Cider - UK - January 2018

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Inflation is the primary driver of cider value sales growth in 2012-17
Inflation and limited volume sales expected for 2017-22
Figure 1: Total UK value sales of cider, 2012-22
Summer weather boosts sales in the off- and on-trade in 2017
UK government adds to financial pressure on companies
Health organisations warn of the dangers of alcohol
Companies and brands
Strongbow remains the retail market leader, but loses volume sales
Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail cider market, by value, 2016/17*
Smaller formats and premiumisation trends continue in 2017
More crossover brands enter the cider category
Advertising spend on cider falls in 2016
Heineken remains the leading advertiser in 2016/17
Strongbow has the highest usage, but Kopparberg is most trusted brand
The consumer
Half of UK adults drink cider
Figure 3: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2017
Ageing population to impede market growth
At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
Retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
Figure 4: Cider buying habits, October 2017
Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
Figure 5: Behaviours relating to cider, October 2017
Widely-held view of cider as good value should help to cushion the market against cutbacks
Figure 6: Attitudes towards cider, October 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
More detailed in-store grouping would be welcomed by many
The facts
The implications
Smaller servings appeal in both the off- and on-trade
The facts
The implications
Consumer sugar concerns present both a challenge and an opportunity
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Inflation is the primary driver of cider value sales growth in 2012-17
Inflation and limited volume sales expected for 2017-22
Summer weather boosts sales in the off- and on-trade in 2017
UK government adds to financial pressure on companies
Health organisations warn of the dangers of alcohol
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Cider volume sales enjoy modest growth in 2017
Inflation expected for 2017-22, but less strong than in 2017
Ageing UK population to diminish volume sales in 2017-22
Figure 7: Total UK value and volume sales of cider, 2012-22
Figure 8: Total UK value sales of cider, 2012-22
Forecast methodology
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Higher prices in the on-trade allow it to lead on values but not volumes
Figure 9: Value and volume sales of cider in the off- and on-trade, 2012-17
Summer weather boosts cider sales in both channels in 2017
MARKET DRIVERS
Various economic factors affect cider
Widely-held views of cider as good value should cushion the market amid rising pressure on household incomes
Rise in alcohol duties and inflation raise costs for cider companies
UK Supreme Court approves alcohol minimum unit price plans in Scotland
Consumers’ alcohol reduction leaves the category exposed
Health organisations urge measures to curb alcohol consumption
Consumers’ sugar concerns affect cider
Ageing UK population to hinder cider volume sales growth
Cider’s weather dependence adds an unpredictable element
Figure 10: Sunshine hours in the UK, by month, 2012-17
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Strongbow remains the retail market leader, but loses volume sales
Smaller formats and premiumisation trends continue in 2017
More crossover brands enter the cider category
Advertising spend on cider falls in 2016
Heineken remains the leading advertiser in 2016/17
Strongbow has the highest usage, but Kopparberg is most trusted brand
MARKET SHARE
Strongbow remains the leading retail cider brand, but loses volume sales as competition increases
Figure 11: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail cider market, 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 12: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK cider retail market, 2014/15-2016/17
Kopparberg gains sales as it wins shelf space
Increased advertising spend boosts Thatchers
Molson Coors takes over Aspall
Lambrini recovers sales in stagnant perry market
Figure 13: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail perry market, 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 14: Leading brand owners’ sales and shares in the UK retail perry market, 2014/15-2016/17
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Premium launches emphasise their heritage
More diversity in packaging formats
Further expansion in smaller cans
Brothers promotes its cider cartons as suited to outdoor events
Further growth in flavoured ciders
More crossover brands enter the cider category
Jack Daniel’s unveils cider/Bourbon whiskey blend
Craft brewer launches ciders and perry
Shepherd Neame moves into cider
Bulmers focuses on its farmers
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Heineken continues to lead advertising in 2016 amid fall in overall spend
Figure 15: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cider and perry, 2013-17 (sorted by 2016)
Heineken concentrates on Strongbow in 2016/17
Strongbow continues the ‘Let’s Own It’ campaign
Bulmers promotes Orchard Pioneers with idyllic countryside imagery
Old Mout continues its focus on adventure…
…and urges people to help save the kiwi bird
Thatchers emphasizes its perfectionism
Farm footage used to project image of transparency
Kopparberg continues the ‘Fånga Dagen’ campaign
Music events continue enjoyment focus while also highlighting socially responsible credentials
Social media campaign throws the spotlight on its hometown
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
Brand map
Figure 16: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2017
Key brand metrics
Figure 17: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2017
Brand attitudes: Kopparberg is the most widely seen as worth paying more for
Figure 18: Attitudes, by brand, December 2017
Brand personality: Strongbow and Magners score well on accessibility
Figure 19: Brand personality – Macro image, December 2017
Kopparberg is the most widely seen as delicious
Figure 20: Brand personality – Micro image, December 2017
Brand analysis
Kopparberg is the most trusted and recommended brand
Figure 21: User profile of Kopparberg, December 2017
Westons has associations with tradition and authenticity
Figure 22: User profile of Westons, December 2017
Thatchers also scores well on tradition and authenticity
Figure 23: User profile of Thatchers, December 2017
Magners is widely seen as accessible and fun
Figure 24: User profile of Magners, December 2017
Strongbow is the most widely seen as good value
Figure 25: User profile of Strongbow, December 2017
Lambrini performs well on the fun factor
Figure 26: User profile of Lambrini, December 2017
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Half of UK adults drink cider
Ageing population to impede market growth
At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
Retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
Widely-held view of cider as good value should help to cushion the market against cutbacks
USAGE OF CIDER
Half of UK adults drink cider
Figure 27: Usage of cider, by flavour, October 2017
Ageing UK population to hinder market growth
Half of cider drinkers have moved on from the brands of their youth
More men than women drink cider by beer brewers
Figure 28: Usage of different types of cider, October 2017
Significant overlap in usage of craft and standard ciders
USAGE OCCASIONS FOR CIDER
At home cider usage prevails over the on-trade
Smaller servings of cider in the on-trade appeal to many
‘Cider lists’ on menus allow venues to showcase their cider selection
Figure 29: Usage occasions for cider, October 2017
Dish-matching suggestions on labels would encourage drinking as meal accompaniment
Opportunities for dish-pairing suggestions on menus
Cider is more likely to be chosen for casual than formal occasions
Brands look to build associations with special occasions with wine-style bottles
CIDER BUYING FACTORS
Cider’s relative cheapness and retailer tactics underpin low brand loyalty
Figure 30: Cider buying habits, October 2017
Sampling can help to drive trial
Figure 31: Prompts to try a new brand of cider, October 2017
Link-ups with supermarket loyalty schemes could help to harness the power of discounts
Recommendations have an important influence
Discounts and giveaways should help to incentivise recommendations…
…as can ‘shared secrets’ marketing messages
Promotions are more compelling than price in driving choice
Figure 32: Factors influencing choice of cider, October 2017
Little sign of flavour fatigue among cider buyers
Few people are influenced by British ingredients
Giving details of the farm would give stronger differentiation
Cider producers could take cues from wine and refer to terroir
Low consumer awareness likely reason why named apple varieties have little influence
Need to communicate to consumers how the apple varieties affect the final taste
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO CIDER
Three quarters of drinkers/buyers want ciders to be grouped in-store by flavour profile
Figure 33: Behaviours relating to cider, October 2017
Consumers’ sugar concerns present both a challenge and an opportunity
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CIDER
Cider is widely seen as good value
Premium products can benefit from a ‘quality over quantity’ mind-set
Figure 34: Attitudes towards cider, October 2017
Smaller formats appeal widely as a way to control alcohol intake
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 35: Total UK volume sales of cider, 2012-22
Figure 36: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by value, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
Figure 37: Forecast of UK sales of cider, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
Forecast methodology