Coffee - US - July 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
Key takeaways
The issues
Coffee leaders are falling behind
Figure 1: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
Beverages are blurring, but their threat to coffee is clear
Figure 2: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
The opportunities
RTD coffee outshines the rest
Figure 3: RTD coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
Is coffee the key to relaxation?
Figure 4: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
Espresso opportunity in US still looms large
Figure 5: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, may 2019
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Coffee and creamer markets chart growth by meeting both health and taste demands
RTD coffee drives segment growth, steals market share
Blurring beverages pose a competitive threat to coffee
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Coffee is projected to grow moderately through 2024
Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at current prices, 2014-24
The cream and creamer market will grow respectably alongside coffee
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream and creamers, at current prices, 2014-24
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Roasted coffee market share falls in favor of other formats
Figure 9: Percentage market share of coffee market, by segment, 2017 and 2019
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Single-cup and RTD coffee forecasted to grow sales through 2024
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
Consumers increasingly source coffee from nontraditional channels
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Coffee has growing competitive strength but faces threats from caffeinated water and more
Figure 13: Beverage purchase for at-home consumption, April 2017 and 2019
Foodservice coffee continues to perform well
MARKET FACTORS 
A strong economy encourages lower- and middle-income consumers to spend on beverages
Figure 14: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-June 2019
Young consumers choose nontraditional options for their primary coffee beverage
Figure 15: Coffee consumption – Drink most often, by age, May 2019
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Top coffee players continue to lose share
The darker the better for today’s coffee
RTD is a bright spot thanks to innovation
BRAND SALES OF COFFEE
The biggest coffee brands continue to lose share
Figure 16: Multi-outlet sales of coffee, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
WHAT’S WORKING?
Whole bean coffee
Espresso and darker coffee roasts
Functional RTD coffee
Plant-based RTDs and standalone creamers
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Roasted coffee legacy brands struggle to keep up
Instant coffee hasn’t overcome its lower quality perception
WHAT’S NEXT?
CBD coffee
Will flash brew be the next cold brew?
Edible coffee
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
RTD coffee is poised for growth
Consumers turn to coffee for new and different functions
Consumers want coffee to offer health attributes above all else
COFFEE CONSUMPTION
Consumers tend to drink RTD coffee in addition to the coffee they drink most
Figure 17: Coffee consumption – NET coffee varieties, May 2019
Most consumers drink at least two types of coffee
Figure 18: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by repertoire analysis, May 2019
Espresso drinks tend to be supplemental to another, more frequently consumed type of coffee
Figure 19: Coffee consumption – Grounds, pods and instant, May 2019
Consumers seek out flavors in RTD coffee beverages
Figure 20: Coffee consumption – RTD, May 2019
Consumers are drinking more decaf coffee and flavored RTD cold brew
Figure 21: Change in coffee consumption year over year – NET any drink, May 2018 and 2019
Young consumers are driving RTD and espresso growth
Figure 22: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by age, May 2019
Higher-income consumers drink more coffee from pods
Figure 23: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by household income, May 2019
Hispanic consumers drive RTD coffee growth
Figure 24: Coffee consumption – NET any drink, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
COFFEE ADDITIONS
Consumers are adding less sugar to their coffee drinks
Figure 25: Coffee and tea additions, April 2017 and 2019
PREMIUM COFFEE QUALITIES & PRICE SENSITIVITY
Consumers prioritize coffee that’s clean and free of artificial ingredients
Figure 26: Premium coffee qualities, May 2019
Marketing coffee as both clean and free of artificial ingredients will appeal to the majority of coffee consumers
Figure 27: Premium coffee qualities, by TURF analysis, May 2019
Millennials seek out premium, artisan coffee qualities
Figure 28: Premium coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
Parents drive demand for premium coffee qualities
Figure 29: Premium coffee qualities, by parental status, May 2019
Fair trade has a slightly lower price threshold than organic or third-party environmental certified coffee
Figure 30: Price sensitivity to premium coffee qualities, May 2019
FUNCTIONAL COFFEE QUALITIES
Consumers like to be told how their coffee is helping them
Figure 31: Functional coffee qualities, May 2019
Women drive demand for several functional coffee ingredients
Figure 32: Functional coffee qualities, by gender, May 2019
Gen Zers and Millennials are the most interested in CBD coffee
Figure 33: Functional coffee qualities, by generation, May 2019
Hispanic consumers overindex in functional coffee ingredient interest
Figure 34: Functional coffee qualities, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
COFFEE FLAVORS
Vanilla, mocha and caramel are leading coffee flavors by far
Figure 35: Coffee flavors, May 2019
Young women drive demand for coffee flavor innovation
Figure 36: Coffee flavors, by gender and age, May 2019
Most Black consumers prefer caramel coffee flavors
Figure 37: Coffee flavors, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
INNOVATIVE COFFEE CONCEPTS
Coffee products from coffee shop brands are highly appealing
Figure 38: Innovative coffee concepts, May 2019
Millennials desire innovative coffee products such as flash brewed coffee and single-serve pour over packets
Figure 39: Innovative coffee concepts, by generation, May 2019
Middle-income consumers drive coffee product innovation
Figure 40: Innovative coffee concepts, by household income, May 2019
Hispanic coffee consumers seek out international-style coffee and innovative RTD
Figure 41: Innovative coffee concepts, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
COFFEE ATTITUDES
Only three in 10 coffee consumers say they care about the farmers who make their coffee
Figure 42: Coffee attitudes, May 2019
Millennials are trading from ground coffee to whole beans for quality reasons
Figure 43: Coffee attitudes, by generation, May 2019
Affluent consumers are also driving growth of whole bean coffee
Figure 44: Coffee attitudes, by income, May 2019
White consumers who drink coffee think freshly ground coffee tastes better
Figure 45: Coffee attitudes, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET
Figure 46: Total US retail sales and forecast of coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 47: Total US retail sales and forecast of roasted coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of single-cup coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of instant coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of ready-to-drink coffee, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Figure 51: Total US retail sales of coffee, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 52: Multi-outlet sales of roasted coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 53: Multi-outlet sales of single-cup coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 54: Multi-outlet sales of instant coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Figure 55: Multi-outlet sales of ready-to-drink coffee, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
TURF methodology