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Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - September 2020
Overview
 
What you need to know 
Yogurt and yogurt drink sales are expected to reach $8.6 billion in 2020, enjoying the first overall gains in five years, and benefitting from behavioral changes spurred by the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers are four times more likely to have increased yogurt consumption this year than decreased, with more than half of yogurt increasers attributing it to being at home more due to the pandemic. The drinks segment, which has been the recent growth area, will struggle slightly from a decrease in on-the-go occasions. Both segments can capitalize on this unique moment, by meeting consumers at home.

Key issues covered in this Report
●	The impact of COVID-19 on consumer behavior and the yogurt and yogurt drinks market
●	The benefit of familiarity, affordability and versatility during a time of economic insecurity
●	The evolving role of non-dairy options
●	Experience and interest in yogurt/drink styles and formats

Definition 
For the purposes of this Report, Mintel has used the following definitions: 

●	Spoonable yogurt is defined as yogurt sold in cups or tubes, and includes specific yogurt styles such as Greek, Icelandic and non-dairy.
●	Yogurt drinks are defined as refrigerated and shelf-stable yogurt products in a liquid, drinkable form, including yogurt “smoothies,” kefir and lassi.

COVID-19: Market context
The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US.

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April and remained in place through May and in some cases June. During this time, referred to as lockdown, nonessential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations.

During reemergence, all 50 states have relaxed stay-at-home orders and allowed businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. The continued spread of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans. Mintel anticipates the US will remain in a state of flux through 2021 until a vaccine is available.

Economic and other assumptions
This forecast and subsequent Report assumes that:

●	Unemployment will rest at 10.6% in 2020 before incrementally improving over the next five years
●	US GDP will decline 5.8% in 2020 and increase 4% in 2021, followed by continuous increases until 2020
●	Consumer confidence rests at 78.1% as of June 2020. This is a 5.8% improvement from May of 2020 and a 6.3% improvement from April, indicating that consumer confidence is on an upswing and will continue improving throughout the rest of the year.

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