The Impact of COVID-19 on the Consumer Relationship with Financial Services - US - June 2020
Overview
 
Scope
This Report covers the impact of COVID-19 on consumer attitudes and behaviors toward the financial services industry. Opportunities in the short-, medium- and longer-term are discussed. 

Definition
For the purposes of this Report, the following categories of the financial services industry are explored:

●	Banking
●	Credit
●	Lending
●	Insurance
●	Fintech

Economic assumptions
Our economic assumptions are based on global forecasts released by the IMF on April 14, 2020. The IMF expects US GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020 and recover to 4.7% growth in 2021. Our unemployment estimate comes from CBO projections released May 19, 2020 which indicate a sharp rise to 15.1% in Q2 2020, remaining high through Q3 before recovering slightly to 11.5% by the end of the year, with a 9.3% rate for 2021. The current uncertainty means there is wide variation in the forecasts.

COVID-19: US context
This Report was written in July 2020. 

The first COVID-19 case was confirmed in the US in January 2020. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global health pandemic, and, on March 13, President Trump declared a national emergency in the US. 

Across the US, state-level stay-at-home orders rolled out throughout the months of March and April, and non-essential businesses and school districts across the nation closed or shifted to remote operations. At the time of writing, all 50 states have relaxed restrictions, allowing businesses to operate with varying levels of social distancing measures in place. However, a resurgence of COVID-19 infections has driven some states to slow down or reverse course on reopening plans.