routes and operators, December 2008
Brittany Ferries
DFDS Seaways
E Rail
Eurostar
Eurotunnel
Great Rail Journeys
Page & Moy Holidays
Planet Rail
P&O Ferries
Rail Europe
SeaFrance
The Man in Seat 61
DISTRIBUTION
Key points
Agents eclipsed by DIY
Figure 30: How last holiday abroad was booked, 2003-08
Travel trade sticks to the skies
Figure 31: How last holiday abroad by ‘slow’ travel method was booked, 2003-08
WHO GOES WHERE?
Key points
Overseas vs domestic distinctions
Figure 32: All holidays taken in last 12 months, October 2008
Independent vs package
Figure 33: Type of package or independent holiday taken in last 12 months, October 2008
Multiple empty nesters
Figure 34: Number of holidays taken in last 12 months, October 2008
Beach seekers up north
Figure 35: Type of holiday abroad taken in last 12 months, October 2008
Slow second homers
WHO SPENDS WHAT?
Key points
High spending ABs
Figure 36: Cost of all holidays in uk (including transport, accomodation and spending) in last 12 months, October 2008
Figure 37: Cost of all holidays abroad (including transport, accomodation and spending) in last 12 months, October 2008
COST CONCERNS
Key points
Figure 38: Holiday intentions for next 12 months, October 2008
Drivers of change
Holiday cutbacks
Figure 39: How increase in expense would affect holiday intentions, October 2008
Value hunters
HOW DO TRAVELLERS FEEL ABOUT SLOWER MODES?
Key points
Challenging assumptions
Figure 40: Agreement with statements regarding holidays abroad, October 2008
Figure 41: Attitudes towards rail and sea travel, October 2008
Carbon credentials
Room with a view
Sea food wins out
Too slow but romantic
Rail explorers
Figure 42: Attitudes towards slow travel, October 2008
Heavy baggage
TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Target groups based on statements towards ‘slow travel’
Figure 43: Segmentation of attitudes towards slow travel into target groups, October 2008
Figure 44: Classification of attitudes towards slow travel and response to them, October 2008
Slow enthusiasts
Figure 45: Target groups’ enthusiasm for rail travel after open access in 2010, October 2008
Rail optimism
Rail romance
‘Short breakers’
Figure 46: Target groups’ enthusiasm for short breaks, October 2008
Curious but unconverted
‘Petrol heads’
Figure 47: Target groups’ enthusiasm for european self-drive touring holidays, October 2008
The open road
‘Off the rails’
Figure 48: Target groups’ agreement with statement: I am put off rail holidays abroad by bad rail services in the uk, October 2008
UK rail deterrent
‘Not interested’
APPENDIX – WHO GOES WHERE?
By demographics
Figure 49: All holidays taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 50: All UK, European and holidays abroad taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 51: Type of package or independent holiday taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 52: Place of package or independent holiday taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 53: Number of holidays taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 54: Type of holiday abroad taken in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
APPENDIX – WHO SPENDS WHAT?
By demographics
Figure 55: Cost of all holidays in uk (including transport, accomodation and spending) in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 56: Cost of all holidays abroad (including transport, accomodation and spending) in last 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
APPENDIX – COST CONCERNS
By demographics
Figure 57: Holiday intentions for next 12 months, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 58: How increase in expense would affect holiday intentions, by detailed demographics, October 2008
APPENDIX – HOW DO TRAVELLERS FEEL ABOUT SLOWER MODES?
Demographics
Figure 59: Agreement with statements regarding holidays abroad, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 60: Attitudes towards rail travel, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 61: Attitudes towards sea travel, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 62: Attitudes towards slow travel, by detailed demographics, October 2008
APPENDIX – TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Demographics
Figure 63: Target groups, by detailed demographics, October 2008
Figure 64: Target groups, by attitudes towards slow travel, October 2008
Figure 65: Target groups, by attitudes towards rail travel, October 2008
Figure 66: Target groups, by attitudes towards sea travel, October 2008
Figure 67: Target groups, by agreement with statements regarding holidays abroad, October 2008
Figure 68: Target groups, by attitudes towards changing travel habits if it became more expensive, October 2008