Carbonated Drinks - US - April 2007

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market at a glance
Consumers cut soda consumption due to obesity issues and health and wellness trends
Key soda drinkers migrate to energy drinks
Diet soda sales plummet in 2005 for the first time during 2001-06
Major manufacturers diversify ready-to-drink NCB portfolio
Carbonated drinks consumers
Adult consumers
Teen consumers
Child consumers
Functional soda may revive future sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Obesity and health concerns—major criteria in choosing beverages
Obesity among adults
Figure 1: Reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, February 2007
Figure 2: Incidence of people currently dieting or spending most of their time trying to lose weight by dieting, 2002-06
Figure 3: Incidence of people drinking regular soda among respondents currently dieting or most of time trying to lose weight by dieting, 2002-06
Figure 4: Percentage of population who are overweight or obese, 20-74 years of age, 1988-2004
Obesity among children
Figure 5: Prevalence of obesity among children aged 6-19 years, 1971-02
Figure 6: Incidence of soda and ready-to-drink NCB consumption among children aged 6-11, 2002-06
Figure 7: Growth in school beverage sales, 2002-04
Competition from other beverages
Teen and young adults—the key demographic for soda—migrate to energy drinks
Figure 8: Incidence of drinking carbonated drinks and energy drinks, adults and teens, January-October 2006
Healthy NCBs pose tough competition for soda
Figure 9: Consumption of ready-to-drink NCBs and soda by adults, teens, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 10: Per capita consumption of carbonated beverages, bottled water and sports drinks, 2000-04
Demographic influence
Children and teens impact sales of carbonated drinks
Figure 11: Consumption of soda by adults, teens, and pre-teens, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 12: U.S. children and teen population and projections, 2001-11
Young adults drink regular soda, aging adults drink diet soda
Figure 13: Consumption of soda, by type of soda, by age, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 14: U.S. population and projections, 2001-11
Blacks and Hispanics, too, drive market growth
Figure 15: Consumption of carbonated drinks, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 16: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2001-11
Innovations drive short-term growth
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
 MARKET SIZE
Figure 17: Total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Figure 18: Price per fluid ounce of carbonated beverages at FDM, 2001-06
Wal-Mart estimate
Figure 19: Number of regular stores and supercenters operated by Wal-Mart, FY 2001-05
Volume sales
Figure 20: FDM* volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, 2001-06
 MARKET TRENDS
Figure 21: New carbonated drinks releases, 2001-06
Figure 22: New carbonated drinks, claims, 2001-06
New flavors and formulations
Figure 23: New carbonated drinks, flavors, 2001-06
Limited edition
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Introduction
Figure 24: FDM sales of carbonated beverages, segmented by type, 2004 and 2006
Regular carbonated drinks
Figure 25: FDM sales of regular soft drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Diet carbonated drinks
Figure 26: FDM sales of diet soft drinks, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Figure 27: reasons for drinking less diet soda today than a year ago, by gender, February 2007
Seltzer/tonic water/club soda
Figure 28: FDM sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
SUPPLY STRUCTURE
Major manufacturers diversifying their portfolio to include NCBs
 COMPANY AND BRAND SALES
Figure 29: FDM sales of Manufacturers in the carbonated beverage market in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
Regular carbonated drinks
Figure 30: Selected brand sales and market share of major regular carbonated drinks at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
Diet carbonated drinks
Figure 31: Selected brand sales and market share of major diet carbonated drinks at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
Seltzer/tonic water/club soda
Figure 32: Selected brand sales and market share of seltzer/tonic water/club soda at FDM* in the U.S., 2004 and 2006
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Introduction
Coca-Cola
Figure 33: Coke—TV ad: “You Give a Little Love....”, 2006
Figure 34: Coke—TV ad, First Coke, 2006
Figure 35: Sprite—SubLYMONal
PepsiCo
Figure 36: Mountain Dew—Martial Arts
Cadbury Schweppes North America
Figure 37: Dr Pepper—“Love Is Like Candy on a Shelf”
Figure 38: 7 UP—All Natural
RETAIL DISTRIBUTION
Introduction
Figure 39: U.S. retail sales of carbonated beverages, by channel, 2004 and 2006
Supermarkets
Figure 40: U.S. supermarket sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Drug stores
Figure 41: U.S. drug store sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Mass and other
Figure 42: U.S. mass and other sales of carbonated beverages, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
THE CONSUMER—CONSUMPTION
Introduction
Summary
Adult consumers
Teen consumers
Child consumers
 ADULT CONSUMPTION OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES
All carbonated beverages
Figure 43: Incidence of soda consumption among adults, 2002-06
Figure 44: Incidence of any carbonated beverage drinking, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Regular cola
Figure 45: Incidence of regular (non-diet) cola drinking, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 46: Incidence of regular (non-diet) cola drinking, by most likely using cohorts, Jan-Oct 2006
Regular cola brands
Figure 47: Brands of regular cola used, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 48: Brands of regular cola used, by selected cohorts, Jan-Oct 2006
Frequency of regular cola consumption
Figure 49: Frequency of regular cola consumption, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 50: Mean frequency of regular cola consumption, by selected demographic characteristics, Jan-Oct 2006
Regular non-cola
Figure 51: Incidence of regular (non-diet) cola vs non-cola drinking, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 52: Incidence of regular non-cola drinking, by most likely using cohorts, Jan-Oct 2006
Regular non-cola brands
Figure 53: Brands of regular non-cola soft drinks used, by age and race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 54: Brands of regular non-cola soft drinks used, by selected cohorts, Jan-Oct 2006
Frequency of drinking regular non-cola carbonated beverages
Figure 55: Frequency of regular non-cola consumption, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 56: Mean frequency of regular non-cola consumption, by selected demographic characteristics, Jan-Oct 2006
Diet cola
Figure 57: Incidence of diet cola drinking, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 58: Incidence of diet cola drinking, by most likely using cohorts, Jan-Oct 2006
Diet cola brands
Figure 59: Brands of diet cola used, by age, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 60: Brands of diet cola used, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
Frequency of drinking diet cola
Figure 61: Frequency of diet cola consumption, Jan-Oct 2006
Diet non-cola
Figure 62: Incidence of other diet carbonated beverages (not cola) drinking, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Diet non-cola brands
Figure 63: Brands of non-cola diet soft drink used, by age, Jan-Oct 2006
Figure 64: Brands of non-cola diet soft drink, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
Frequency of drinking diet non-cola carbonated drinks
Figure 65: Frequency of other (non-cola) diet soft drink consumption, Jan-Oct 2006
Sparkling waters, seltzers, and natural soda
Figure 66: Incidence of drinking sparkling waters, seltzers, and natural soda, by race/ethnicity, Jan-Oct 2006
 TEEN CONSUMPTION OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Regular soft drinks
Figure 67: Incidence of drinking soda among teens, 2002-06
Figure 68: Incidence of regular (non- diet) cola and other regular carbonated drink drinking among teens, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Regular soft drink consumption by brand usage
Figure 69: Brands of regular soft drinks used, adults vs teens, Jan-Oct 2006
Frequency of drinking regular soft drinks
Figure 70: Frequency of regular soft drink consumption, by teens Jan-Oct 2006
Diet soft drinks
Figure 71: Incidence of diet cola and other diet carbonated drink drinking among teens, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
Sparkling waters/seltzers/natural sodas
Figure 72: Incidence of sparkling water/seltzer/natural soda drinking among teens by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
 CHILDREN’S CONSUMPTION OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Figure 73: Incidence of regular (non-diet) vs other regular carbonated drinks drinking, among children, by key demographics, Jan-Oct 2006
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOR
Capsule summary
Reasons for drinking less soda
Reasons for drinking more soda
Reasons for trying new products
Perception of carbonated beverages
Incidence of drinking more or less regular soda compared to a year ago
Figure 74: Incidence of drinking more or less regular soda compared to a year ago, by age, February 2007
Reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago
Figure 75: reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, by gender, February 2007
Figure 76: reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, by age, February 2007
Figure 77: reasons for drinking less regular soda today than a year ago, by presence of children, February 2007
Incidence of drinking more or less diet soda compared to a year ago
Figure 78: Incidence of drinking more or less diet soda compared to a year ago, by age, February 2007
Reasons for drinking less diet soda than a year ago
Figure 79: reasons for drinking less diet soda today than a year ago, by gender, February 2007
Figure 80: reasons for drinking less diet soda today than a year ago, by age, February 2007
 REASONS FOR DRINKING MORE SODA THAN A YEAR AGO
Figure 81: Reasons for drinking more soda, February 2007
 REASONS FOR TRYING NEW BEVERAGES
Figure 82: Reasons for trying new beverages, February 2007
Figure 83: Interest in various beverages/beverage types, February 2007
 ATTITUDES TOWARD CARBONATED DRINKS
Figure 84: Selected attitudes toward carbonated drinks, February 2007
FUTURE AND FORECAST
 FUTURE TRENDS
Ongoing health and weight issues
Children
Figure 85: Frequency of soda consumption among children aged 6-11 who drink carbonated drinks, 2002-06
Figure 86: U.S. children and teen population and projections, 2001-2011
Adults
Changing beverage preferences
Demographic trends
Young adults and teens
Figure 87: U.S. population of teens and young adults aged 12-34, by age, 2000-11
Hispanics and blacks—positive population growth
Figure 88: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2001-11
Innovation geared towards functional soda
Major manufacturers are shifting their focus to NCBs
 MARKET FORECAST
Carbonated drinks market
Figure 89: Forecast of total U.S. retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, including Wal-Mart, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Regular carbonated drinks
Figure 90: Forecast of FDM* sales of regular soft drinks, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Diet carbonated drinks
Figure 91: Forecast of FDM* sales of diet soft drinks, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Seltzer/tonic water/club soda
Figure 92: Forecast of FDM* sales of seltzer/tonic water/club soda, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Forecast factors
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS
APPENDIX: SIMMONS COHORTS
Figure 93: Married couples cohorts
Figure 94: Single women cohorts
Figure 95: Single men cohorts
Omega cohorts