Beer - US - October 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Key takeaways
Market overview
Moderate growth projected through 2024 for $117 billion market
Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
The issues
Beer attrition rates outpace that of reduction of alcohol consumption in general
Figure 2: Change in beer consumption compared to a year ago, by age, July 2019
Are beer drinkers confusing health with ‘diet”?
Figure 3: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, July 2019
On premise declines challenge path to product discovery
Figure 4: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-2018
The opportunities
Strategic innovation is sticking
Figure 5: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, July 2019
Attitudes on flavor, occasion and choice offer ways to expand reach
Figure 6: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer choice, July 2019
Millennials still rule the world, keep your eye on Gen Z
Figure 7: Alcoholic drink consumption, by generation, July 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dollar sales reach $117 billion in 2019
Light beer leads the category, yet losing share to imports and craft
Wine and spirits stealing the spotlight from beer
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider market posts modest growth
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and alcoholic cider, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Declines in volume sales are leveling off
Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, 2014-22
Figure 12: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, 2014-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Light, premium and imports together comprise three quarters of market
Figure 13: Volume sales of beer market, by segment, 2019
Imported and craft segments fueling the category
Figure 14: Total US volume sales and forecast of beer and craft beer, by segment, 2017-19
Off-premise sales far outpace on-prem
Figure 15: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-2018
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Figure 16: Alcohol consumption, July 2019
Wine, spirits and RTDs grow sales
Figure 17: US retail market size, spirits and wine/sparkling wine, 2017-19
Alcoholic seltzers show stellar growth
Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of spiked seltzers in the domestic beer/ale segment, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Cannabis legalization deepens competitive field and opportunity
Figure 19: Cannabis statements – Alcohol, July 2019
MARKET FACTORS 
Consumer confidence triggers trading up
Figure 20: Consumer sentiment index, January 2007- July 2019
Pay attention to shifting generational behaviors
Figure 21: Frequency of consumption, by generation, July 2019
Younger generations – and families – are increasingly diverse
Figure 22: Distribution of population, by generation and Hispanic origin, 2019
Health-related considerations shape beer consumption
Figure 23: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age adjusted), 1999-2000 through 2015-16
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Marquee suppliers dominate, but smaller players growing
Imports and innovation drive the market
Beers draw inspiration from other drink categories
Cans account for 70% of launches, support eco-friendly claims
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF BEER
Largest suppliers dominate share, but smaller players are faster growing
Figure 24: Share of multi-outlet sales of beer, craft beer and alcoholic ciders, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending August 11, 2019
Figure 25: Multi-outlet sales of beer, craft beer and alcoholic ciders, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S WORKING
Mexican imports from Constellation Brands are strong performers
AB InBev innovation aligns with neo-traditional wellness
Cans come into fashion
Figure 26: Beer and cider launches, by pack type, 2014-19*
Environmentally friendly packaging claims have become standard
Figure 27: Beer and cider launches, by environmentally friendly packaging claims, 2014-2019*
WHAT’S STRUGGLING
In domestic beer, flagship brands struggle
Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of domestic beer/ale, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
Cider growth slows, facing competition from boozy seltzers
Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of alcoholic ciders, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Limited editions, seasonality and premium product claims decline
Figure 30: Beer launches, by select claims, 2014-2019
WHAT TO WATCH
Beer-blurring
Cocktail-flavored, hazy and dessert-inspired beers appeal to youth
Beers with more healthful and lower-alcohol profiles, or with CBD
Occasion matters to refine brand identity
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Men, Millennials, Hispanics, parents and the affluent drink more beer
Domestic beer leads, but diversity in style and source abounds
Wide-ranging selection factors, especially among the most engaged
Market attrition continues
Beer has a fun, casual reputation, that pairs well with food
ALCOHOLIC DRINK CONSUMPTION
Beer most widely consumed alcoholic beverage
Figure 31: Alcoholic drink consumption, July 2019
70% of men drink beer, less than half of women do so
Figure 32: Alcoholic drink consumption, by gender, July 2019
Millennials stand out as top beer drinkers
Figure 33: Alcoholic drink consumption, by generation, July 2019
Parents are engaged drinkers and beer tops their list
Figure 34: Alcoholic drink consumption, by parental status, July 2019
Hispanic consumers may help propel future growth
Figure 35: Alcoholic drink consumption, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
FREQUENCY OF BEER CONSUMPTION
Consumers are equally split on consumption frequency
Figure 36: Frequency of consumption, July 2019
Men are more likely to be frequent beer drinkers
Figure 37: Frequency of beer consumption, by gender, July 2019
Millennials are key, as about half drink beer regularly
Figure 38: Frequency of consumption, by generation, July 2019
Income drives frequency of consumption
Figure 39: Frequency of consumption, by household income, July 2019
Parents more likely to be regular beer drinkers
Figure 40: Frequency of consumption, by parental status, July 2019
TYPES OF BEER CONSUMED
Domestic beer leads, but diversity in style and source abounds
Figure 41: Types of beer consumed, July 2019
Men drink greater number and range of beers
Figure 42: Types of beer consumed, by gender, July 2019
Millennials are top consumers of craft, flavored and hybrid beers
Figure 43: Types of beer consumed, by generation, July 2019
Most affluent consumers are strong consumers of “true-craft” beer
Figure 44: Types of beer consumed, by household income, July 2019
Hispanic consumers embrace beer imported from Mexico
Figure 45: Types of beer consumed, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
SELECTION FACTORS
Brand, style lead the consideration set
Figure 46: Selection factors when choosing a beer, July 2019
For men, many factors considered in quest for the right beer
Figure 47: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by gender, July 2019
Millennials take more selection factors into account
Figure 48: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by generation, July 2019
Wealthier consumers look beyond price to many other selection factors
Figure 49: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by household income, July 2019
Parents have greater interest in range of selection factors
Figure 50: Selection factors when choosing a beer, by parental status, July 2019
BEHAVIORS AND PREFERENCES
More than a quarter of beer drinkers report drinking less beer
Figure 51: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, July 2019
Women beer drinkers more likely than men to be cutting back
Figure 52: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by gender, July 2019
Older consumers cut back, while Millennial consumption stays stable
Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by generation, July 2019
Parents consumption holds steady; they also seek “nutritional info”
Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer consumption, by parental status, July 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARD BRANDS AND BEVERAGE TYPES
Brand is widely associated with occasion or personal identity
Figure 55: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, July 2019
For men, beer choice reflects personal identity
Figure 56: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by gender, July 2019
Millennial opinions represent strong, yet fragmented participation
Figure 57: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by generation, July 2019
Parents highly attuned to brand, and use at different occasions
Figure 58: Attitudes toward brands and beverage types, by parental status, July 2019
ATTITUDES RELATED TO CHOICE
Product choice often spontaneous
Figure 59: Attitudes and behaviors related to beer choice, July 2019
Flavor, occasion, spontaneity shape Gen Z and Millennial consumption
Figure 60: Attitudes and behaviors related to drink choice, by generation, July 2019
ATTITUDES RELATED TO HEALTH AND NUTRITION 
Health-related considerations prime for about three to four in 10
Figure 61: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, July 2019
Younger beer drinker confuse health with diet
Figure 62: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutriition, by generation, July 2019
Opportunity with parents in offering more healthy beer options
Figure 63: Attitudes and behaviors related to health and nutrition, by parental status, July 2019
ASSOCIATIONS WITH ALCOHOLIC DRINKS AND BEER
Beer seen as fun drink for unwinding and pairing with some foods
Figure 64: Associations with alcoholic drinks and beer, July 2019
Men’s glowing views of beer contrast sharply with women’s
Figure 65: Associations with beer, by gender, July 2019
Gen Z needs some coaching from brands
Figure 66: Associations with beer, by generation, July 2019
Hispanic consumers associate beer with fun, good taste and high quality
Figure 67: Associations with beer, by Hispanic origin, July 2019
BEER PURCHASE LOCATION
The vast majority – eight in 10 – most often purchase beer off-premise
Figure 68: Beer purchase location, July 2019
Supermarkets lead purchase location
Figure 69: Beer purchase location, July 2019
Millennials use a wider range of off- and on-premise locations
Figure 70: Off-premise and on-premise purchase (most and also), by generation, July 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 71: Total US sales and forecast of beer, craft beer and cider, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 72: Total US volume sales and forecast of light beer, 2014-22
Figure 73: Total US volume sales and forecast of super premium and premium beer, 2014-21
Figure 74: Total US volume sales and forecast of imported beer, 2014-22
Figure 75: Total US volume sales and forecast of craft beer, 2014-22
Figure 76: Total US volume sales and forecast of popular beer, 2014-22
Figure 77: Total US volume sales and forecast of ice beer, 2014-22
Figure 78: Total US volume sales and forecast of malt liquor, 2014-22
Figure 79: Total US volume sales of alcoholic cider, 2014-18
Figure 80: US volume sales of beer, craft beer and FMBs, by channel, 2014-18
Figure 81: US volume sales of beverage alcohol, by channel, 2014-18