Author: Mintel Group Ltd.
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Cheese: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK - October 2020
Overview
 
That a product is British-made is the number one factor that would encourage consumers to pay more for a cheese. That a third would be willing to pay more for this aspect should embolden cheese manufacturers to make more of the “made in Britain” claim where they can, as well as referencing British milk. With Brexit looming, this provides some reassurance to brands and retailers that consumers are willing to support their local or national economy.

The boost to cheese brought about by the first nationwide lockdown in the spring is expected to continue to a lesser degree as consumers face further restrictions at the time of writing, are encouraged to work from home and are keen to save money. The expected shift towards more homeworking long term will keep up cheese occasions going forward, this providing a boost to the lunchtime and dinner occasions. 

That price is a consideration for 68% of cheese buyers and promotions prompt 59% of eaters/buyers to switch between different brands of cheese signals a warning to the cheese market. With the UK entering into a recession in 2020, price is likely to become more of a determining factor as people look to tighten their purse strings. It will also remain imperative for brands to hold their ground to ensure that consumers do not switch away from their brand, through either keeping their own prices affordable or providing added value.

There is marked potential for brands to leverage cheese’s image as a satisfying snack, with 73% of UK adults seeing it in this light. Cheesemakers have been attempting to push the snack angle for a number of years, the need to keep it chilled posing a barrier to use in the numerous out-of-home occasions. However, the increased working from home now and in the longer term presents more opportunities for snacking on cheese in the home, either block cheese or snacking products, with potential for brands to drive volume sales if they can unlock these occasions.

Key issues covered in this Report
●	The impact of COVID-19 on the cheese retail market.
●	Launch activity in 2020 and future product development opportunities. 
●	Factors influencing cheese choice. 
●	Reasons to pay more for cheese. 
●	Consumer behaviours and attitudes related to cheese.

COVID-19: market context
The first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the UK at the end of January, with a small number of cases in February. The government focused on the ‘contain’ stage of its strategy, with the country continuing to operate much as normal. As the case level rose, the government ordered the closure of non-essential stores and foodservice venues on 20 March. 

A wider lockdown requiring people to stay at home except for essential shopping, exercise and work ‘if absolutely necessary’ followed on 23 March. Measures began to be relaxed in May 2020, with coffee shops such as Starbucks reopening from 21 May. Pubs, restaurants, hotels and hairdressers were able to reopen on 4 July.

The government had to halt its September 2020 campaign encouraging workers back into workplaces; instead, asking people to work from home where possible following a rise in cases. It also introduced a “rule of six” as part of measures intended to halt the rise in cases. It applies both indoors and outdoors and to all ages in England – although there are some exemptions, such as workplaces and educational settings. 

This was followed by a new wave of nationwide restrictions announced on 22 September, including limits on opening hours for pubs, bars and foodservice outlets and stricter regulations on when face coverings must be worn.

On 12 October the Prime Minister set out a new three-tiered system of local COVID-19 alert levels in England, with different restrictions applying depending on the alert level for the area. The main differences between the different levels relate to whether different households can meet inside and outside and at tier three the closing of certain venues such as pubs not selling meals. 

A two-week ‘firebreak’ lockdown was introduced in Wales from 20 October. On 31 October, the Prime Minister announced a second national lockdown in England, in which people are advised to stay at home and to avoid socialising, except for specific purposes. Pubs and restaurants, and non-essential shops will have to close for four weeks from 5 November except for click-and-collect/takeaway and delivery. Leisure and sports facilities and entertainment venues must close for the four week period. English regions should go back to the tiered system after 2 December and unlike the first lockdown, schools, colleges and universities will remain open. 

Economic and other assumptions
Mintel’s economic assumptions are based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s central scenario included in its July 2020 Fiscal Sustainability Report. The scenario suggests that UK GDP could fall by 12.4% in 2020, recovering by 8.7% in 2021, and that unemployment will reach 11.9% by the end of 2020, falling to 8.8% by the end of 2021. 

The current uncertainty means that there is wide variation on the range of forecasts, however, and this is reflected in the OBR’s own scenarios. In its upside scenario, economic activity returns to pre-COVID-19 levels by Q1 2021. Its more negative scenario, by contrast, would mean that GDP does not recover until Q3 2024.

Products covered in this Report
This Report examines the UK retail market for cheese. For the purposes of this Report, Mintel’s definition includes products sold through the grocery retail channel and direct to consumers, including:

●	Fresh cheese and cream cheese
●	Hard cheese and semi-hard cheese
●	Processed cheese
●	Soft cheese and semi-soft cheese.

The market size includes sales of cottage cheese; however, this is excluded from all other parts of the Report, as it falls under the curd and quark category. Sales via catering or foodservice establishments are excluded, although references and comparisons to these sectors may be made where relevant.

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