Winter Holiday Shopping - US - July 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
2018 review and 2019 expectations
What you want to know
What we see
Attitudes toward holiday shopping
What you want to know
What we see
Shopping timeframe
What you want to know
What we see
Retailer preferences and drivers
What you want to know
What we see
Planning and shopping behavior
What you want to know
What we see
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Winter holiday sales grew in 2018, but were stifled by underperformance in December
Sales set to increase, but at a slower pace
Macroeconomic factors bode well for upcoming season, but impact of tariffs yet to be seen
Condensed shopping timeframe
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 
Historical November/December sales
Holiday season expected to trump 2018 by nearly $20 billion
Figure 1: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 2: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2009-19
2019 year-to-date retail sales
Volatile sales pattern thus far leads to uncertainty for upcoming holidays
Figure 3: Total 2019 monthly US retail sales, May 2019
Consumer spending during 2018 holidays expected to exceed $850; three out of four dollars spent on gifts
Figure 4: Anticipated average expenditures for winter holidays, in current dollars, 2013-18
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
MARKET FACTORS
Consumers are feeling confident about their finances
Figure 5: Current financial situation, October 2018
Figure 6: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-April 2019
Macroeconomic factors reflect signs of slow growth
Figure 7: GDP change from previous period and consumption expenditures, 2007-Q1 2019
Figure 8: Disposable personal income change from previous period, January 2007-March 2019
Figure 9: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2007-17
Figure 10: Consumer Price Index change from previous period, January 2017-March 2019
Figure 11: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-April 2019
Impact of tariffs could lead to price increases
Presence of children (or lack thereof) could influence spending
Figure 12: Households with related children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2018
Less time to shop this year
Amazon offers free one-day delivery to Prime members
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Apparel and ecommerce big winners
Event-based promotions, email and pop-ups shops among tactics used to attract shoppers’ attention
Department stores still lagged behind
Elevated convenience will up the competitive ante
Tech stays hot
WHO STOOD OUT IN 2018?
No surprise – Amazon won again!
Besides Amazon, ecommerce strong across the board
A resurgence for apparel
Figure 13: REI, Black Friday TV ad: OptOutside, One Tree Planted, November 2018
Pop-up shops lit up the holiday shopping experience
Figure 14: The Market @ Macy’s holiday pop-up, November 2018
Figure 15: Wayfair holiday pop-up, November 2018
Even non-retailers get in on Black Friday hype
Figure 16: New York Public Library Black Friday ad, New York Times, November 2018
Mentions of savings, deals and free shipping drove email engagement
Figure 17: Amazon email, November 2018
Figure 18: Bath & Body Works’ candle day email, November 2018
Figure 19: Bath & Body Works’ candle day Instagram post, December 2018
Figure 20: Kohl’s email, November 2018
Figure 21: Target email, November 2018
Figure 22: Walmart email, November 2018
Figure 23: Macy’s email, November 2018
Figure 24: ULTA beauty email, November 2018
WHO STRUGGLED?
Department stores continued to face challenges
Site issues plagued some retailers
Figure 25: Consumer tweet on J. Crew’s Twitter page, November 2018
WHAT’S NEXT?
Digital layaway programs likely to see gains
The year of click-and-collect
Figure 26: Engagement or interest in option to purchase online and pick up in-store, February 2019
Familiar trends drive holiday wish lists
Gifting made easier through registries, tech, personal service
Figure 27: Nordstrom customer acquisition email, December 2018
Figure 28: GiftNow acquisition emails, Kenneth Cole – February 2019, Saks Fifth Avenue – December 2018
More active promotion of unconventional gifting occasions
Figure 29: Aveda Singles’ Day customer acquisition email, November 2018
Figure 30: BCBGMAXAZRIA Friendsgiving customer acquisition email, November 2018
Toys“R”Us re-emerges
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Not all shoppers are the same
It’s not all about price
Experiential gifts on the rise
2019 set to be another record year for online and mobile sales
Digital tools play a key role in helping shoppers get organized
Every day counts this year as the holiday season is condensed
WHO’S SHOPPING?
Dimensionalizing shoppers enables precision targeting
Figure 31: Winter holiday shopper segments, April 2019
Experiential Shoppers
Characteristics
Opportunities
Figure 32: Profile of experiential shoppers, April 2019
Budget Shoppers
Characteristics
Opportunities
Figure 33: Profile of budget shoppers, April 2019
Disengaged Shoppers
Characteristics
Opportunities
Figure 34: Profile of disengaged shoppers, April 2019
Efficient Shoppers
Characteristics
Opportunities
Figure 35: Profile of efficient shoppers, April 2019
CONSUMERS’ AFFILIATIONS WITH THE WINTER HOLIDAY SEASON
Consumers associate the holidays with family and deals
Figure 36: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
Parents are optimistic about the time period
Figure 37: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, by parental status, April 2019
Winter holiday shopping is a necessity for most, but not viewed the same by all
Figure 38: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping - index, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
ITEMS PURCHASED IN 2018
Clothing, gift cards, toys among top items in 2018
Figure 39: Holiday purchases, April 2019
Parents are key buyers, but don’t forget the grandparents
Figure 40: Holiday purchases, by parental status by gender, April 2019
More than four in 10 shoppers buy 4-6 items
Figure 41: Repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
Figure 42: Cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, by repertoire of Holiday purchases, April 2019
Figure 43: Holiday purchases, by cluster of Attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
HOW AND WHERE CONSUMERS PLAN TO SHOP IN 2019
In-store preferred channel, but online not far behind
Figure 44: Preferred shopping method, April 2019
Channel consistency matters
Figure 45: Attitudes regarding pricing strategies by channel, February 2019
Mass merchandisers, Amazon, department stores top destinations
Figure 46: Planned store types to shop in 2019, April 2019
Value-oriented stores remain important to consumers of all income levels
Figure 47: Plans to shop at mass merchandisers, discount stores and dollar stores in 2019 – Any shopping (net), by household income, April 2019
SHOPPING TIMEFRAME 
Although most sales occur in November and December, holiday shopping extends outside that timeframe too
Power period still dominates
Figure 48: Shopping timeframe, April 2019
Figure 49: Significance of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, by age, April 2019
Mid-late December becomes increasingly important
Figure 50: Shopping attitudes, April 2019
Not all men wait until the last minute
Figure 51: Shopping timeframe, by gender and age, April 2019
Six fewer days to shop
Thinking outside the holiday time period
Figure 52: Shopping outside the winter holiday time period, by household income, April 2019
RESEARCH AND PLANNING PROCESS 
Sources of influence
Word of mouth still holds the most weight
Figure 53: Influencers, April 2019
Figure 54: Influencers, by age and income, April 2019
Planning resources
Online shopping and wish lists play a key role in holiday planning
Figure 55: Use of wish lists and other online tools, April 2019
Figure 56: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by gender and age, April 2019
Money-related behaviors
Shoppers will open wallets for the perfect gift
Figure 57: Money-related shopping behaviors, April 2019
Figure 58: Money-related shopping behaviors, by gender and age and household income, April 2019
Figure 59: Money-related shopping behaviors, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
Retailer selection
Retailers can win shoppers through cause-related efforts and transparency
Figure 60: Factors that drive retailer choice, April 2019
ATTITUDES TOWARD HOLIDAY SHOPPING
‘Tis the season for enjoyment
Figure 61: Attitudes toward experiential aspects of shopping, April 2019
Figure 62: Attitudes toward types of gifts, by generation and race and Hispanic origin, April 2019
Shoppers are looking for creative ideas
Figure 63: Attitudes toward creativity, April 2019
Figure 64: Attitudes toward creativity, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
Saving time > saving money
Figure 65: Attitudes toward shopping process, April 2019
Figure 66: Attitudes toward time versus money involved in shopping process, by gender and age, April 2019
Figure 67: Attitudes toward shopping process, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Repertoire analysis methodology
Direct marketing creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 68: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Figure 69: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures, in current dollars, 2013-18
Figure 70: Top 10 US holiday season shopping days, ranked by retail ecommerce sales, 2018
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 71: Retailers’ average email read rates, holiday* versus non-holiday** season, December 2018
Figure 72: Read rates (%) comparison of subject line keywords, January 2019
APPENDIX – THE CONSUMER 
Figure 73: Affiliations with winter holiday shopping, April 2019
Figure 74: Use of wish lists and other online tools, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019
Figure 75: Top 10 dates for traffic and conversions during holidays - rank, 2018
Figure 76: Influencers, by cluster of attitudes toward holiday shopping, April 2019