Smoking Cessation and E-cigarettes - UK - January 2019

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Smoking cessation market is in decline
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
E-cigarettes see strong growth
Companies and brands
Smoking cessation sees a decline in recorded advertising spend
Figure 2: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
Advertising restrictions see E-cigarette brands go outdoors
Figure 3: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
The consumer
Smoking status sees no change
Figure 4: Smoking status, October 2016 and October 2018
Vaping sees a rise
Figure 5: Vaping status, October 2016 and October 2018
E-cigarettes are used to quit smoking
Figure 6: Reasons for using E-cigarettes, October 2018
Refillable E-cigarettes are most popular
Figure 7: Purchase of types of E-cigarettes, October 2018
Vapers shop at specialist stores
Figure 8: Places of purchase of E-cigarettes, October 2018
More smokers are quitting
Figure 9: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2016 and October 2018
More people quit in the last 12 months
Figure 10: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016 and October 2018
Usage of non-prescription NRT sees little change
Figure 11: Smoking cessation methods used, October 2018
The desire for regulation
Figure 12: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2018
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
TPD does little to hamper the vaping market
The facts
The implications
Is it time for NRT brands to embrace vaping?
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Smoking cessation is in decline…
…whilst E-cigarettes enjoy value growth
Chemists see the largest decline
Rise in teens could see E-cigarettes further regulated
Smoking is costly
E-cigarette usage is increasing
TPD has had little impact on vaping
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Smoking cessation is in decline
Figure 13: UK value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
E-cigarettes see an upsurge
Figure 14: NHS Smokefree advice on E-cigarettes, January 2019
Smoking cessation category will continue to struggle
Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2013-23
Forecast methodology
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Chemists see the largest decline
Figure 16: UK retail value sales of smoking cessation aids, by outlet type, 2017 and 2018
Own-label brands help keep multiple grocers afloat
MARKET DRIVERS
Rise in teens could refresh E-cigarette concerns
Figure 17: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-23
Smoking is expensive
Figure 18: Trends in how respondents would describe their financial situation, September 2016-September 2018
Appearance is a driver for health
Figure 19: Incentives to lead a healthier lifestyle, August 2018
Stressful lifestyles could encourage bad behaviours
E-cigarette users are on the rise
Figure 20: Number of E-cigarettes users (vapers) in Great Britain, 2012-18
TPD likely to have had little impact on vaping
Figure 21: Strength of nicotine used by current E-cigarette users in Great Britain, 2017 and 2018
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Own-label brands fare well
Own-label brands see NPD
Nicotine replacement products innovate in flavours
E-cigarettes see innovation in closed-system pens
The battle of the tobacco giants
Advertising spend in smoking cessation sees a decline
Using the power of peers
E-cigarettes go outdoors
MARKET SHARE
Own-label sees significant rise
Figure 22: Brand shares in the UK value sales of smoking cessation products, years ending October 2017 and 2018
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Own-label sees innovation
NPD in flavours
Nicorette innovates in devices
2018 sees closed-system E-cigarettes
Figure 23: Vype E-pen, July 2018
Juul comes to the UK
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Recorded advertising spend in smoking cessation sees a dip
Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on smoking cessation products, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
E-cigarette brands get outdoors
Figure 25: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on E-cigarettes, by media type, January 2015-November 2018
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Smokers remain constant whilst vapers see a rise
Vaping is used as a smoking cessation method
Refillable E-cigarettes are the most popular
Intentions to quit smoking are high
Use of non-prescription NRT shows little change
Regulation is desired
The negatives of vaping
SMOKING AND VAPING STATUS
Smoking status sees no change
Figure 26: Smoking status, October 2016 and October 2018
Vaping sees a rise
Figure 27: Vaping status, October 2016 and October 2018
REASONS FOR USING E-CIGARETTES
E-cigarettes are used to quit smoking
Figure 28: Reasons for using E-cigarettes, October 2018
Enjoyment is high in young vapers
Social norm vs faux pas
PURCHASE OF E-CIGARETTES
Refillable E-cigarettes are preferred
Figure 29: Purchase of types of E-cigarettes, by gender, October 2018
Men are using disposables
Men are engaged with the shopping experience
Figure 30: Places of purchase of E-cigarettes, by gender, October 2018
QUITTING SMOKING STATUS
More smokers are quitting
Figure 31: Intentions to quit smoking, October 2016 and October 2018
More people quit in the last 12 months
Figure 32: Status of those who have already quit, October 2016 and October 2018
E-cigarettes are popular with those trying to quit
Figure 33: Vaping status, by intentions to quit smoking, October 2018
SMOKING CESSATION METHODS USED
E-cigarettes are the most popular smoking cessation method
Figure 34: Smoking cessation methods used, October 2018
Use of NRT shows little change
ATTITUDES TOWARDS E-CIGARETTES
The desire for regulation
Figure 35: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2018
Too many young people vape…or do they?
Vaping as a gateway
Vaping vs smoking
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Forecast methodology