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Cakes and Cake Bars - UK - June 2008

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Key themes
Definitions
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Cooking up a treat in-store
Celebratory cupcakes
Adult occasions
FAST FORWARD TRENDS
 TREND 1: FIT OR FAT
What's it about?
What we've seen
Implications
What next?
 TREND 2: CUSTOMIZATION
What's it about?
What we've seen
What next?
MARKET IN BRIEF
Strong growth continues
Healthy eating vs indulgence
A convenient option
Looking forward
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Healthy eating divide
Figure 1: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, 2003-07
Grabbing a bite
Season’s greetings
Home baking is back
Mistaken identity
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Raw material prices rocket
A childhood treat
Standing alone
Figure 2: Breakdown of UK household sizes, 2003-13
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Healthy indulgence
Figure 3: Summary of market strategies in other snack food markets, 2008
Figure 4: Summary of market strategies in desserts, 2008
Home baking
Figure 5: Summary of market strategy in home baking, 2008
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE MARKET
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Supermarkets steal a slice of the action
Figure 6: Number of new product launches of cakes and cake bars, 2003-08
A healthy perspective
Figure 7: Top ten positioning claims of cakes and cake bars launches, UK, 2007/08*
Treat yourself
Free from additives and allergens
A real celebration
Changing with the seasons
Global trends
Possible future trends
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Active indulgence
Figure 8: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, at current and constant prices, 2003-08
Figure 9: Percentage of change year on year in value, 2004-08
Unwrapped revival
Figure 10: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by sector, 2005 and 2007
The future
 FORECAST
Healthy growth set to continue
Figure 11: Forecast of uk retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2003-13
Consumers trade up
Individually wrapped cakes and cake bars drive growth
Unwrapped bites back
Figure 12: Forecast of uk retail value sales of wrapped cakes and cake bars, 2003-13
Figure 13: Forecast of uk retail value sales of unwrapped cakes, 2003-13
Factors used in the forecast
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
 WRAPPED CAKES
Large cakes
Sales stagnate
Figure 14: UK retail value sales of wrapped large cakes, excluding occasion cakes, 2003-08
The demise of the tart
Figure 15: UK retail value sales of large cakes, by type, 2005 and 2007
 OCCASION CAKES
No longer a cause for celebration
Figure 16: UK retail value sales of occasion cakes, 2003-08
 INDIVIDUAL CAKES AND CAKE BARS
Eat and go
Figure 17: UK retail value sales of individual cakes and cake bars, 2003-08
A slice of the action
Figure 18: UK retail value sales of individual cakes and cake bars, by type, 2005 and 2007
 UNWRAPPED CAKES
On the up
Figure 19: UK retail value sales of unwrapped cakes, 2003-08
MARKET SHARE
Key points
 A PREMIER FORCE
Figure 20: Manufacturer and brand value shares in wrapped cakes, 2005 and 2007
Own-label gains
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
 PREMIER FOODS
Mr Kipling
Figure 21: The Mr Kipling cake range, 2008
Cadbury Cakes
Figure 22: Cadbury’s Cakes range, 2008
Lyons
 UNITED BISCUITS
The McVitie’s Cake Company
Figure 23: The McVitie’s cake range, 2008
 GREENCORE
 INTER LINK FOODS
 FINSBURY FOOD GROUP
Memory Lane Cakes
Lightbody
Anthony Alan Foods
 THE FABULOUS BAKIN’ BOYS
 OTHER COMPANIES
BRAND ELEMENTS
 BRAND MAP
Figure 24: Attitudes and usage of cake brands, Ma y 2008
 CADBURY
What the brand is trying to achieve.
What the consumer thinks
Figure 25: Attitudes towards the Cadbury brand, May 2008
 MR KIPLING
What the brand is trying to achieve.
What the consumer thinks
Figure 26: Attitudes towards the Mr Kipling brand, May 2008
 MRS CRIMBLE’S
What the brand is trying to achieve.
What the consumer thinks
Figure 27: Attitudes towards the Mrs Crimble’s brand, May 2008
 THE FABULOUS BAKIN’ BOYS
What the brand is trying to achieve.
What the consumer thinks
Figure 5: Attitudes towards the The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys brand, May 2008
 BRAND QUALITIES OF CAKE BRANDS
Cadbury’s chocolate indulgence; Weight Watcher dieting, no thanks!
Figure 28: Personalities of various cake brands, May 2008
 EXPERIENCE OF CAKE BRANDS
Lyons still popular, but tired
Figure 29: Consumer usage of various cake brands, May 2008
 BRAND INTENTIONS FOR CAKE BRANDS
Lyons most considered, Memory Lane – something to remember?
Figure 30: Consideration of various cake brands, April 2008
 BRAND MOMENTUM FOR CAKE BRANDS
Health edging up the agenda?
Figure 31: Momentum of various cake brands, May 2008
 BRAND SATISFACTION FOR CAKE BRANDS
Lyons and Fabulous Bakin’ Boys show good satisfaction behind leaders.
Figure 32: Satisfaction with various cake brands, May 2008
 BRAND COMMITMENT TO CAKE BRANDS
The Fabulous Bakin’ Boys and go ahead have some alienated customers to attend to.
Figure 33: Commitment to various cake brands, May 2008
 ROUND UP
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Fancy a piggy-back?
Figure 34: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on cakes and fruit pies*, 2005-08
Retailer revolution
Figure 35: Main monitored advertising spend by cakes and cake bars manufacturers, 2005-07
Brand support is light
Figure 36: Main monitored media advertising expenditure on selected brands, 2007
Below-the-line activity
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Multiple options
Figure 37: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by outlet, 2005 and 2007
A sense of order
Making the most of in-store bakeries
THE CONSUMER – TRENDS IN CONSUMPTION
Key points
Figure 38: Consumption of fresh/packeted cakes in the last 12 months, 2003-07
Cake sector lost buyers
Figure 39: Users of fresh/packeted cakes, by gender, socio-economic group and lifestage, 2007
Heavy usage felt significantly
It’s an age thing
Weight-conscious women
On a tight budget
Figure 40: Breakdown of frequency of eating fresh/packeted cakes, by socio-economic status, 2007
THE CONSUMER – EATING OCCASIONS
Key points
Figure 41: Eating occasions for cakes and cake bars, February 2008
Home comforts for cakes
Men’s opportunities
Cake bars for packed lunch
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES
Key points
Figure 42: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, February 2008
Women aged 25-34 acting on impulse
A healthy boost for young women
Quality not quantity for affluent consumers
THE CONSUMER – FURTHER ANALYSIS
Key points
Cake choices
Figure 43: Eating/serving of cakes and cake bars, February 2008
Key consumer targets to extend eating occasions
Figure 44: Number of occasions when cakes and cake bars are eaten/served, February 2008
Encourage males and over-45s to eat cakes on more eating occasions
Encourage C2DEs to increase cake bars eating occasions
Families represent strong users of cake bars
APPENDIX
Abbreviations
APPENDIX: THE CONSUMER – TRENDS IN CONSUMPTION
Figure 45: Consumption of fresh/packeted cakes in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel’s Special groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2005 and 2007
Figure 46: Frequency of consumption of fresh/packeted cakes in the last 12 months, by gender, age, socio-economic group, marital status, lifestage, presence of children, Mintel’s Special groups, working status, tenure, region, ACORN category, technology usage, household size and car ownership, 2007
APPENDIX: THE CONSUMER – EATING OCCASIONS
Figure 47: Eating occasions for cakes, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
Figure 48: Eating occasions for cakes, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
Figure 49: Eating occasions for cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
Figure 50: Eating occasions for cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
APPENDIX: THE CONSUMER- ATTITUDES
Figure 51: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
Figure 52: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, working status, daily newspaper readership, presence of children, Internet usage and supermarket usage, February 2008
APPENDIX: THE CONSUMER – FURTHER ANALYSIS
Cake choices
Figure 53: Eating/serving of cakes and cake bars, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, daily newspaper readership, media usage, presence of children, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, February 2008
Cake eating occasions
Figure 54: Number of occasions when cakes are eaten/served, by occasions, February 2008
Figure 55: Number of occasions when cakes are eaten/served, by attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, February 2008
Figure 56: Number of occasions when cakes are eaten/served, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, daily newspaper readership, media usage, presence of children, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, February 2008
Cake bar eating occasions
Figure 57: Number of occasions when cake bars are eaten/served, by occasions, February 2008
Figure 58: Number of occasions when cake bars are eaten/served, by attitudes towards cakes/cake bars, February 2008
Figure 59: Number of occasions when cakes are eaten/served, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, daily newspaper readership, media usage, presence of children, commercial TV viewing and supermarket usage, February 2008

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