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Juice and Juice Drinks: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - June 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Market overview
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
Impact of COVID-19 on juice and juice drinks
Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on juice and juice drinks, June 2020
Top takeaways
Key trends
COVID-19 brings sparks demand for vitamin C
On-the-go smoothies go down
Flavor and fun divide juice buyers
Figure 3: Juice and juice drink consumers, April 2020
Juice drinks keep the market afloat
Figure 4: Juice and juice drink purchases, April 2018 and 2020
Confusing consumption occasions calls for niche benefits
Figure 5: Purchase motivators, April 2020
What it means
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON JUICE AND JUICE DRINKS
What you need to know
Figure 6: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on juice and juice drinks, June 2020
Opportunities and threats
Wellness starts with a strong immune system, but it won’t stop there
Traveling through taste
Figure 7: Internationally inspired juices
Bring back morning “me” time
Making juice the secret ingredient
Figure 8: Bolthouse Farms’ vanilla chai French toast
Impact of COVID-19 on the juice market
COVID-19 demand spike drives first signs of growth
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
Juice just got pricey
Shopping from home
An inconvenient truth for convenience stores
Figure 10: Share of retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
How the COVID-19 crisis will affect the juice industry’s key consumer segments
Aging consumers are more recession-proof, but more at-risk
Making the juice worth the squeeze for lower-income consumers
Pleasing parents and kids
Figure 11: Juicy Juice looks to appeal to the whole family
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the juice industry
Private label drives value appeal
Figure 12: Multi-outlet sales of juice and juice drinks, by retail channel, at current prices, 2019-20
Legacy brands look to evolve along with consumers
Figure 13: Juice brands focus on sustainable initiatives
COVID-19: US context
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Declining juice sales see relief from COVID-19
Sugar waters down the category
What about these blurred lines?
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Turning lemons into lemonade
Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
MARKET BREAKDOWN
High sugar has prompted low interest
Figure 15: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2020 (est)
Figure 16: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment share, at current prices, 2015-25
RTD with nowhere to be 
Figure 17: Kellogg’s announces Joyböl in March 2020
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Viva la vodka cran
Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of cocktail mixes, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 19: Calamansi premium juice as a mixer
Muddled lines between BFY beverages
Figure 20: Blurred functional juices
Functionality in foodservice
Impacted ingredients
Favorable formats
MARKET FACTORS 
Not so sweet on sugar
Figure 21: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are overweight or obese, 2001-02 to 2015-16
Sugar isn’t the only sweetener
Figure 22: Juice drink labels
Modern families stress traditional categories
Figure 23: Percentage of households with children, 2008-18
Pouring innovations to serve Millennial parents
Figure 24: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2018
The perimeter of the store in the palm of your hand
Figure 25: LIFEAID paid social campaign
The other kind of green juice
Figure 26: On-pack sustainability claims
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Private label continues to perform
Return of the OG: OJ
The Yoo-hoo Phenomenon: when blurring and hybrid drinks catch on
What’s your function?
Fan flavorites
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF JUICE AND JUICE DRINKS
COVID-19 has already left its mark
Figure 27: IRI CPG Demand Index: MULO sales of juices, drink mixes, and frozen beverages
Private label continues to squeeze major brands
Figure 28: Private label juices
Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of juice and juice drinks, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
WHAT’S WORKING?
OJ sales are healthy
Success concentrates on concentrates
Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of drink mixes and concentrates, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Hybrid drinks split flavor and function
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Bottled smoothies are ready to drink, but people aren’t ready to buy
Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Feeling sour toward sweetened juices
WHAT TO WATCH
Gut check
Brain blast
Savor it
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Juice drinks are a bright spot
Death by daypart
Deliver on nutrition before offering function
Purchase fatigue is spoiling consumers’ interest
JUICE AND JUICE DRINK CONSUMER SEGMENTS
Nutrition and novelty divide consumers
Figure 32: Juice and juice drink consumers, April 2020
Enthusiastic Experimenters  
Demographic snapshot
What it means
Figure 33: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks – Enthusiastic Experimenters, indexed to all juice buyers, April 2020
Benefit Believers 
Demographic snapshot
What it means
Figure 34: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks – Benefit Believers, indexed to all juice buyers, April 2020
Habit Buyers 
Demographic snapshot
What it means
Figure 35: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks – Habit Buyers, indexed to all juice buyers, April 2020
Skeptical Shoppers 
Demographic snapshot
What it means
Figure 36: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks – Skeptical Shoppers, indexed to all juice buyers, April 2020
JUICE AND JUICE DRINK PURCHASES
Purchase incidence is falling
Figure 37: Juice and juice drink purchases, April 2018 and 2020
Gen Z is primed for functional benefits
Figure 38: Juice and juice drink purchases, by generation, April 2020
Figure 39: Juice and juice drink consumers, by generation, April 2020
Juice is a family affair
Figure 40: Juice and juice drink purchases, by parental status, April 2020
Figure 41: Juice and juice drink consumers, by parental status, April 2020
CONSUMPTION OCCASIONS
Looking beyond the low-hanging fruit
Figure 42: Consumption occasions, by juice type, April 2020
Where does juice belong? 
Figure 43: Correspondence analysis – consumption occasions, April 2020
SHIFTS IN CONSUMPTION
Purchase patterns are flat
Figure 44: Shifts in consumption, April 2020
Do it for the kids
Figure 45: Shifts in consumption, by parental status, April 2020
Healthy, tasty, quickly
Figure 46: Shifts in consumption – buying more, April 2020
Tightened purse strings, loosened belts
Figure 47: Shifts in consumption – buying less, April 2020
PURCHASE MOTIVATORS
Just the pear necessities
Figure 48: Purchase motivators, April 2020
Benefit Believers want specific claims
Figure 49: Purchase motivators, by consumer segment, April 2020
INTEREST IN INNOVATIONS
Juice, now with 100% real purchase fatigue
Figure 50: Interest in innovations, April 2020
Lessons in global citizenship
Figure 51: TURF analysis – interest in innovations, April 2020
Methodology
A treat for every budget
Figure 52: Interest in innovations, by financial situation, April 2020
Enthusiastic Experimenters live up to their name
Figure 53: Interest in innovations, by consumer segment, April 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 54: Total US sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 55: Total US sales and forecast of 100% juice, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of juice drinks, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast of RTD bottled smoothies, at current prices, 2015-25
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of RTD bottled smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
Figure 61: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 62: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Figure 63: US supermarket sales of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 64: US convenience store sales of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
Figure 65: US sales of juice and juice drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 66: Multi-outlet sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of RTD bottled smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER
Figure 69: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks, by consumer segment, April 2020
Figure 70: Attitudes toward juice and juice drinks, by consumer segment, April 2020

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