Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter) - UK - April 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Consumers spend £3.3 billion on seasonal events
Figure 1: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Retail sales slowed in the final quarter
Figure 2: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
November online sales increasingly important
Figure 3: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
Companies and brands
Total advertising spend up 2.5% in 2018
Pop-up stores capitalise on the Halloween spirit
The year of the discount engagement ring
The consumer
Prolific back-to-school purchasing
Figure 4: Back-to-school purchasing, September 2018
One in five self-gift for Valentine’s Day
Figure 5: Gift purchasing for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
Popularity of Halloween is growing but so are concerns
Figure 6: Spending on Halloween, 2017 and 2018
More consumers are celebrating Bonfire Night at home
Figure 7: Spending on Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Sustainability comes to the forefront
The facts
The implications
Value for money becomes a priority
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Demand for seasonal products robust in 2018
Brexit begins to dampen consumer confidence
Autumn maintains greatest share of retail sales
Online penetration peaks in November
MARKET SIZES
Seasonal spending could fall in 2019
Figure 8: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2017/18 and 2018/19
Back-to-school market boosted by non-clothing
Figure 9: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products, 2018
Figure 10: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on back-to-school products, 2016-18
Fewer consumers spending money on Halloween events
Figure 11: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2018
Figure 12: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products and events, 2017 and 2018
More people celebrating Bonfire Night at home
Figure 13: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products, 2018
Figure 14: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products and events, 2017 and 2018
Consumers cut back on Valentine’s Day gifts
Figure 15: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products, 2018
Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products and experiences, 2018 and 2019
RETAIL SALES
Autumn maintains greatest share of retail spend
Figure 17: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2018
By month, December continues to dominate
Figure 18: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
The leading categories
Figure 19: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
Retail sales slowed in the final quarter
Figure 20: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
Household goods enjoy a strong year
Figure 21: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018
ONLINE RETAIL SALES
Online share peaks in November
Figure 22: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, 2017 and 2018
November also increasingly important in value terms
Figure 23: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2017 and 2018
Online growth spikes in May
Figure 24: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018
Clothing and footwear is the strongest online performer
Figure 25: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2017 and 2018
MARKET DRIVERS
Real wages grow throughout 2018
Figure 26: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, January 2014-December 2018
Brexit continues to create uncertainty
Figure 27: How consumers think Brexit will impact the UK economy, January 2019
Signals that consumers are adopting more cautious spending habits
Figure 28: Trends in what extra money is spent on, 2018 and 2019
Ongoing changes in the age structure of the population
Figure 29: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
Figure 30: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2016-26
The shift online impacts the high street
Figure 31: Change in UK retail footfall, by location, January 2016-December 2018
BLACK FRIDAY AND CHRISTMAS
Retail sales during the festive period rise 2.1%
Black Friday continues to boost spending in November
BRANDS AND COMPANIES – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Retailers spent more on advertising in 2018
Back-to-school price competition intensifies
Beauty fast becoming a core seasonal category
Retailers focus on experiences to drive sales
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Valentine’s Day
Romantic meal for two at IKEA, pasty-focused meal at Greggs and discount engagement rings
Selfridges Lip Bar to help those looking for love
Back-to-school
Lidl launches super-affordable school uniform range
Poundland positions itself as a one-stop back-to-school shop
Halloween
Pop-up stores capitalising on the Halloween spirit
Halloween Beauty Party
Spooktacular-themed beauty products from Lush
Christmas
Jingle Brow pop-up
Tiffany brings the festive season to life with immersive sensory experience
Using Christmas to make a positive environmental impact
Giving something back
Supermarket car park festive makeover
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Advertising expenditure peaks around Bonfire Night and Black Friday
Figure 32: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2017 and 2018
Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
Figure 33: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2017 and 2018
Total advertising spend up 2.5% in 2018
Figure 34: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2017 and 2018
TV share of advertising spend down year on year
Figure 35: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2017 and 2018
Digital advertising spend up year on year in 2018
Figure 36: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2017 and 2018
Back-to-school campaigns
Halloween campaigns
Christmas campaigns
Valentine’s Day campaigns
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Back-to-school shoppers want quality and convenience
Ethical and health concerns regarding Halloween are apparent
Bonfire Night is an integral part of British culture
Consumers are tired of stereotypical Valentine’s Day gifts
BACK-TO-SCHOOL
Prolific purchasing for the new school year
Figure 37: Back-to-school purchasing, September 2018
An expensive affair for parents
Figure 38: Average amount spent on back-to-school items, September 2018
Figure 39: Average amount spent on back-to-school items, 2016-18
Most still shop in-store
Figure 40: How they shopped for back-to-school items, September 2018
Supermarkets remain popular…
Figure 41: Where they shopped for back-to-school items, September 2018
…and despite their value proposition are where parents spend the most
Figure 42: Where they spent the most on back-to-school items, September 2018
Quality is a driving force in where they choose to shop
Figure 43: Important factors when choosing where to shop for back-to-school items, September 2018
Half of parents spent more in 2018
Figure 44: Back-to-school shopping behaviour, September 2018
A demand for everything in one place
Figure 45: Attitudes towards shopping for back-to-school items, September 2018
HALLOWEEN 
Just under half spent money on the event
Figure 46: Spending on Halloween, 2017 and 2018
Average spend increases
Figure 47: Average amount spent on products for Halloween, 2017 and 2018
Physical retail is still preferred by the majority
Figure 48: How they shopped for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2017 and 2018
Supermarkets take the majority of spend
Figure 49: Where they shopped for Halloween products, November 2018
Carving a pumpkin a firm tradition
Figure 50: What activities they did to celebrate Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2018
Popularity of Halloween is growing but so are concerns
Over half value social media for inspiration
Figure 51: Attitudes towards Halloween, November 2018
BONFIRE NIGHT
Purchasing for Bonfire Night decreases…
Figure 52: Spending on Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
…but those purchasing products are spending more
Figure 53: Average amount spent on products for Bonfire Night, 2017 and 2018
In-store purchasing remains the most popular
Figure 54: How they shopped for Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2017 and 2018
Grocers dominate in-store purchasing
Figure 55: Where they shopped for Bonfire Night products, November 2018
Fireworks still a firm tradition
Figure 56: What activities they did to celebrate Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2018
Bonfire Night is part of British culture
Figure 57: Attitudes towards Bonfire Night, November 2018
VALENTINE’S DAY
Most celebrate with their partner
Figure 58: Who they celebrated Valentine’s Day with, February 2019
Confectionery most purchased gift
Figure 59: Gift purchasing for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
More consumers are celebrating with experiences
Figure 60: Activity spending for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
One in five self-gift
Figure 61: Who they spent money on for Valentine’s Day, February 2019
Dramatic decline in spending
Figure 62: Average amount spent on gifts and activities for Valentine’s Day, 2018 and 2019
Last-minute shoppers
Figure 63: When consumers started planning Valentine’s Day, February 2019
Fatigue with stereotypical gifts
Figure 64: Attitudes towards Valentine’s Day, February 2019
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Additional consumer data
Back-to-school
Figure 65: Important factors when choosing where to shop for back-to-school, by where they shopped for back to school items, September 2018
Valentine’s Day
Figure 66: Gift purchasing for Valentine's Day, by who they spent money on, February 2019