Frozen Breakfast Foods - US - July 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
What you need to know
Breakfast isn’t only for mornings anymore
Innovation is necessary and working
Adults need some attention
The issues
Breakfast continues to lose importance
Figure 1: Meal statements, 2016 and 2018
Consumers age out of frozen breakfast
Figure 2: Frozen breakfast consumption, april 2019
Other breakfast foods have stronger reputations
Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food perceptions, April 2019
The opportunities
Keep the grown-ups on the radar
Figure 4: Frozen breakfast attributes, April 2019
Make frozen breakfast an all-day affair
Figure 5: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Household breakfast occasions, April 2019
Build on taste, nutrition, excitement
Figure 6: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Frozen breakfast succeeds as consumers crave convenience
Breakfast foods no longer just for breakfast
Messaging will need to appeal to adults
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Frozen breakfast holds steady
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2014-2024
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of frozen breakfast, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Entrees, waffles chipping away at the mighty handheld share
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, by percent change, 2017-2019
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2014-2024
Other retail channels to surpass supermarket sales
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
MARKET PERSPECTIVE 
Frozen breakfast growth outpacing other breakfast foods
Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, yogurt and yogurt drinks and hot and cold cereal, packaged bread and eggs, milk, butter by segment, at current prices, 2014-2023
Packaged on-the-go and foodservice options battle frozen breakfast for convenience
Figure 13: Breakfast consumption, by age, April 2018
Foodservice has sparked an all-day breakfast mindset
MARKET FACTORS 
Breakfast is losing its edge as the most important meal of the day
Figure 14: Meal statements, 2016-2018
Average age spike may require some shifts from frozen breakfast brands
Figure 15: Population by age, 2013-2023
Shrinking household size could stall frozen breakfast
Figure 16: Households, by presence of related children, 2008-18
Hispanic population continues to grow
Figure 17: Percentage of population, by Hispanic origin, 2014-2024
Figure 18: Hispanic population, by age, 2014-2024
Freezer section refreshes image to remain competitive as COS categories flounder
Figure 19: Health attributes sought, May 2018
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Tyson’s innovation pays off
Breakthrough brands bring new, clean spin to classics
Private label raises the bar
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF FROZEN BREAKFAST
Tyson Foods leads the charge as General Mills falls behind
Figure 20: MULO sales of frozen breakfast food, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 21: Sales of market, by company, 2018 and 2019
Smaller brands gain momentum with clean classics
Figure 22: Other brand sales of frozen breakfast foods, 2015-2019
Private label frozen breakfasts raising the bar
Figure 23: Frozen breakfast private label premium options
WHAT’S WORKING?
Protein is the new low fat
Figure 24: Jimmy Dean: Somethin' to Eat
Figure 25: Frozen breakfast with high protein
Clean ethics
Figure 26: Frozen breakfast with ethical claims
Treat Yourself
Figure 27: Eggo Thick & Fluffy Waffle product collection
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Sugar rush
Figure 28: High sugar frozen breakfast products
(Not so) better for you alternatives
Figure 29: Legacy diet brand struggling products
WHAT’S NEXT?
Global influence beyond the mainstream
Figure 30: Breakfast and brunch menu item increases, by cuisine, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
Bringing restaurant quality food to the freezer
Figure 31: Brunch-inspired frozen breakfast foods
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Consumers grow out of frozen breakfast
Frozen breakfast is limited by breakfast
Protein is the hallmark of a good breakfast
Innovation lies in flavor and variety
In a “convenience” category, frozen breakfast has room to improve
CONSUMPTION OF FROZEN BREAKFAST
Children are the most engaged consumers
Figure 32: Frozen breakfast consumption, April 2019
Consumers age out of frozen breakfast
Figure 33: Frozen breakfast consumption, personal consumption, by age, April 2019
Households without children less likely to consume frozen breakfast
Figure 34: Frozen breakfast consumption, by parental status, April 2019
Men, especially fathers, eat frozen breakfasts
Figure 35: Frozen breakfast consumption, by parental status and gender, April 2019
Hispanic consumers report the highest personal consumption
Figure 36: Frozen breakfast consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, April 2019
TYPES OF FROZEN BREAKFAST FOODS CONSUMED
Full-size options outstrip minis
Figure 37: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by household consumption, April 2019
Adults opt for heartier, grown-up options
Figure 38: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by adult consumption, April 2019
Kids are sweet on frozen breakfast
Figure 39: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by child consumption, April 2019
Parent consumption closely mirrors child consumption
Figure 40: Types of frozen breakfast foods consumed, by adult consumption, parental status, April 2019
Parents are an engaged but fleeting consumer base
Figure 41: Repertoire of frozen breakfast types consumed, April 2019
Hispanic males consume the widest variety of frozen breakfast
Figure 42: Frozen breakfast consumption, by Hispanic origin and gender, April 2019
Older consumers look elsewhere for breakfast
Figure 43: Frozen breakfast consumption, by age, April 2019
FROZEN BREAKFAST OCCASIONS
Frozen breakfast is limited to morning
Figure 44: Correspondence analysis – Principal map – Household breakfast occasions, April 2019
Figure 45: Frozen breakfast occasions, April 2019
Lack of occasions opens up doors for encouraging routine
Figure 46: Frozen breakfast occasions, April 2019
Away from home opportunity is up for grabs
Figure 47: Breakfast consumption occasions, April 2019
Millennials see versatility in frozen breakfast more than older consumers
Figure 48: Frozen breakfast occasions, by generation, April 2019
IMPORTANT ATTRIBUTES
Protein is the priority...
Figure 49: Frozen breakfast attributes, April 2019
...but BFY expectations are stronger from foodservice operators
Figure 50: Healthy breakfast for breakfast/brunch diners, April 2018
Sweet breakfast eaters hungry for protein
Figure 51: Frozen breakfast consumption, high protein, April 2019
Packaging importance changes as consumers age
Figure 52: frozen breakfast attributes, packaging interest, by generation, April 2019
Generational divide on BFY attributes
Figure 53: Frozen breakfast low/no attributes, by generation, April 2019
FROZEN BREAKFAST PERCEPTIONS
Consumers have lukewarm feelings about frozen breakfast
Figure 54: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Breakfast food perceptions, April 2019
Figure 55: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
Parents view frozen breakfast as more nutritious than non-parents
Figure 56: Frozen breakfast perceptions – Nutritious, April 2019
Taste is a key driver for Hispanic and Black consumers
Figure 57: Frozen breakfast perceptions, April 2019
BREAKFAST BEHAVIORS
Consumers don’t express strict breakfast habits
Figure 58: Breakfast behaviors, April 2019
Millennials most likely to dine out for breakfast
Figure 59: Breakfast behaviors, by generation, April 2019
Men dine out more than women
Figure 60: Breakfast behaviors, by parental status, April 2019
INNOVATION TO DRIVE TRIAL 
Taste and variety will fill the excitement gap
Figure 61: Trial driving innovation, April 2019
Frozen breakfast consumers choose protein for satiety
TURF analysis
Flavors, variety and foodservice inspired
Figure 62: TURF analysis – Frozen breakfast innovations, April 2019
Parents are more eager for innovation
Figure 63: Trial driving innovation, by parental status, April 2019
(Hispanic) Millennials eager to bring brunch inside the home
Figure 64: Trial driving innovation, brunch inspired, by generation, April 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast foods, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 66: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast entrees, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen breakfast handhelds, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen waffles, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
APPENDIX – RETAIL CHANNELS
Figure 70: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 71: Total US retail sales of frozen breakfast foods, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Figure 72: US supermarket sales of frozen breakfast foods, at current prices, 2014-19
Figure 73: US sales of frozen breakfast foods through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast entrees, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of frozen breakfast handhelds, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of frozen waffles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 78: Simmons, breakfast attitude, November 2018