Perimeter of the Store - US - September 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
Key takeaways
The issues
Steady modest growth for the perimeter amid increased competition
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-2022
Younger shoppers less likely to rely on traditional supermarkets
Figure 2: Perimeter retailers shopped, by age, June 2019
Emphasis on freshness a common denominator across the perimeter
The opportunities
Shopping habits less well-established, younger shoppers a key target for perimeter
Figure 3: Perimeter shopping behaviors, by age, June 2019
Adding convenience to fresh
Figure 4: Interest in perimeter product concepts, June 2019
Younger shoppers open to ideas while shopping
Figure 5: Interest in perimeter service concepts, by age, June 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Steady modest growth for the perimeter amid increased competition
Fresh produce leads perimeter sales and growth
Center-store sales overall trail perimeter
Most consumers report making an effort to eat healthy
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Steady modest growth for the perimeter amid increased competition
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-22
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at current prices, 2014-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Fresh produce leads perimeter sales and growth
Meat, poultry and seafood generate modest growth
Declining milk consumption pulls down dairy sales
In-store bakery an indulgent counterpoint to the rest of the perimeter
Grocery retailers place increasing emphasis on prepared foods
Figure 8: Total US retail sales of perimeter-of-store foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-19
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Center-store sales overall trail perimeter
Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of center of the store, at current prices, 2014-24
Frozen aisle emerges as a hot spot, possibly complementing perimeter
Figure 10: Sales of center of the store, in billions, by segment, 2014-24
An expanding array of options beyond the store for fresh meals
Figure 11: Restaurant delivery and carry out net usage in the past three months, by generation, September 2018
MARKET FACTORS 
Obesity rates rising
Hispanics, particularly Millennials, seeking healthier foods
Figure 12: US population, by Hispanic origin, 2017
Most consumers report making an effort to eat healthy
Figure 13: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Grocery retailers look to prepared foods for differentiation
Small perimeter-focused stores could be a big part of the future of grocery
WHAT’S HAPPENING?
Grocery retailers look to prepared foods for differentiation
Value-added fresh products appeal to interest in convenience and health
WHAT’S NEXT?
Small perimeter-focused stores could be a big part of the future of grocery
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Supermarkets hold the top spot but face challenge with young shoppers
Emphasis on freshness a common denominator across the perimeter
Breaking the routine
Opportunities across the board to make local a point of difference
Younger shoppers open to ideas while shopping
Perimeter remains a focal point for shopper engagement and loyalty
PERIMETER RETAILERS
Supermarkets continue to hold the top spot for perimeter shopping
A variety of other retailers claim occasional perimeter purchasing
Figure 14: Perimeter retailers shopped, June 2019
Younger shoppers less likely to rely on traditional supermarkets
Figure 15: Perimeter retailers shopped, by age, June 2019
SHOPPING PRIORITIES BY PERIMETER DEPARTMENT
Emphasis on freshness a common denominator across the perimeter
Secondary factors show greater differentiation across departments
Figure 16: Shopping priorities by perimeter department, June 2019
Younger shoppers more likely to look beyond freshness and cost
Figure 17: Shopping priorities by perimeter department – Fresh meat, by age, June 2019
Figure 18: Shopping priorities by perimeter department – Fresh produce, by age, June 2019
PERIMETER SHOPPING BEHAVIORS
Breaking the routine
Figure 19: Perimeter shopping behaviors, June 2019
Shopping habits less well-established, younger shoppers a key target for perimeter
Figure 20: Perimeter shopping behaviors, by age, June 2019
INTEREST IN PERIMETER PRODUCT CONCEPTS
Opportunities across the board to make local a point of difference
Adding convenience to fresh
Figure 21: Interest in perimeter product concepts, June 2019
Younger shoppers especially attuned to convenience
Figure 22: Interest in perimeter product concepts, by age, June 2019
INTEREST IN PERIMETER SERVICE CONCEPTS
Sampling stations an opportunity for retailers to show off strengths
Nutrition signage more appealing than in-store dieticians
Figure 23: Interest in perimeter service concepts, June 2019
Younger shoppers open to ideas while shopping
Figure 24: Interest in perimeter service concepts, by age, June 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARD THE PERIMETER
Perimeter remains a focal point for shopper engagement and loyalty
Opportunity to position prepared foods as complementary to home cooking
Figure 25: Attitudes toward the perimeter, June 2019
Younger shoppers look to perimeter as a solution
Figure 26: Attitudes toward the perimeter, by age, June 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 27: Total US sales and forecast of perimeter-of-store foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-22
Figure 28: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh meat, poultry and seafood, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 29: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh produce, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 30: Total US retail sales and forecast of milk, butter and eggs, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 31: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store baked goods, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 32: Total US retail sales and forecast of in-store deli/prepared foods, at current prices, 2014-24