Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties: Incl Impact of COVID-19 - US - April 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Key issues covered in this Report
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Figure 1: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on ice cream and frozen novelties, April 2020
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
The issues
Category llags behind other snack and dessert categories
Figure 3: US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, salty snacks and cookies, % change in sales growth, 2015-2019
Heavy engagement relies on parenthood
Figure 4: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, by parental status, January 2020
There’s a disconnect in BFY attitudes vs offerings
Figure 5: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, January 2020
The opportunities
Adapt to shifting ways of food and drink shopping
Keep it simple, functional
Figure 6: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, January 2020
Make novelties an adult occasion
Figure 7: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
Remain flavor forward
Figure 8: Flavor interest, January 2020
THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES
What you need to know
Figure 9: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on ice cream and frozen novelties, April 2020
Opportunities and Threats
COVID-19 boost will have seasonal staying power, but then return to business as usual
Experience, nostalgia will inherently benefit the ice cream and frozen novelties brands
A return to wellbeing
Impact on the Ice Cream and Frozen Novelties market
2020 will bring highs, followed by slows
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
How the crisis will affect ice cream and frozen novelty key consumer segments
Parents and kids are an important part of the ice cream equation…
…yet the number of households with children shrinking
Figure 12: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
Now is a great time to focus on adults as individuals, too
Figure 13: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2014-24
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the Ice Cream and Frozen Novelty industry
Unemployment will shift, not disrupt, discretionary spend for some
COVID-19: US context
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Growth lags behind other treats
Frozen novelties to take the largest share of market
Restaurants scream for ice cream
Frozen treats part of a balanced diet?
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Stagnation persists in the long-term
Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Frozen novelties drive category growth
Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Snack boom gives consumers options for indulgence
Figure 16: New food US product launches by subcategory, % change 2018-2019
Parents are worried about sugar
Figure 17: Getting parents to consider new food or drinks, November 2019
MARKET FACTORS 
Consumers looking for balance
Figure 18: Attitudes toward healthy eating, September 2019
Shrinking households with children not likely to rebound soon
Figure 19: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Wells Enterprises given the cold shoulder by Halo Top declines
Fun and function
Diet ice cream results in thin sales
Milk. Cream. Sugar. Eggs.
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES
Halo Top chills Wells Enterprises’ sales while other players hold steady
Figure 20: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Novelty boom could lead to an oversaturation issue
Figure 21: Multi-outlet sales of frozen novelties, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
WHAT’S WORKING
Unique flavors
Figure 22: MULO sales of ice cream brands with unique flavors, rolling 52 weeks 2019
Function brings balance to indulgence
Figure 23: MULO sales of ice cream brands with functional benefits, rolling 52 weeks 2019
Mini sizes lead to big sales
Figure 24: MULO sales of ice cream brands with mini products, rolling 52 weeks 2019
WHAT’S STRUGGLING
The dairy-free segment is getting crowded…
Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy ice cream brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
…but there’s opportunity in nice cream
Figure 26: MULO sales of ice cream made from fruit, rolling 52 weeks 2019
Diet ice creams face a rocky road
Figure 27: MULO sales of low fat/low calorie brands and sorbet/sherbet brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
Packaged gelato struggles to find its niche
Figure 28: MULO sales of gelato brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019
WHAT TO WATCH
Back to basics
Figure 29: ice cream brands with real positioning
Plant based gives way to lab made
Figure 30: Perfect Day ice cream
Ice cream gets sustainable, ethical
Figure 31: Ethical ice cream brands
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Parents lead engagement, especially in frozen novelties
Simple is best
It’s all about flavor
TYPES OF ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES CONSUMED
Consumers still sweet on ice cream…
Figure 32: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, net, January 2020
…yet regular eengagement could use a boost
Figure 33: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, January 2020
Older consumers are ice cream traditionalists
Figure 34: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, by age, January 2020
Frozen novelty consumption driven by children
Figure 35: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, by parental status, January 2020
Novelties, sherbet, ices, sorbets can afford to get experimental
Figure 36: Ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, net, by food and drink segmentation, January 2020
HOUSEHOLD ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES CONSUMPTION
Children an important part of the ice cream equation
Figure 37: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, January 2020
Figure 38: Household ice cream and frozen novelties consumption, repertoire, by parental status, January 2020
Consumers age out of icy treats, novelties
Figure 39: Types of ice cream and frozen novelties consumed, by parental status and age of children, January 2020
IMPORTANT ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES ATTRIBUTES
Flavor comes first
Figure 40: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, January 2020
Figure 41: Ice cream and frozen novelties claims, % change 2018-2019
Indulgent varieties don’t need BFY positioning
Figure 42: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes by types consumed, January 2020
Dairy-free category is serving a small percentage of consumers
Figure 43: Ice cream and frozen novelties attributes, dairy free, by age, January 2020
ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES ATTITUDES
Health isn’t an expectation, indulgence is
Figure 44: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, January 2020
Men more willing to compromise on indulgence
Figure 45: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, by gender and age, January 2020
Parents of kids 6-11 most concerned with healthy options
Figure 46: Ice cream and frozen novelties attitudes, by children in household, January 2020
ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES ASSOCIATIONS
Frozen treats have distinct strengths and weaknesses
Figure 47: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Frozen treat associations, January 2020
Figure 48: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
Guilt is gendered
Figure 49: Ice cream and frozen novelty associations, January 2020
FLAVOR INTEREST IN ICE CREAM AND FROZEN NOVELTIES 
The more flavor, the better
Figure 50: Flavor interest, January 2020
Older consumers less adventurous
Figure 51: Flavor interest, by age, January 2020
Women hungrier for flavors
Figure 52: Flavor interest, by age and gender, January 2020
INNOVATION TO DRIVE TRIAL
Consumers motivated by indulgence, especially a permissible or functional one
Figure 53: Innovation to drive trial, January 2020
Motivations vary by age
Figure 54: Innovation to drive trial, by age, January 2020
Parents seeking out BFY options
Figure 55: Innovation to drive trial, January 2020
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Further Analysis Methodology
Correspondence Analysis
TURF
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream and frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 57: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen novelties, by type, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of ice cream, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 63: Total retail sales of ice cream and frozen dairy desserts, by type, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of sherbet/sorbet/ices, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
APPENDIX – RETAIL CHANNELS  
Figure 68: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 69: Total US retail sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 70: US supermarket sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 71: US drugstore sales of ice cream and frozen novelties, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 72: US sales of ice cream and frozen novelties through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of ice cream, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of frozen yogurt/non-dairy, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of sherbet/sorbet/ices, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020