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Frozen Meals - US - September 2008

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Details regarding sources of consumer data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Flat growth—market not reaching new users
Competition is growing for convenient prepared meals
Segments struggle to diversify their image
Supermarket sales challenged by mass merchandisers
Factors impacting frozen meal sales
Top two suppliers declining; growth from smaller players
Nestlé and ConAgra targeting different demographics
Innovation driven by premium and health focuses
The frozen meals consumer
Habits and beliefs of the frozen meal consumer
What consumers want in frozen meals
Consumers align brands with certain images
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Honed demographic exploration
Opening up the children’s market
Men need…
Multi-serve meals pushing the nutritional angle
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Competition from categories within the retail environment
Figure 1: Growth of prepared meals, by storage type, 2003-08
The foodservice factor
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Mature market is challenged to produce significant growth
Frozen meals sales and forecast
Figure 2: Total U.S. sales and forecast of frozen meals, at current prices, 2003-13
Figure 3: Total U.S. sales and forecast of frozen meals, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2003-13
Wal-Mart sales
SEGMENT OVERVIEW
Key points
Convenience, health, and premium offerings support interest across all segments
Figure 4: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of frozen meals, at current prices, by segment, 2003-13
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SINGLE-SERVE FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Moving beyond diet focus
The double trend—nutritional and premium-slanted product lines
Figure 5: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of single-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2003-13
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—MULTI-SERVE FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Segment ready for the next big push in innovative multi-serve meals
Figure 6: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of multi-serve frozen meals, at current prices, 2003-13
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—FROZEN POT PIES
Key points
Quick-preparation pot pies pique interest, but have no staying power
Figure 7: U.S. FDMx sales and forecast of frozen pot pies, at current prices, 2003-13
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Mass merchandiser expansion driving sales in “other” outlets
Figure 8: U.S. sales of frozen meals, by retail channel, 2006 and 2008
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key point
Supermarkets sales grow incrementally—advantage: space and promotion
Figure 9: U.S. sales of frozen meals at supermarkets, 2003-08
MARKET DRIVERS
Exploring the child demographic: healthy kids’ meals
Figure 10: Population, by age, 2003-13
Targeting households without children
Figure 11: Households, by presence of children under age 18, 1996-2006
Figure 12: Households, by size, 1996-2006
Hispanic usage significantly lags that of other racial/ethnic groups
Figure 13: Household consumption of frozen meals, by race/Hispanic origin, 2003-08
Figure 14: Hispanic household consumption of frozen meals, by language spoken in the home, January-November 2007
Women want healthful meals—men want big portions and premium quality
Figure 15: Personal consumption of individual frozen meals and family-size frozen meals, by gender, July 2008
Figure 16: Types of individual frozen meals users would like to see more of, by gender, July 2008
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Heinz’s alliance with the well-known Weight Watchers diet plan supports growth
Private label gaining momentum in a mature category
Figure 17: FDMx sales of leading frozen meals companies, 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—SINGLE-SERVE FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Brands abort their diet image in favor of healthy living references
Swanson Classics and Marie Callender’s appeal to classic TV dinner eaters
Figure 18: FDMx brand sales of single-serve frozen meals in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—MULTI-SERVE FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Bertolli continues to build sales; Birds Eye gains recognition
ConAgra’s sales plummet as the novelty of crock pot meals wears off
Figure 19: FDMx brand sales of multi-serve frozen meals in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
BRAND SHARE—FROZEN POT PIES
Key point
Marie Callender’s brand cultivates a premium and wholesome identity
Figure 20: FDMx brand sales of frozen pot pies in the U.S., 2007 and 2008
BRAND QUALITIES
Nestlé successfully reaches out to women with Lean Cuisine
How has Lean Cuisine become the brand for women watching their weight?
Why do Lean Cuisine’s chief competitors not have as high alignment as a brand for women?
Stouffer’s and Marie Callender’s—premium brands, different consumers
Who does the Stouffer brand connect with?
Who does the Marie Callender’s brand connect with?
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
Convenience remains the cornerstone of innovation
New products focus on premium stance
Health and wellness drive innovation
Figure 21: Healthy Choice Café Steamers, 2008
Figure 22: Smart Ones Fruit Inspirations, 2008
Top 10 frozen prepared meals product launches
Figure 23: Top 10 frozen prepared meals product launches, by product claim, 2003-08
Innovator Spotlight: Private Label
Figure 24: Top brands in new product launches for frozen prepared meals in the U.S., 2007 and 2008*
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
 OVERVIEW
Demographic target: Moms/family
Figure 25: Banquet Crock Pot Classics, 2008
Figure 26: Nestlé’s Stouffer Dinners, 2008
Demographic target: Adults/couples
Figure 27: Marie Callender’s Chicken Pot Pie, 2008
Figure 28: Marie Callender’s Country Fried Chicken Dinner, 2008
Figure 29: Bertolli Frozen Dinners, 2008
Demographic target: Women
Figure 30: Lean Cuisine, 2008
Figure 31: Lean Cuisine, 2008
Demographic target: Men
Figure 32: Swanson Hungry-Man, 2008
FAST FORWARD TRENDS
Extend my brand
What's it about?
Specifics
Implications
Home of the Senses
What's It About?
What we've seen
Specifics
Implications
THE CONSUMER: PERSONAL AND HOUSEHOLD USAGE OF FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Personal consumption of frozen meals
Figure 33: Personal consumption of individual frozen meals and family-size frozen meals, by gender, July 2008
Figure 34: Personal consumption of individual frozen meals and family-size frozen meals, by age, July 2008
Household consumption of frozen meals
Figure 35: Household consumption of frozen meals, 2003-08
TV dinners
Figure 36: Household usage of frozen complete (TV) dinners, by household size, marital status, and race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
Figure 37: Household usage of frozen complete (TV) dinners, by key cohorts, February 2007-March 2008
Frozen main courses
Figure 38: Household usage of frozen main courses, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2007-March 2008
Figure 39: Household usage of frozen main courses, by key cohorts, February 2007-March 2008
Brands of frozen meals used
Figure 40: Top 10 brands of frozen complete (TV) dinners used in household, February 2007-March 2008
Figure 41: Top 10 brands of frozen main courses used in household, February 2007-March 2008
Mean number of frozen meals eaten in past month
Figure 42: Mean number of frozen meals consumed in last month, February 2007-March 2008
THE CONSUMER: ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS REGARDING FROZEN MEALS
Key points
Reasons for eating individual frozen meals
Figure 43: Reasons for eating individual frozen meals, 2007 and 2008
Figure 44: Reasons for eating individual frozen meals, by gender, July 2008
Figure 45: Reasons for eating individual frozen meals, by age, July 2008
FROZEN MEALS: RETAIL CHANNEL PREFERENCES
Figure 46: Where frozen meals are bought, by number of people in the household, July 2008
FROZEN MEALS: TYPES CONSUMERS WANT TO SEE MORE OF
Key points
Individual frozen meals
Figure 47: Types of individual frozen meals users would like to see more of, 2007 and 2008
Figure 48: Types of individual frozen meals users would like to see more of, by gender, July 2008
Family-size frozen meals
Figure 49: Types of family-size frozen meals users would like to see more of, 2007 and 2008
Figure 50: Types of family-size frozen meals users would like to see more of, by gender, July 2008
Figure 51: Types of family-size frozen meals users would like to see more of, by number of people in the household, July 2008
Type of ethnic foods consumer want to see more of
Figure 52: Types of ethnic food you would like to see more of in frozen meal choices, 2007 and 2008
Family-size frozen meals: specific behaviors
Figure 53: Purchasing and serving behaviors among those who use family-size frozen meals, 2007 and 2008
OPINIONS ABOUT SPECIFIC FROZEN MEAL BRANDS
Brand analysis, part I
Figure 54: Opinions about specific frozen meal brands, July 2008
Brand analysis, part II
Figure 55: Opinions about health/diet frozen meal brands, July 2008
THE CONSUMER: TEENS’ AND KIDS’ FROZEN DINNER USAGE
Teen consumption of frozen dinners
Figure 56: Teen consumption of frozen complete dinners, by gender and race/Hispanic origin, January-November 2007
Brands of frozen meals eaten among teens
Figure 57: Top 10 brands of frozen dinners eaten by teens, January-November 2007
Mean number of frozen meals eaten by teens in past month
Figure 58: Mean number of frozen dinners consumed in last month among teens, January-November 2007
Kids’ consumption of frozen dinners
Figure 59: Kids’ consumption of frozen complete dinners, by gender and race/Hispanic origin, January-November 2007
CUSTOM GROUPS: MOMS AND CHILDLESS FEMALES
Personal consumption of frozen meals
Figure 60: Personal consumption of individual frozen meals and family-size frozen meals, by moms and childless females, July 2008
Reasons for eating individual frozen meals
Figure 61: Reasons for eating individual frozen meals, by moms and childless females, July 2008
What women would like to see more of
Individual meals
Figure 62: Types of individual frozen meals users would like to see more of, by moms and childless females, July 2008
Family meals
Figure 63: Types of family-size frozen meals users would like to see more of, by moms and childless females, July 2008
IRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
Brand map
Single Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Single Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées Buying Rate Analysis
Multi-Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Multi-Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées Buying Rate Analysis
IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA
Consumer insights—Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Single-Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Brand leaders by penetration
Multi-Serve Frozen Dinners/Entrées
Brand leaders by penetration
Figure 64: Key purchase measures for the top frozen single-serve dinners/entrées and multi-serve dinners/entrées brands, by household penetration, *2007
APPENDIX: IRI/BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

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