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Cider - UK - February 2020

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Cider sales dive after the hot summer of 2018
Figure 1: Total value sales of cider, 2014-24
Duties remain frozen but the government introduces new tax band
Hot summer of 2018 boosts cider sales
Health considerations encouraging people to cut back
Ageing UK population offers little support to cider
Companies and brands
Thatchers and Westons perform well in a struggling retail market
Heineken retains a third of the retail market
Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail cider market, 2018/19*
Further activity in flavoured ciders
Thatchers leads on advertising spend in 2019
2019 sees experiential and experimental campaigns
The consumer
Almost half of adults drink cider
Figure 3: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2018 and October 2019
Cider is perceived as refreshing but not particularly a treat
Figure 4: Perceptions of different types of alcoholic drinks, October 2019
Taste and price dominate considerations
Figure 5: Factors which people prioritise when choosing between different ciders, October 2019
Figure 6: Factors which would encourage people to pay more for cider, October 2019
‘Better for you’ ciders have scope for growth
Figure 7: Behaviours relating to cider, October 2019
Clear interest in low/non-alcoholic ciders but barriers remain
Figure 8: Attitudes towards cider, October 2019
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Could hard seltzers steal share from flavoured cider?
The facts
The implications
Thatchers Zero should build further momentum for low/no-alcohol cider
The facts
The implications
Premium ciders continue to offer opportunities
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Cider sales drop after the hot summer of 2018
On-trade leads for value sales, but off-trade dominates volumes
Duties remain frozen but the government introduces new tax band
Hot summer of 2018 boosts cider sales
Health considerations encouraging people to cut back
Ageing UK population offers little support to cider
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Cider sales fall after the hot summer of 2018
Figure 9: Total value and volume sales of cider, 2014-24
Cider’s average price is on the rise
An ageing population and alcohol moderation are problematic for cider
Limited growth forecast for cider
Figure 10: Total value sales of cider, 2014-24
Figure 11: Total volume sales of cider, 2014-24
Forecast methodology
Cider’s 2019 slump halts growth
Figure 12: Five-year trend of value sales for the main alcoholic drink categories, 2015-19
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Off-trade sales drag down the market
Figure 13: Value and volume sales of cider in the off and on-trade, 2014-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Multiple factors affect cider prices
Duty freeze provides some relief for cider producers
Figure 14: Alcohol duties on different types of alcoholic drinks, 2010-19
Change to duty dilution laws set to raise costs for flavoured cider producers
Brexit continues to create uncertainty
Weekly earnings continue to grow
Figure 15: CPI vs average weekly earnings, Jan 2012-Dec 2019
Hot summer of 2018 boosts cider sales
Health considerations are encouraging people to cut back
Ageing UK population offers little support to cider
Cider’s unisex appeal should help the category
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Thatchers and Westons perform well in a struggling retail market
Heineken retains a third of the retail market
Further activity in flavoured ciders
Thatchers leads on advertising spend in 2019
2019 sees experiential and experimental campaigns
MARKET SHARE
Dark Fruit helps to prop up Strongbow sales
Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cider and perry market, 2016/17-2018/19
Cause for concern for flavoured ciders?
Traditional, heritage brands enjoy strong growth
Heineken retains a third of the market
Figure 17: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK retail cider and perry market, 2016/17-2018/19
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Can rosé ciders rise to the heights of dark fruits?
Figure 18: Examples of rosé-flavoured/pink ciders, 2019
More fruit-flavoured ciders hit the market
Healthier ciders become more commonplace
Figure 19: Kopparberg Balans hard seltzer, 2019
Aspall and Westons rebrand and diversify
Figure 20: Aspall’s cider innovation, 2019
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Advertising spend falls again in 2019
Figure 21: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider and perry, by media type, 2016-19
Thatchers is the leading category advertiser
Figure 22: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider and perry, by leading advertisers, 2019
Heineken continues to concentrate on Strongbow
Strongbow tweaks its advertising strategy
Old Mout continues with its campaign to save the kiwi bird
Experiential and experimental campaigns become more popular
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Almost half of adults drink cider
Cider is perceived as refreshing but not particularly a treat
Taste and price dominate considerations
Unique flavours and all-natural ingredients lead the way for trading up
‘Better for you’ ciders have scope for growth
Clear interest in low/no-alcohol ciders but barriers remain
USAGE OF CIDER
Almost half of adults drink cider
Figure 23: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2018 and October 2019
Four in 10 users drink only one or two types of cider
Figure 24: Number of different types of cider drunk in the last three months, October 2019
Apple remains the core of the cider market
A fifth drink cider made by beer brewers
Figure 25: Usage of different types of cider, October 2018 and October 2019
Usage of low/non-alcoholic cider showing promising signs
PERCEPTIONS OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF CIDER
Cider is perceived as refreshing but not particularly a treat
Figure 26: Perceptions of different types of alcoholic drinks, October 2019
Standard and flavoured ciders are viewed differently
Figure 27: Perceptions of standard and flavoured cider, October 2019
PURCHASING CIDER: PRIORITIES AND TRADING UP
Taste and price dominate considerations
Figure 28: Factors which people prioritise when choosing between different ciders, October 2019
Unique flavours and all-natural ingredients lead the way for trading up
Figure 29: Factors which would encourage people to pay more for cider, October 2019
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO CIDER
‘Better for you’ ciders have scope for growth
Figure 30: Health-related behaviours relating to cider, October 2019
Potential for growing cider out of home
Figure 31: Out-of-home-related behaviours relating to cider, October 2019
Experimentation remains key to the cider market
Figure 32: Taste-related behaviours relating to cider, October 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CIDER
Clear interest in low/no-alcohol ciders but barriers remain
Figure 33: Attitudes towards cider, October 2019
Sugar is an important consideration for many drinkers
Communicating quality and treat cues key for reduced sugar ciders
Figure 34: Examples of newly launched no-lo ciders in Australia, 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 35: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by value, best- and worst-case, 2019-24
Figure 36: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2019-24
APPENDIX – ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Figure 37: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider and perry, by leading advertisers, by brand, 2019

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