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Breakfast Cereals - UK - February 2006

INTRODUCTION AND ABBREVIATIONS
Definitions
Consumer research
ACORN
 ABBREVIATIONS
PREMIER INSIGHT
Frequency of consumption is in decline; limited to leisurely weekends?
Cupboard-tidy and fresh-keeping mums happy
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Moderate but sustained growth
Health is first priority
Promotion from within
Sophisticated tastes
Hot stuff
Kellogg’s remains at the top
…but Weetabix is the biggest seller
Quaker leads drive in hot cereals…
Total adspend tops £80 million in 2005
The consumer
Future and forecast
MARKET FACTORS
Historical context
Parent’s role as ultimate decision-maker
Figure 1: Attitudes towards children’s diet, February 2005
Peer pressure of a different sort
Figure 2: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by children aged 11-16, 2005
Figure 3: Agreement with selected lifestyle statements, by children aged 7-10, 2005
The population dilemma
Figure 4: Changes in the UK child population, by age and gender, 2000, 2005 and 2010
Food labelling
Children’s Food Bill
Competition looms large
Figure 5: Number of new Breakfast-oriented products, Jan 2004-06
Organic growth
MARKET SIZE
Steady growth for a mature market
Figure 6: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, 2000-05
Value just slightly ahead of volume
Figure 7: Indexed sales of breakfast cereals, by volume and value at current and constant prices, 2000-05
The cereal bar threat
A hot cereal revival
Figure 8: UK retail volume and value sales of breakfast cereal, by type, 2001, 2003 and 2005
A passion for porridge
MARKET SEGMENTATION
RTE growth over-shadowed by hot cereals
Figure 9: UK retail volume and value sales of RTE cereal, 2000-05
Muesli offers indulgence
Hot cereals heat up
Figure 10: UK retail volume and value sales of hot cereal, 2000-05
Instant halo effect
Figure 11: UK retail volume sales of hot cereal, by type, 2001, 2003 and 2005
BRAND ACTIVITY
Branded is better, according to consumers
Figure 12: Consumption of branded & supermarket own-label breakfast cereals, 2005
Own-label opportunities in hot and healthy
Kellogg’s remains the biggest cereal provider
Figure 13: Manufacturer shares of the total breakfast cereal market, 2003 and 2005
Kellogg’s portfolio tops the RTE chart
Figure 14: Manufacturer shares of the ready-to-eat cereal market, 2003 and 2005
Weetabix eases ahead of the field
Figure 15: The top-selling ready-to-eat breakfast cereals in the UK, by estimated brand shares, 2003-05
Quaker’s success story
Figure 16: Estimated brand shares of hot breakfast cereals, 2003-05
 COMPANY PROFILES
Cereal Partners: putting the fun into health
Jordans Cereals expands organic range of natural products
Kellogg’s focus on Guideline Daily Amount Nutrition Counter (GDAs)
Quaker Oats promotes a healthy diet
Weetabix ‘the whole grain cereal’
Other manufacturers
THE IMPACT OF ADVERTISING
Putting their money where their mouth is
Figure 17: Main monitored media spend on breakfast cereals, 2000-05
Adspend blows hot and cold
Figure 18: Main monitored media spend on breakfast cereals, by type, 2000-05
Kellogg’s the big spender on RTE ads
Figure 19: Main monitored media spend on RTE breakfast cereal, by advertiser, 2004
Most adspend devoted to Special K
Figure 20: Main monitored media spend on RTE breakfast cereal, by advertisers and selected brands, 2005
Kellogg’s: Health and family values
Nestlé: Targeting mum
Porridge-mania goes retro
Figure 21: Main monitored media spend on hot breakfast cereal, by advertisers and brands, Jan-Sept 2005
NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
 KEY TRENDS
Figure 22: Top ten positioning claims in breakfast cereal launches, January 2005-06
Kellogg’s ongoing commitment to salt reduction
Nestlé
Weetabix
Jordans
Others
DISTRIBUTION
Variety, price and convenience count
Figure 23: UK retail distribution of breakfast cereal, 2001, 2003 and 2005
A new channel?
THE CONSUMER
Fewer people are eating cold cereals
Figure 24: Consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), 2002-05
The age gap
Figure 25: Consumption of hot and cold cereals, by age group, 2005
Smiles all round for hot cereal providers
Figure 26: Consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), 2002-05
Hot surprise: penetration isn’t highest in Scotland
Figure 27: Non-consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), compared to average, 2002-05
Figure 28: Consumption of breakfast cereals in GB, by region, 2003
One in five snack on breakfast cereals
Figure 29: Breakfast cereal eating habits, 2005
Figure 30: Breakfast cereal eating habits, 2005
Breakfasters and snackers
One in five snack on breakfast cereals
THE CONSUMER – DETAILED DEMOGRAPHICS
TGI data
Figure 31: Consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), 2002-05
Figure 32: Consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), 2002-05
Figure 33: Consumption of breakfast cereals (cold), by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel's Special Groups, 2005
Figure 34: Consumption of breakfast cereals (hot), by gender, age, socio-economic group, presence of children, working status, household size, region, lifestage and Mintel's Special Groups, 2005
Mintel’s consumer research
Figure 35: Attitudes to breakfast, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, Mintel's Special Groups, region, working status, marital status, presence of children, car ownership and ACORN categories, 2005
Figure 36: Attitudes to breakfast, by media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
CONSUMER ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Figure 37: Agreement with statements regarding breakfast options and habits, 2005
Work mentality
Figure 38: Attitudes to breakfast, by working status, 2005
Southerners look for options
The spice of life
The health message is getting through
Figure 39: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, 2005
The gender divide
Health priorities by age group
Figure 40: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, 2005
Breakfast is synonymous with healthy eating
 CONSUMER TYPOLOGIES
Figure 41: Consumer typologies in relation to attitudes to breakfast cereals and bars, 2005
Routine Breakfasters (23% of respondents)
Figure 42: Targeting Routine Breakfasters by preferred media type, 2005
Breakfast Skippers (39% of respondents)
Figure 43: Targeting Breakfast Skippers by preferred media type, 2005
Variety Seekers (13% of respondents)
Figure 44: Targeting Variety Seekers by preferred media type, 2005
Brand Loyals (25% of respondents)
Figure 45: Targeting Routine Breakfasters by preferred type, 2005
Conclusions
ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS – DETAILED DEMOGRAPHICS
Attitudes to breakfast
Figure 46: Attitudes to breakfast, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, region, marital status, working status and presence of children, 2005
Figure 47: Attitudes to breakfast, by ACORN categories, media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
Figure 48: Attitudes to breakfast, by gender, age, socio-economic group, lifestage, region, marital status, working status and presence of children, 2005
Figure 49: Attitudes to breakfast, by ACORN categories, media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
Figure 50: Attitudes to breakfast, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, lifestage, marital status, working status and presence of children, 2005
Figure 51: Attitudes to breakfast, by ACORN categories, media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
Figure 52: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, lifestage, Mintel's Special Groups, marital status, working status, car ownership and presence of children, 2005
Figure 53: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, by media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
Figure 54: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, lifestage, Mintel's Special Groups, marital status, working status, car ownership and presence of children, 2005
Figure 55: Attitudes to breakfast cereals, by ACORN categories, media usage, TV viewing and supermarket usage, 2005
Figure 56: Attitudes to breakfast and breakfast cereals, by purchasing preferences, 2005
Figure 57: Attitudes to breakfast and breakfast cereals, by purchasing preferences, 2005
 CONSUMER TYPOLOGIES
Figure 58: Consumer typologies by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, marital status, working status, presence of children, lifestage, media usage, supermarket usage, household size, ACORN categories, Mintel's Special Groups and TV viewing, 2005
Figure 59: Cross-analysis of purchasing preferences by consumer typologies, 2005
Cross-analysis by typologies
Figure 60: Cross-analysis of breakfast cereal eating habits by consumer typologies, 2005
 REPERTOIRE ANALYSIS
Figure 61: Q2 repertoire – Eating occasions of breakfast cereals, by gender, age, socio-economic group, region, marital status, working status, presence of children, lifestage, media usage, supermarket usage, household size, ACORN categories, Mintel's Special Groups and TV viewing, 2005
Figure 62: Consumer typologies and breakfast cereal repertoire
Figure 63: Eating occasions of breakfast cereals by repertoire (cold)
THE FUTURE AND FORECAST
Figure 64: Forecast of UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, at current and 2005 prices, 2005-10
Figure 65: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2005-10
 FACTORS USED IN THE FORECAST

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