Lotteries - UK - January 2021

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this Report
COVID-19: Market context
Impact of the January 2021 lockdown and the vaccination rollout
Covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on lotteries
Figure 1: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on lotteries, 5 January 2021
The market
Market size and forecast
Figure 2: Forecast of consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2015/16-2025/26*
New game drives draw sales growth
Figure 3: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2015/16-2019/20*
COVID crisis pushes more players into digital switch
Figure 4: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2015/16-2019/20*
Companies and brands
National Lottery slows loss of share
Figure 5: Lottery sales, by operator share, 2015/16-2019/20
The consumer
Interest splits along lines of age
Figure 6: Lottery games played, November 2020
Set For Life draws a younger crowd
Figure 7: Lottery draw games played, November 2020
Lottery’s new generation is default digital
Figure 8: Methods of purchasing lottery draw tickets, November 2020
Remote play challenges retail’s rationale
Figure 9: Benefits of buying lottery draw tickets online, November 2020
Society players more charity-minded
Figure 10: Motives for playing lottery games, November 2020
COVID crisis puts younger players at greatest risk
Figure 11: Changes in lottery-playing habits during the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2020
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
COVID crisis pushes play towards digital – online and in-store
High street still mighty
The next normal: Accelerating emerging trends
Digital and retail converge
All lotteries can learn from success of Set For Life
Value concept about more than cash
Experiences to the fore in the next normal
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Lottery revenues hit record high
Spending sustainable through COVID and beyond
New draw drives ticket sales growth
Digital play wins lockdown lottery
New rules open market to innovation
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Lotteries largely immune to pandemic
Figure 12: Short, medium and long-term impact of COVID-19 on lotteries, 5 January 2021
Spending reaches record heights
Figure 13: Lottery sales and consumer expenditure*, 2015/16-2019/20**
Lotteries well placed to weather COVID storm
Figure 14: Forecast of consumer expenditure on lotteries, 2015/16-2025/26
Market drivers and assumptions
Figure 15: Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast, 2015-25 (prepared on 5 January 2021)
Learnings from the last recession
Figure 16: UK lottery sales, 2007/08-2011/12*
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Draw games stop slide against scratchcards
Figure 17: National Lottery sales, by segment, 2015/16-2019/20
Retail rebounds but lockdown accelerates digital growth
Figure 18: National Lottery sales, by channel, 2015/16-2019/20*
MARKET DRIVERS
It could be who? National Lottery licence up for grabs
Figure 19: National Lottery sales, 1994/95-2019/20
Digital expansion heads for online slots territory
Figure 20: Consumer expenditure* on gambling, by segment, 2019/20**
Large societies win big prize rise
Figure 21: National Lottery duty payments, 2015/16-2019/20
Good causes move up the lottery agenda
Figure 22: National Lottery returns to good causes, 2016/17-2019/20
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Mixed outlook for societies sector
COVID support highlights community value
Competitive tensions fuel rising adspend
MARKET SHARE
Mixed fortunes for society lottery challengers
Figure 23: Lottery sales, by operator share, 2015/16-2019/20
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Community support stepped up during COVID
Charity bets blur lotto boundaries
National Lottery marks quarter century
Scratchcard stake cut to limit potential losses
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Arms race drives leaders’ spending
Figure 24: UK lottery operators’ main monitored media advertising spend, 2017-19
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Retail recovers as digital sales soar
Interest splits along lines of age
Set For Life draws a younger crowd
Lottery’s new generation is default digital
Remote play challenges retail’s rationale
Society players more charity-minded
COVID crisis puts younger players at greatest risk
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Lottery sales survive shopping switch
Figure 25: Changes in shopping habits during the COVID-19/coronavirus pandemic, April-November 2020
Community solidarity fades as pandemic drags on
Figure 26: Change in prioritisation of local community since the outbreak of COVID-19, April and October 2020
LOTTERY PLAYERS
Mass migration opens online opportunities for instant wins
Figure 27: Lottery games played, November 2020
Repertoire expansion a key driver of value growth
Figure 28: Lottery game repertoires, November 2020
DRAW GAME PLAY
Societies target different draws and demographics
Figure 29: Lottery draw games played, November 2020
Set For Life draw solving National Lottery’s age problem
Figure 30: Participation in lottery draws among 18-34 year olds, November 2020
METHODS OF PLAY
Younger players lead online growth
Figure 31: Methods of purchasing National Lottery draw tickets, November 2020
Retail restrictions damage smaller society sales
Figure 32: Methods of purchasing other lottery draw tickets, November 2020
ATTITUDES TOWARDS ONLINE PLAY
Quick and easy digital draws put shops in the shade
Figure 33: Benefits of buying lottery draw tickets online, November 2020
MOTIVES FOR PLAY
Appeal of cash proves biggest not always best
Figure 34: Motives for playing lottery games, November 2020
Good causes an opportunity to give back to society lotteries
Figure 35: Participation in lottery games to support good causes, by lottery draws played, November 2020
Instant-win seekers more calculating online
Figure 36: Motives for playing lottery games, by past-year scratchcard and IWG play, November 2020
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON PLAYING HABITS
Younger players most at risk
Figure 37: Changes in lottery-playing habits during the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2020
Crisis brings lottery community together
Figure 38: Attitudes towards lotteries during the COVID-19 outbreak, November 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology