Attitudes towards Cosmetic Procedures - UK - January 2021
Overview
 
Relying on close physical contact with clients, much of the cosmetic industry has struggled during the pandemic with beauty salons and clinics forced to close in the two major lockdowns seen so far. However, there were still opportunities to grow the market. For instance, online consultations for surgical and non-surgical procedures have increased even in the midst of the pandemic. Interest in cosmetic procedures is partly driven by so-called “Zoom boom”, a hyper-awareness of facial imperfections following an increase of video calls. This translated to busy cosmetic operators and a return to performing procedures, shortly after lockdown rules were relaxed.

More generally, developments in technology have contributed to an increase in the popularity of non-surgical procedures which has changed the face of the industry. Aesthetic procedures carry fewer stigmas now, following a normalisation of many of those practices: 43% of UK adults agree that non-surgical procedures are becoming a normal part of beauty grooming routines. This is mirrored with a 40% drop in cosmetic surgeries since 2015, according to the British Association of Aesthetic Plastic Surgeons (BAAPS). 

Increased financial uncertainty and disposable household income falling following the pandemic have raised some concerns for cosmetic operators, especially around surgical procedures since they tend to be far more expensive than non-invasive alternatives while the coronavirus has made many people more wary of unnecessary hospital visits.

The younger generation have emerged as one of the leading demographics seeking non-invasive cosmetic procedures. Growing up with social media, they are more likely to consider rejuvenation and preventative ageing treatments compared to other age groups. Thus, it is necessary for cosmetic operators to improve incorporation of social media marketing strategies to garner a stronger relationship with the cohort.

Key issues covered in this Report
●	The impact of COVID-19 on cosmetic procedures.
●	Changes within cosmetic surgery industry.
●	Rising consumer interest in non-invasive procedures.
●	Demographic-related preferences. 
●	Marketing strategies to expand exposure.
●	Normalising cosmetic procedures.
●	Opportunities to boost safe regulations.

COVID-19: Market context
The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January 2020, with a small number of cases in February. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. It wasn't until 15 June that non-essential stores were allowed to reopen, followed by pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers on 4 July, and many beauty businesses on 13 July.

By September, it had become clear that the UK was at the start of a second wave, and social distancing measures were intensified. Continued increases in infection numbers led to Wales implementing a two-week national lockdown from 19 October, England announcing a month-long lockdown from 5 November and Scotland introducing a new five-level system of coronavirus restrictions. 

Despite these restrictions, however, case numbers continued to increase. All four UK nations tightened restrictions in January 2021, effectively leading to a full UK-wide lockdown. There is no defined end date for the lockdown, although the legislation regarding the English lockdown that was presented to Parliament extends to 31 March.

The UK’s vaccination programme started on 8 December 2020, and with both the Pfizer-BioNTech and the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines licensed for use in the UK, the government aims to offer a vaccine to 15 million people by mid-February.

Impact of the January lockdown and the vaccination rollout
Our core assumptions on the path of the pandemic had always included an expectation of severe disruption to markets and consumers’ lifestyles well into 2021, with a strong likelihood that the virus would still be with us even into 2022. Although the second wave of infections and subsequent lockdown puts us towards the negative end of our initial expectations, these developments are still broadly consistent with our previous assumptions.

Similarly, Mintel had factored in the likelihood that an effective vaccine would be available from early to mid-2021. The licensing of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines puts us slightly ahead of that assumption, but the challenge associated with rolling out a new vaccination programme to millions of people means that our previous assumptions are still broadly consistent with the new reality.

Economic and other assumptions
Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its November 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP will have fallen by 11.3% in 2020, recovering by 5.5% in 2021 and 6.6% in 2022. GDP isn’t expected to return to pre-COVID levels until Q4 2022. The central scenario has unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q2 2021.

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q4 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP doesn’t recover until Q3 2024.

The second wave of infections and subsequent lockdowns means that the short-term prospects for the country are consistent with the OBR’s negative scenario, but this needs to be balanced against the fact that the vaccine rollout is ahead of even the OBR’s central scenario. Medium to long term, then, we are still basing our forecasts and market analysis on the OBR’s central economic scenario.