European Retail Briefing: Inc Impact of COVID-19 - UK - April 2020
Analyst Comment: The Impact of COVID-19 on Shopping Behaviour 
 
Preparation for lockdown drove significant sales for the grocers 
One of the first impacts of COVID-19 across Europe was panic buying or the stockpiling of food and essentials.

This initial drive towards stockpiling was clearly driven by increased concern due to both growing domestic cases and the situation in Europe, with the lockdown in Italy particularly sparking consumers to think about how similar measures in their respective countries could impact their ability to purchase goods. In many cases, the behaviour was amplified by many of those who were not panic-buying deciding to do so when watching others clear the shelves in supermarkets and other food stores.

Among the five leading economies, stockpiling and panic buying were felt the strongest in Italy and in Spain, the two most affected countries in number of coronavirus infection cases. 

When comparing the countries, it is also interesting to see the impact of their different timelines on the increase and later decrease in stockpiling behaviour. While in Italy, France and Spain, panic buying was already peaking after mid-March 2020, Germany and the UK only witnessed this behaviour peak during the first days of April. 

In terms of age and gender, it is interesting to see that stockpiling peaks among younger women aged 16-34 in most countries, except in Germany, where the peak is for women aged 35-54. Women at this age are the most likely to be the mothers of children below 16, showing that stockpiling may have been a preventative measure to ensure their families had sufficient food. 

Nevertheless, all the five countries have seen stockpiling subside in the last week of April 2020 when compared to the beginning of the month. Food retailers quickly took steps to address the issue by allowing overnight delivery of goods, hiring more store staff, rationing of certain products and a reduction in the number of SKUs which all proved effective. Longer-term, COVID-19 may see some switch in behaviours longer term to bigger basket style shopping behaviours – which would give a boost to the channels which best serve this bigger basket demand, namely larger format stores and online.

One of the main trends we are seeing is an overall acceleration of mobile-based scanning in the grocery sector. This was already a growing trend in the UK, and the use of such technology seems to become increasingly common across Europe at the moment. Mobile scanning seems to be more popular than handheld scanners made available by certain retailers. In light of the current hygiene concerns, we expect mobile technology to become increasingly common and widespread across all age groups and both during the peak of the outbreak and in the longer-term.

Another interesting trend results from the fact that an increasing number of markets have made wearing face masks mandatory in public spaces, especially when shopping for groceries, with citizens facing a possible fine if caught without one. Some retailers have already stepped in to support this demand. Spanish retail group DIA will sell protective surgical face masks at cost price via its website, covering the markets it operates in. Moving forward with a requirement for masks becoming more common, there will be a need for more grocers to clearly explain rules and potentially offer masks to shoppers to ensure trade is not disrupted.

FIGURE 1: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers ‘stocking up’ on groceries & other supplies, Mar - Apr 2020 
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: ^500 internet users aged 16+ in each country (1,000 UK); ^^1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 20th March-25th March; 2nd April-9th April; and 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Dynata/Lightspeed/Mintel 

FIGURE 2: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers ‘stocking up’ on groceries & other supplies, by age and gender, 21st to 29th April 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Lightspeed/Mintel

Even prior to lockdown consumers were avoiding stores
The leading European countries have all imposed the closing of all non-essential stores and other lockdown measures at different dates during the second half of March 2020. However, the high level of concern seen in the early stages of the outbreak, coupled with guidance on social distancing, meant consumers were avoiding crowded spaces and using public transport before lockdown.

Germany is the exception among the big five. The proportion of those trying to avoid crowded places (29%) and public transport (13%) prior to the lockdown imposed on 22nd March were two to three times lower than in the other countries. While these behaviours have also increased in the UK after the official announcement of the closing of non-essential retail, prior to that nearly two thirds (69%) of UK consumers were already avoiding crowded spaces and nearly half (47%) were avoiding public transport. 

As countries now prepare to begin loosening their lockdown measures, stores need to prepare for the ‘new-norm’ of physical trading that COVID-19 will bring. The grocery sector has already had to adapt, with queuing and one-way systems and protection for staff and customers. These will be needed across the sector, particularly when doors first open again. As mentioned previously, some retailers are investing in mobile scanning technologies to make the shopping process in-store quicker and more efficient. Others are increase the number of slots for their ‘Click & Collect’ services and offering other ways for consumers to either shop online and to shorten the time they must spend in-store.

FIGURE 3: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers trying to avoid crowded spaces, Mar-Apr 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: ^ 500 internet users aged 16+ in each country (1,000 UK); ^^ 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Dynata/Lightspeed/Mintel

FIGURE 4: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers trying to avoid public transport, Mar-Apr 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: ^ 500 internet users aged 16+ in each country (1,000 UK); ^^ 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Dynata/Lightspeed/Mintel

It is needless to say that measures will be needed, and we should expect many consumers to stay away in spite of them due to ongoing concerns around contracting the virus. 

That said, once restrictions are officially loosened and/or lifted in most countries during May 2020, there is an opportunity for retail locations to gain patronage, especially if other destination businesses like cinemas, foodservice and bars are still required to remain closed. Many consumers may see retail destinations as places to have a ‘day-out’ and therefore it is imperative that stores properly prepare for this by implementing measures to keep staff and customers safe, avoiding a second wave of infections. 

We have seen a variety of initiatives and innovative ways to cope with the new state of play. Carrefour has installed a disinfection unit by the entrance to one of its stores, and is testing its effectiveness to potentially roll out the initiative to other locations. In addition to standardising the disinfection procedure for customers to enter the store, it also allows the retailer to limit and control access. 

Belgian startup Para Ti went further and is using technology comparable to that of Amazon Go, which allows it to offer a fully automated and unmanned food store. Sensors are therefore present to detect customer purchases and payment is automatic, and the store can operate 24/7. A similar format which has also been launched is Moby Mart which is an automated 24/7 unmanned store and was launched in Shanghai in 2019.

FIGURE 5: Example of unmanned convenience store by The Moby Mart, 2020
  
Source: The Moby Mart

In the US OpenTable, a business traditionally designed to book tables at restaurants, has launched into the retail sector allowing retailers to use its platform for consumers to book appointments to visit stores. Such thinking may be needed at smaller stores, where only a few customers can enter at once, but equally applied to larger stores to ease queuing congestion and add convenience for shoppers.

FIGURE 6: OpenTable retail slot booking system, San Francisco May 2020 
  
Source: OpenTable.com

Whilst the measures taken may differ from retailer-to-retailer what is imperative is that retailers react and seek to ease consumer concerns around visiting stores. Footfall will naturally be impacted in the short-to-medium term but retailers can look to ease this impact by showing a positive response to trading in the ‘new-norm’ brought by COVID-19. 

Significant demand has shifted to online, but this is causing a strain
As consumers had to adhere to strict lockdown measures and most non-food stores were closed to help stop the spread of the COVID-19 in their respective countries, we have seen a considerable growth in online demand. 

This increase was especially felt by the grocery sector in light of the stockpiling behaviour. The shift to online was also boosted by the demand from those in more vulnerable and more likely to be infected groups, who could no longer buy food and essential goods in-store.

The proportion of those who increased the amount of shopping they do online appears to have stabilised around 23% in France and slightly higher in Italy (~30%). In the other three countries, it continues to grow, peaking at 36% for the UK at the end of April 2020.

FIGURE 6: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers increasing the amount of shopping done online, Mar - Apr 2020 
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: ^ 500 internet users aged 16+ in each country (1,000 UK); ^^ 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 20th March-25th March; 2nd April-9th April; and 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Dynata/Lightspeed/Mintel

Retailers have reacted quickly by adding capacity and staff, trying to diverge some of the added demand of the stores to their online businesses. Whilst this has eased the situation services remain at high capacity and priority is being given to those shoppers most in need of delivered groceries. As a result, in many cases retailers had to limit delivery slots and the amount of items customers can buy online.

There have been other examples of retailers coping with the increase in online demand, for example by temporarily relocating their existing staff to support the online team. In Germany, Aldi and McDonalds have entered a staff-sharing deal, allowing McDonald’s employees to be referred to Aldi stores and used there as required on a temporary basis. After the assignment, staff members can return to their original positions in the fast food restaurants.

American clothing company Levi Strauss is effectively operating dark stores, in the manner grocers traditionally due, using existing stores to support and fulfil orders from their online business.. 

The increase in online demand appears to be more evenly distributed across age groups and genders in most countries but it clearly peaks for younger consumers aged 16-34 in Germany and in the UK. Interestingly, the proportion is higher among men in the former, and among women in the latter.

FIGURE 7: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers increasing the amount of shopping done online, by age and gender, 21st to 29th April 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Lightspeed/Mintel

FIGURE 8: COVID-19 Tracker: Consumers increasing the amount of shopping done online, 21st to 29th April 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Lightspeed/Mintel

Growing online use is not simply being registered within the grocery sector of course, and it is notable that within our data the number doing more online shopping has doubled since non-essential stores have closed. Indeed what COVID-19 has done is starkly show the benefits of operating a well invested in online operation, with either those without online capability like Lidl having no resource to sell through during the crisis and those with less developed online capability reaching capacity. However, there are ways around this, such as the case of Aldi in the UK. The discounter does not normally operate a food delivery business in the country but launched its essentials food box for £24.99 including home delivery. 

Others have turned to new delivery partners to tap into this growth of online. We have seen multiple grocers across Europe partner with courier-based delivery platforms, such as Carrefour and Costcutter with UberEats and M&S with Deliveroo, and such platforms can allow for an easier way for retailers without an online presence, or a same-day delivery option, to tap into this demand.

FIGURE 9: Uber Eats driver picking-up groceries order, April 2020
  
Source: Costcutter 

As mentioned before, even when stores reopen we expect there to be greater than usual online demand as consumers remain cautious about physical shopping. There will then be a continued benefit to those who excel in the online channel past the peak of the outbreak.

Certain COVID-19 behaviours will have a legacy beyond the outbreak
While we are seeing a number of consumer behaviours changing during the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect some of those changes to have a more long-lasting effect. Naturally, due to the nature of the outbreak, we have seen consumers far more invested in their personal hygiene. Following Governmental advice we have seen a majority of consumers register that they are washing their hands more often and use hand sanitizer more often as well. Retailers have also responded, some of which started to offer hand sanitiser and tissues to disinfect hands, baskets and trolleys when entering their stores.

There is also another effect of the pandemic, which is that consumers are more carefully considering things they come into contact. Cash is an obvious example in this regard and over half of consumers are now trying to avoid using it when possible. From a legacy point of view this may accelerate more retailers to move to card-only, a trend that of course was gaining momentum before COVID-19. It may also further accelerate the roll-out of smartphone based scanning and shopping, with a number of Grocers, included Asda and Carrefour, promoting this technology as a more ‘hygienic’ way of shopping in comparison to traditional hand-held scanners. 

FIGURE 10: COVID-19 Tracker: Changes in consumer behaviour during the outbreak, 27th March - 6th April 2020
 
“Have you or your family made any changes as a result of the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak?”

Base: 1,000 internet users aged 16+ in each country
 
* UK research carried out 16th April - 23rd April

Source: Lightspeed/Mintel

Growing mask use brings a new category for fashion and beauty to trade in 
A certain proportion of consumers are already wearing masks in public. This behaviour is particularly strong in the more affected countries, peaking at 74% in Italy and 48% in Spain. At the time of writing (4th May 2020), 30 countries worldwide have made wearing face masks mandatory in public spaces, especially when shopping, and this number continues to grow. While masks are not yet a requirement in the UK, the number wearing masks is climbing and we expect demand to continue to rise. 

There are clear opportunities for fashion retailers to tap into the demand for ‘stylish’ masks in the short-term. The launch of these must be carefully timed however. In the UK Boohoo launched a range of masks in mid-April, however at the time the UK was struggling to meet demands for protective equipment in hospitals and whilst the two are very different products, Boohoo received a backlash and was forced to take down its range. 

When it comes to beauty and personal care, the emerging mask makeup trend has potential to continue even after the COVID-19 outbreak, especially if mask wearing becomes more common long-term as it has done in many Asian markets. Here there is a potential for beauty retailers to step in with guidance and tutorials on what products best work alongside wearing masks and what products to use after wearing masks to stop any irritation to skin.