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Seasonal Shopping (Spring/Summer): Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK - October 2020

OVERVIEW
Key issues covered in this report
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
Figure 1: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, October 2020
The market
Consumer spending on seasonal events at £1.4 billion in 2020
Figure 2: Estimated consumer gift spending on the spring/summer retail events in 2019 and 2020
Consumer confidence wanes amid COVID-19
Figure 3: Consumer financial confidence, January 2018-August 2020
Consumers cut back on non-essential spending
Figure 4: Consumers who are cutting back on non-essential spending and time-spent in store, September 24-October 1 2020
First half of 2020 off to a rocky start due to COVID-19
Figure 5: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January 2018-Aug 2020
Online to capture Christmas spend as demand moves online
Figure 6: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January 2019-August 2020
Companies and brands
Advertising spend increases in 2019
Figure 7: Annual percentage change in total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, January 2019-August 2020
Key campaigns reflect new COVID-19 reality
Innovations help shoppers celebrate seasonal events at home
The consumer
Gift purchasing for seasonal events was down compared to 2019
Figure 8: Any gift-buying amongst consumers aged 16+, May-July 2020
Small ticket purchases drove seasonal gifting in 2020
Figure 9: Products bought by consumers for Mother’s day, Father’s Day and Easter in 2020, May-July 2020
Average spend per consumer down on 2019
Figure 10: Average spend by shoppers for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
In-store still dominates seasonal purchases
Figure 11: How shoppers purchased gifts for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
Supermarkets the go-to place for seasonal shopping
Figure 12: Where shoppers go to purchase gifts for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
Most will buy gifts in advance for Mother’s Day and Father’s Day
Figure 13: Mother’s Day and Father’s Day actions, May-July 2020
Consumers celebrate Mother’s Day with a special meal at home
Figure 14: Mother’s Day activities in 2020, April 2020
Mother’s and Father’s Day shoppers interested in exclusive deals for loyal customers
Figure 15: Interest in innovations for seasonal events In 2020, May and July 2020
Shoppers look for long-lasting Mother’s Day gifts
Figure 16: Mother’s Day behaviours in 2020, April 2020
Shoppers go for branded Easter eggs
Figure 17: Types of eggs purchased for Easter in 2020, May 2020
Tesco is a favourite for Easter chocolate products
Figure 18: Which retailers shoppers use to purchase Easter products from in 2020, May 2020
Concerns remain over plastic levels in Easter products
Figure 19: Easter behaviours in 2020, May 2020
What we think
COVID-19 AND SEASONAL SHOPPING
Impact on the market
Consumer spending down on 2019 for seasonal events
Consumers cut back on non-essential spending
Impact on consumers
Small ticket items drove seasonal gifting
Average spend down on 2019
Significant increase in online shopping for seasonal events
Celebrating Father’s Day virtually
Consumers appreciate retailers who consider those who have lost a parent
Impact on companies and brands
Innovations aimed at reflecting COVID-19 reality
Key campaigns focus on celebrating seasonal events from lockdown
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can retailers encourage spend when consumer confidence is low?
The facts
The implications
Capture spend with exclusive deals for loyal customers
Promote premium food and drink ranges with interactive dining-in experiences
How can retailers be more inclusive at seasonal events?
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Consumer gift spending down 54.1% in 2020
Declining wage growth dampens consumer spend for seasonal events
37% of consumers cut back on non-essential spending 
2021 set for more favourable conditions
MARKET SIZE AND SEGMENTATION
Impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping
Figure 20: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on seasonal shopping, October, 2020
Lockdown
Re-emergence
Recovery
Consumer gift spending impacted by COVID-19
Figure 21: Estimated consumer gift spending on spring/summer retail events in 2019 and 2020
Spending down on key categories in 2020
Figure 22: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on gifts and other products for spring/summer retail events, 2020
MARKET DRIVERS
Seasonal events need to be inclusive towards an ageing population 
Figure 23: Breakdown of trend in the age structure of the UK population, 2020-30
Figure 24: Breakdown of trend in the age structure of the UK population, 2020-30
Declining wage growth dampens consumer spend for seasonal events
Figure 25: Real wage growth - average weekly earnings vs inflation, 2016-2020
Consumer confidence wanes amid COVID-19
Figure 26: Consumer financial confidence, January 2018-August 2020
Consumers cut back on non-essential spending 
Figure 27: Consumers who are cutting back on non-essential spending and time-spent in store, September 24-October 1 2020
RETAIL SALES ACROSS THE YEAR
Autumn captures largest share of retail sales
Figure 28: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2019
First half of 2020 off to a rocky start due to COVID-19
Figure 29: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January 2018-August 2020
Figure 30: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January 2018-August 2020
Clothing hit hard by COVID-19 but grocery sales survive
Figure 31: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January-August 2020
Spring and summer months in focus
Figure 32: Value of retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by spring/summer months, 2018-20
ONLINE RETAIL SALES ACROSS THE YEAR 
Online to capture Christmas spend as demand moves online
Figure 33: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, January 2019-August 2020
Grocery sector benefits from demand moving online
Figure 34: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, January 2018-August 2020
Figure 35: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, by month, January 2019-Aug 2020
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Digital channel accounts for 20% of advertising spend in 2020
Key campaigns reflect new COVID-19 reality
Innovations help shoppers celebrate seasonal events at home
Retailers should innovate in areas that interest consumers
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
November captures most advertising spend in 2019
Figure 36: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, January 2019-August 2020
Advertising spend increases in 2019
Figure 37: Annual percentage change in total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month,  January 2019-August 2020
November has biggest share of ad spend in 2019
Figure 38: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, monthly as a % of total spending, 2019
TV continues to be the channel of choice for advertisers in 2019…
Figure 39: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, by advertising method, 2019
…but digital increases in 2020 as spend is directed online
Figure 40: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers, by advertising method, January-August 2020
Advertising spend for spring/summer down 46.8% in 2020
Figure 41: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure by all retailers during the spring and summer months March-August, 2018-20
Key campaigns focus on celebrating seasonal events at home
Chanel’s US Father’s Day and Mother’s Day campaign
Figure 42: Chanel’s Mother’s Day and Father’s Day campaign, 2020
Sainsbury’s ‘Be you- Mum (and some)’ and Father’s Day campaign
Figure 43: Sainsbury’s Mother’s Day and Father’s Day campaigns, 2020
Tesco’s Food Love Story for Father’s Day
Figure 44: Tesco’s Father’s Day campaign, 2020
Bloom and Wild’s ‘Thoughtful Marketing’ campaign
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
COVID-19 launches
Filthy Sentiments launches COVID-19-related Mothers’ Day cards
Figure 45: Filthy Sentiments’ COVID-19 related Mother’s Day cards, 2020
Louis Vuitton’s #WELVMOMS e-card service
Figure 46: Louis Vuitton’s complimentary e-card personalisation service, 2020
Moonpig’s blood donation card range for Mother’s Day
Figure 47: Moonpig’s Mother’s Day card range, 2020
KitKat Chocolatory personalisation service
Figure 48: KitKat Mother’s Day personalisation service, 2020
Waitrose donates confectionery to NHS workers
Figure 49: John Lewis and Waitrose donating Easter eggs to NHS workers, 2020
Unusual shapes and sizes
Deliveroo’s invisible Easter egg
Figure 50: Deliveroo’s invisible gelatine Easter eggs, 2020
Tesco unicorn and dinosaur Mother’s Day bouquets
Figure 51: Tesco’s Mother’s Day flower bouquet, 2020
Aldi launches giant Easter eggs
Figure 52: Aldi’s giant Easter chocolate eggs, 2020
Waitrose X Heston Easter egg range
Figure 53: Heston Blumenthal’s lemon Easter egg, 2020
Royal Mail’s dedicated Mother’s Day post-box
Figure 54: Royal Mail’s dedicated Mother’s Day parcel post-box, 2020
More chocolate but less plastic in this year’s Easter eggs
Asda’s new sustainable packaged Easer egg 
Figure 55: Asda’s repackaged Easter eggs, 2020
Hotel Chocolat adds dairy-free eggs to its vegan line
Figure 56: Hotel Chocolat’s dairy-free egg, 2020
THE CONSUMER – KEY TAKEAWAYS
Small ticket purchases drove seasonal gifting
In-store still dominated seasonal purchases
9% of consumers celebrated Father’s Day ‘virtually’ in 2020
18% of Father’s Day shoppers would be interested in exclusive deals
68% of Mother’s Day shoppers appreciate retailers who consider those who have lost a parent
79% of Easter shoppers go for branded Easter eggs
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
Consumers prioritise essentials 
Figure 57: Consumers who are cutting back on discretionary spend, limiting time in store and shopping more online, September 24-October 1, 2020
In-home food and drink expected to grow as consumers stay indoors
Figure 58: How consumers feel about attending a restaurant/bar outdoors, September 24-October 1, 2020
Seasonal spending set to be subdued as consumers struggle financially
Figure 59: Consumers’ financial situation during COVID-19 pandemic, 30th July 2020 - 7th August 2020
WHAT THEY BUY 
Gift purchasing for seasonal events down compared to 2019
Figure 60: Any gift-buying amongst consumers aged 16+, May-July 2020
Small ticket purchases drive seasonal gifting
Figure 61: Products bought by consumers for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day and Easter in 2020, May-July 2020
Men aged 16-34 treat mothers to flowers and chocolates
Figure 62: Products bought by consumers for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day and Easter in 2020, by age group, May-July 2020
Seasonal shoppers tend to buy one gift/product
Figure 63: Repertoire of products purchased for spring/summer events in 2020, May-July 2019
HOW MUCH THEY SPEND
Average spend per consumer down on 2019
Figure 64: Average spend by shoppers for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
AB consumers spend the most on seasonal gifts
Figure 65: Average spend by shoppers for seasonal events in 2020, by socio-economic groups, May-July 2020
HOW THEY SHOP 
In-store still dominates purchases
Figure 66: How shoppers purchased gifts for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
Men prefer to shop online
Figure 67: How shoppers purchased gifts for seasonal events in 2020, by gender, May-July 2020
WHICH RETAILER THEY USE 
Supermarkets the go-to place for seasonal shopping
Figure 68: Where shoppers go to purchase gifts for seasonal events in 2020, May-July 2020
MOTHER’S DAY AND FATHER’S DAY ACTIONS
Most will buy gifts in advance
Figure 69: Mother’s Day and Father’s Day actions, May-July 2020
MOTHER’S DAY AND FATHER’S DAY ACTIVITIES
Consumers celebrate Mother’s Day with a special meal at home
Figure 70: Mother’s Day activities in 2020, April 2020
Celebrating Father’s Day virtually
Figure 71: Father’s Day activities in 2020, July 2020
INTEREST IN INNOVATIONS FOR MOTHER’S DAY AND FATHER’S DAY
Interest in exclusive deals to reward loyal customers
Figure 72: Interest in innovations for seasonal events in 2020, May and July 2020
MOTHER’S DAY AND FATHER’S DAY BEHAVIOURS
Shoppers look for long-lasting Mother’s Day gifts
Figure 73: Mother’s Day behaviours in 2020, April 2020
Consumers appreciate retailers who consider those who have lost a parent
Figure 74: Father’s Day behaviours in 2020, July 2020
WHAT TYPE OF EASTER EGGS THEY BUY
Shoppers go for branded Easter eggs
Figure 75: Types of eggs purchased for Easter in 2020, May 2020
Easter shoppers buy one product
Figure 76: How many types of chocolate products were bought for Easter in 2020, May 2020
WHERE THEY SHOP FOR CHOCOLATE PRODUCTS
Tesco is a favourite for Easter chocolate products
Figure 77: Which retailers shoppers used to purchase Easter products from in 2020, May 2020
EASTER BEHAVIOURS
Concerns over plastic remain
Figure 78: Easter behaviours in 2020, May 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology

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