Fish and Shellfish - UK - December 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Stable prices lead to volume growth over 2015-16
Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
First volume decline for chilled fish in five years
A slow but steady volume decline forecast for chilled
Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
Market factors
2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
Figure 2: Consumer price indices – Total food, meat and fish, January 2012-October 2017
The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
Industry continues focus on sustainability
Companies and brands
Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value, 2016/17*
Only own-label escapes volume losses in tinned fish/shellfish
2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
A major premiumisation drive within frozen
Sainsbury’s encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
The consumer
Fish and shellfish are eaten by 85% of adults
Spending power and presence of children influence usage
Figure 4: Usage frequency of fish and shellfish, September 2017
A preference for a tried and tested seafood
Ease of cooking and lower prices are key selling points
Figure 5: Purchase habits of fish and shellfish, September 2017
Figure 6: Factors that would encourage trial of new types of fish/shellfish, September 2017
Figure 7: Factors influencing choice of fish/shellfish, September 2017
Concerns over canned fish processing
Consumers expect sustainability, with ratings a popular concept
Figure 8: Behaviours relating to fish and shellfish, September 2017
Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
Figure 9: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for fish and shellfish purchasing, September 2017
Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
Figure 10: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, September 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
With sustainability an expectation, supporting British fisheries can provide a strong ethical USP
The facts
The implications
Taking cues from processed meat, fish should look to “flexitarian” NPD
The facts
The implications
A need to bust the myths around canned fish processing
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Stable prices lead to volume growth over 2015-16
A hike in prices hit volume sales in 2017
First volume decline for chilled fish in five years
A slow but steady volume decline forecast for chilled
Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
Industry continues focus on sustainability
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
A hike in prices hit volume sales in 2017
Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2012-22
The future
Figure 12: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
Income squeeze will hamper growth
Health credentials keep fish on the menu
Trading down set to see affordable segments gains share
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
First volume decline for fresh fish in five years
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2012-22
Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2012-22
Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2012-22
Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
Figure 22: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
MARKET DRIVERS
2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
Figure 23: Consumer price indices – Total food, meat and fish, January 2012-October 2017
The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
Figure 24: CPI inflation vs percentage change in average weekly earnings, regular pay (excluding bonuses), January 2012-September 2017
Trade and fishing policies post-Brexit remain unresolved
Fish intake continues to fall short of recommendations
Industry continues to focus on sustainability
Retailers launch labels and initiatives
Brands work on responsible tuna sourcing
North Sea cod certified by MSC
MSC under fire for allegedly misleading consumers
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
Only own-label escapes volume declines in tinned fish/shellfish
2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
A major premiumisation drive within frozen
Sainsbury’s encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
MARKET SHARE
Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value, 2016/17*
Stable volume sales for Young’s
Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 27: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
Only own-label escapes volume losses in tinned fish/shellfish
Princes is dealt the biggest blow
Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
Figure 29: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
Nisa takes its place in own-label fish/shellfish
Figure 30: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by storage type, 2013-17
A major premiumisation drive within frozen
Iceland bolsters its premium range of fish and seafood
Saucy Fish Co makes its debut in the frozen aisle
More launches for Young’s Gastro range
Birds Eye expands its Inspirations range
Relaunch activity from Birds Eye and Young’s
Birds Eye improves its flagship Fish Finger brand
Young’s rebrands its breaded fish range
High levels of NPD activity in flavoured canned fish
Sainsbury’s new range encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
Claims relating to ease of use hit a five-year high in 2017
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
Figure 31: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by segment, 2013-17
Figure 32: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by segment, 2013-17
Saucy Fish Co claims top spot with digital campaign
Figure 33: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by company (sorted by 2017), 2013-17
Birds Eye moves away from its masterbrand strategy
Captain Birdseye returns in a bid to tap consumers’ nostalgia
Birds Eye ups spend in 2017
Birds Eye celebrates imperfect parents with #Solidaritea campaign
Young’s pushes its Gastro brand for ‘date night’
Iceland highlights the benefits of frozen
Retailers highlight sourcing in ad campaigns
Lidl’s mussels advert picks up MSC award
Waitrose spotlights tuna provenance
Tesco showcases its gold-trained fishmonger
Princes launches ‘Love Canned Food’ campaign
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
85% of adults eat fish or shellfish
Spending power and presence of children influence usage
A preference for tried and tested seafood
Ease of cooking and lower prices are key selling points
Concerns over canned fish processing
Consumers expect sustainability, with ratings a popular concept
Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
USAGE OF FISH AND SHELLFISH
Fish and shellfish are eaten by 85% of adults
Figure 34: Eating of fish and shellfish, September 2017
Frozen fish is the nation’s favourite
Figure 35: Usage frequency of fish and shellfish, September 2017
Spending power has a big influence on fish eating
Families are an important demographic for fish
Shellfish is a rarer menu feature
CHOICE FACTORS AND ENTICEMENTS FOR FISH AND SHELLFISH
A preference for tried and tested seafood
Figure 36: Purchase habits of fish and shellfish, September 2017
Ease of cooking is most likely to prompt trial
Lower prices are a strong draw
Figure 37: Factors that would encourage trial of new types of fish/shellfish, September 2017
The older generation can be won over by support for British fisheries
Young people want speed
Figure 38: Factors influencing choice of fish/shellfish, September 2017
BEHAVIOURS RELATING TO FISH AND SHELLFISH
Concerns over canned fish processing
New campaign aims to improve the image of canned food
A focus on traditional processes and absence of preservatives should resonate
Younger cohorts are more concerned than older
Figure 39: Behaviours relating to fish and shellfish, September 2017
Consumers expect sustainability
Keen interest in sustainability ratings, few have boycotted unsustainable species
Onus remains on brands to put forward their credentials
Farmed seafood is a case in point
EXPECTED REACTIONS TO INCOME SQUEEZE
Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
Figure 40: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for fish and shellfish purchasing, September 2017
Reduced promotional activity could hit volume sales
Encouraging fish swaps has potential
Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FISH AND SHELLFISH
Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
28% of people are reducing meat intake
Strong interest in added vegetables in fish cakes
Figure 41: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, September 2017
Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
The quality of frozen fish is deemed hard to ascertain
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
APPENDIX – SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2017-22
Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2017-22
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY
Figure 50: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by company (top 15 in 2017), 2013-17
Figure 51: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by claim (top 15 in 2017), 2013-17