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Frozen Snacks: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - July 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know 
Definition 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Top Takeaways
Market Overview
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on Frozen Snacks
Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on frozen snacks, May 2020
Challenges and Opportunities
Re-emergence
Recessions give a lift to frozen snacks
Figure 3: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2006-10
Figure 4: Unemployment - Recession versus pandemic, Dec 2007-May 2009 and Dec 2018-May 2020
Price far outranks brand
Figure 5: Price, brand and frozen snacks, April 2020
Recovery
Households freeze out frozen snacks as kids age
Figure 6: Repertoire of frozen snack purchase, by parental status, April 2020
Health concerns stand in the way of increased adult consumption
Figure 7: Attitudes toward frozen snacks – Net any agree/disagree, April 2020
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Pandemic closures provide boon to frozen snack sales
Handheld entrees see the bigger boost
Prime time for private label
Children are the present; the future is unclear
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
2020 sees strong COVID-19-related growth
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2015-25
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Appetizers/snack rolls continued to pick up share in 2020-21
Figure 10: Sales of frozen snacks, by segment, 2018 and 2020
Shifts in spending priorities redirects channel choice
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 12: Change in spending priorities, July 2020
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Challenges to restaurants leave an appetizing gap to be filled
Figure 13: Restaurant behaviors, October 2019
Consumers continue to turn to snacking
Figure 14: Snacking in place of meals, by age, February 2020
MARKET FACTORS
Restaurant spend shifts to retail 
Figure 15: Changes in spending habits due to coronavirus, April-July 2020
‘Aging out’ of the category poses structural problem for frozen snacks
Figure 16: US population share, by age, 2011-21
Brands will need to plan to address shrinking households with children 
Figure 17: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
School/daycare closures amid pandemic likely led to uptick in sales
Figure 18: Public school students, by grade, fall 2019
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
COVID-19 breathes life into once floundering brands
Frozen snack consumers turning to the familiar
Shifting notions of health portend problems 
A return to the next normal
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FROZEN SNACKS
Large year-on-year growth for top ten category players
Sales of frozen snacks by company
Figure 19: Sales of frozen snacks, by company, 2019 and 2020
WHAT’S WORKING
Demand for convenience-plus
Figure 20: Frozen snack launches in the US, by claim category, 2015-19
Deriving comfort from nostalgia
WHAT’S STRUGGLING
Lean times for lean brands
WHAT TO WATCH
BFY frozen snacks will get a refresh
Figure 21: Interest in healthier frozen snacks, any agree, April 2020
Recession will boost private label frozen snacks
Restaurant-branded frozen snacks
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Households with children comprise key frozen snack base
Consumers seek to stretch their food dollar
BFY frozen snacks need a contemporary update
Health fears leading to less frozen snack consumption
Interest in a variety of international cuisines
Frozen snack brands could face a reckoning in the next normal
FROZEN SNACK PURCHASE 
More than three quarters of consumers participate in the category
Figure 22: Frozen snack purchase, April 2020
Consumer participation with the category wanes with age
Figure 23: Frozen snack purchase, by age, April 2020
Product choice aligns, declines with child age
Figure 24: Frozen snack purchase, by presence and age of children, April 2020
Small portion of nonparents engage with 1-2 types of frozen snacks
Figure 25: Repertoire of frozen snack purchase, by select demographics, April 2020
Hispanic millennials are increasingly important targets for frozen snack brands
Figure 26: Frozen snack purchase, by Hispanic origin, by generation, April 2020
FROZEN SNACK PURCHASE FACTORS 
Price leads purchase factors
Figure 27: Frozen snack purchase factors, April 2020
Moms more likely to focus on price, while protein content resonates much more with dads
Figure 28: Frozen snack purchase factors, by parental status by gender, April 2020
Lower-income households seeking frozen snacks that can replace a meal
Figure 29: Frozen snack purchase factors, by household income, April 2020
Satiety and protein content of keen interest to Hispanic consumers
Figure 30: Frozen snack purchase factors, by Hispanic origin, by generation, April 2020
Healthy snacks as a comforting meal
Figure 31: TURF Analysis – purchase factors, March 2020
INCREASING FROZEN SNACK PURCHASE
Half of consumers would buy more healthy frozen snacks
Figure 32: Increasing frozen snack purchase, April 2020
Health and premium appeal to parents, with a significant interest in sharing
Figure 33: Increasing frozen snack purchase, by parental status, by gender, April 2020
Hispanic consumers seek frozen snacks for sharing
Figure 34: Increasing frozen snack purchase, by Hispanic origin, by generation, April 2020
Healthier options appeal across the most popular frozen snack varieties
Figure 35: Increasing frozen snack purchase, by frozen snack purchase, April 2020
INTERNATIONAL CUISINES IN FROZEN SNACKS 
Diverse flavor opportunities for frozen snack brands
Figure 36: International cuisines in frozen snacks, April 2020
CHANGE IN FROZEN SNACK CONSUMPTION 
Frozen snack usage remains consistent amid pandemic
Figure 37: Frozen snack purchase trends, April 2020
Younger consumers, parents much more likely to be eating frozen snacks more often
Figure 38: Frozen snack purchase trends, by demographics, April 2020
Health concerns top the reasons consumers are eating less frozen snacks
Figure 39: Frozen snack purchase deterrents, April 2020
Frozen snack reducers look for freshness
Figure 40: TURF Analysis – frozen snack purchase deterrents, April 2020
ATTITUDES TOWARD FROZEN SNACKS
Ease being a given, frozen snack consumers turn interest toward health
Figure 41: Frozen snack attitudes, April 2020
Parents seek options that can be customized and potentially serve as childhood favorites for their children
Figure 42: Customization, favorites and frozen snacks, any agree, by parental status, April 2020
Private label primed for growth
Figure 43: Brands and frozen snacks, any agree, by presence and number of children in household, April 2020
FROZEN SNACKS BY CONSUMER FOOD/DRINK SEGMENTATION 
Figure 44: Food/drink consumer segmentation of frozen snacks, April 2020
Quality Seekers largely avoid the category
Figure 45: Frozen snack purchase, Quality Seekers versus overall consumers, April 2020
Healthy, natural appeal to Adventure Eaters
Figure 46: Quality, health and frozen snacks, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, April 2020
Time Savers seek to save more than time
Figure 47: Frozen snack purchase factors, by food/drink consumer segmentation, April 2020
Category challenged to resonate with Value Chasers
Figure 48: Attitudes toward frozen snack brands, any agree, by food/drink consumer segmentation, April 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen snacks, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen appetizers/snack rolls/pretzels, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrees, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen handheld entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
APPENDIX – RETAIL CHANNELS  
Figure 56: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 57: Total US retail sales of frozen snacks, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Figure 58: US supermarket sales of frozen snacks, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 59: US sales of frozen snacks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of frozen appetizers/snack rolls, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 61: Multi-outlet sales of frozen handheld entrees, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS –FROZEN SNACKS – JULY 2020 - METHODOLOGY
Figure 62: TURF Analysis – purchase factors, March 2020
Figure 63: Table - TURF Analysis – Frozen snack deterrents, April 2020

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