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Red Meat - US - October 2006

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Definition
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Snapshot of the market
Principal factors driving red meat consumption
Principal issues impacting red meat consumption
Where consumers are buying meat
What makes consumers choose the meat they do
What the future holds
MARKET DRIVERS
Number of beef eaters rises despite price hikes
Figure 1: U.S. population projections and number of beef eaters, by age, 2001-11
Population trends and dietary guidelines push demand for high-priced lean meat
Figure 2: Preference for specific ground beef formulations, lean %, by gender, August 2006
Figure 3: Fastest-growing categories in meat case by % participants in survey, 2006
Fish and poultry encroach on red meat
Retaining consumer loyalty to beef
Growing Hispanic population fuels beef sales
Figure 4: U.S. Hispanic population projections and number of red meat eaters, by age, 2001-11
Translating the significance of the Hispanic consumer
Figure 5: Incidence of red meat consumption, by race, 2001-11
Ethnic diversity fuels demand for different meats
Overview
Figure 6: Animal protein purchasing & consumption indices among U.S. households, 2006
Lamb and goat meat
Specialty meats
 FOOD SAFETY
BSE (mad cow) drives natural, organic meat alternatives
Figure 7: Growth of menu items using natural, naturally raised or organic claims, Q1 2005 - Q2 2006
Figure 8: Leading conscious marketing claims on menu items by animal protein, August 2006
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
 MARKET SIZE
Figure 9: Total U.S. retail sales of beef, pork and lamb, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Figure 10: Graph: Total U.S. retail sales of beef, pork and lamb, at current and constant prices, 2001-06
 MARKET TRENDS
Per capita consumption of competitive proteins increases
Figure 11: U.S. per capita volume consumption of leading proteins, 2001-05
Figure 12: Consumer price indices for red meat, poultry and seafood, 2003-05
Niche meats, multiple attributes and supplier brands
Re-shaping the meat case
Reshaping the menu
Figure 13: New menu item introductions, by ethnicity of cuisine and % of new items, Q1 2005 – Q2 2006
Figure 14: Representation of ethnic cuisine on U.S. menus, August 2006
Figure 15: Top ten ingredients used in Asian-style cuisine in U.S. restaurants, by incidence of usage, August 2006
Figure 16: Leading ingredient usage in Mexican influenced cuisine in U.S. restaurants, by incidence of use August 2006
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Overview
Figure 17: U.S. retail sales of red meat, segmented by beef, pork and lamb, 2004 and 2006
Figure 18: U.S. retail sales of red meat, segmented by beef, pork and lamb, 2004 and 2006
Figure 19: Average price per pound of beef, pork and lamb at retail, 2001-06
Beef
Figure 20: U.S. retail sales of beef at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Pork
Figure 21: U.S. retail sales of pork at current and constant prices, 2001-06
Lamb
Figure 22: U.S. retail sales of lamb at current and constant prices, 2001-06
SUPPLY STRUCTURE
 FOREIGN TRADE
Imports of beef, pork and lamb
Figure 23: Imports of fresh, frozen and chilled red meat, 2003 and 2005
Figure 24: U.S. imports of beef—top source countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
Figure 25: U.S. imports of pork—top source countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
Figure 26: U.S. imports of lamb, mutton, goat—top source countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
Exports of beef, pork and lamb
Figure 27: U.S. total exports of beef, pork, lamb, 2003 and 2005
Figure 28: U.S. exports of beef—top destination countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
Figure 29: U.S. exports of pork—top destination countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
Figure 30: U.S. exports of lamb & mutton—top destination countries/regions, 2003 and 2005
 COMPANY AND BRAND SALES
Figure 31: Leading U.S. companies active in the red meat segment of the U.S. market, 2005
Figure 32: Leading companies in beef segment of the U.S. meat market, 2005
Figure 33: Leading U.S. companies in the pork segment of the U.S. meat market, 2005
Figure 34: Leading companies in the lamb/veal segment of the U.S. meat market, 2005
 COMPANY PROFILES
Tyson Foods Inc.
Cargill Meat Solutions
Smithfield Foods
Swift & Company
Sara Lee Corporation
 NATURAL AND ORGANIC, FROZEN AND REFRIGERATED, MEAT COMPANIES AND BRANDS
Overview
Leading natural and organic brands
Figure 35: Leading U.S. natural and organic frozen and refrigerated meat/poultry brands, natural and organic channel*, 2006
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Beef
Litigation changes beef advertising strategy
Value Cuts program
Pork
Figure 36: American Pork Producers TV spot showing animated pork characters, 2006
Targeting the Hispanic community
Figure 37: American Pork Producers TV spot showing animated pork characters, 2006
Pork in the family
Figure 38: Ad for Clifty farm showing pork as part of a traditional family meal
Pork Racing
Lamb
RETAIL DISTRIBUTION
Introduction
Figure 39: U.S. retail sales of red meat, by channel, 2004 and 2006
Mass merchandisers, supercenters post huge gains
Figure 40: Total sales of warehouse/ wholesale clubs, 2004 and 2005
Natural and organic channels
Figure 41: Retail sales of organic meat/poultry through natural and organic retail food stores, 2003-05
Farm direct and direct to consumer sales
Figure 42: Growth in leading ethical claims on menu, Q1 2005 – Q2 2006
THE CONSUMER
Introduction
Summary
Key trends
Beef purchasing trends
Food safety concerns
Recommendations based on consumer research
Meat, poultry and seafood preferences
Figure 43: Average number of times meat/fish consumed per month, by gender, August 2006
Figure 44: Average number of times meat/fish consumed per month, by age, August 2006
Figure 45: Average number of times meat/fish consumed per month, by household income, August 2006
Figure 46: Average number of times meat/fish consumed per month, by race/ethnicity, August 2006
Figure 47: Average number of times meat/fish consumed per month, by educational attainment, August 2006
Attitudes toward red meat
Figure 48: Attitudes toward health, ethics and safety of red meat consumption, by gender, August 2006
Figure 49: Attitudes toward health, ethics and safety of red meat consumption, by race/ethnicity, August 2006
Beef consumption patterns
Figure 50: Eating more, less, the same amount of beef compared to two years ago, by gender, August 2006
Figure 51: Eating more, less, the same amount of beef compared to 2 years ago , by race/ethnicity, august 2006
Figure 52: Eating more, less, the same amount of beef compared to 2 years ago , by age, august 2006
Figure 53: Eating more, less, the same amount of beef compared to 2 years ago , by geographic region. august 2006
Reasons for eating less beef
Figure 54: Factors influencing lower beef consumption, August 2006
Figure 55: Factors influencing lower beef consumption, by age, August 2006
Figure 56: Factors influencing lower beef consumption, by household income, August 2006
Preferences for specific cuts of beef
Figure 57: Preference for specific beef cuts, by gender, August 2006
Figure 58: Preference for specific beef cuts, by household income, August 2006
Figure 59: Beef consumption patterns, by race/ethnicity, August 2006
Ground beef
Figure 60: Preference for specific ground beef formulations, by gender, August 2006
Figure 61: Preference for specific ground beef formulations, by age, August 2006
FUTURE AND FORECAST
 FUTURE TRENDS
Demographic changes will determine food choice
Age
Education, awareness and food choice
The impact of income—at home purchases
The impact of income—away from home food expenditures
Figure 62: Projected growth of at home versus away from home food expenditures, 2000-20
Ethnic diversity reshapes the demand for food
Figure 63: Leading cuisine styles of newly menued items, Q1 2005 – Q2 2006
Figure 64: Top 10 newly menued ingredients on U.S. menu*, Q1 2005 – Q2 2006
Heritage foods
Halal meats
Animal rights
 MARKET FORECAST
Red meat
Figure 65: Forecast of total U.S. sales of red meat, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Beef
Figure 66: Forecast of U.S. sales of beef, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Pork
Figure 67: Forecast of U.S. sales of pork, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Lamb
Figure 68: Forecast of U.S. sales of lamb, at current and constant prices, 2006-11
Forecast factors
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
APPENDIX: NEW PRODUCT BRIEFS
Albertson’s Steakhouse Choice: Premium Angus Beef Sliced Brisket
President’s Choice: Thick and Juicy Prime Rib Beef Patties
Albertsons Steakhouse Choice: Pub Style Burgers
Ganaderia Integral Vizur: SuKarne Seasoned Skirt Steak
Roundy’s: Beef Franks
ConAgra Food, Armour: Spaghetti Meatballs
Sara Lee Food & Beverage: Emeril’s Gourmet Smoked Sausages with Cheddar Cheese
Mi Quinta Foods: Traditional Cooked Pork

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