Cookies - US - August 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Modest category growth
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Cookie consumers are habit driven
Figure 2: Cookie behavior, habitual behaviors, May 2017
Competition from other cookies, sweets and snacks
Figure 3: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies and other sweets, May 2017
Growing obesity epidemic challenges category
Figure 4: Growth in obesity among adults aged 20 and over in the united states, 2013-15
The opportunities
Increase frequency, target new consumers
Figure 5: Cookie purchase, any purchase and more than once a month, by any packaged cookies*, May 2017
Consumers seek indulgence
Figure 6: Cookie innovation, by flavor and format, May 2017
Convenience is key
Figure 7: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by packaging, May 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Category growth driven by smaller segments
Interest in indulgence helps premium, store brand cookies
BFY options small but influential
Cookies compete with sweet alternatives
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Category continues modest growth
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Dominant standard cookies struggle while smaller segments grow
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2017
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Cookies bought in wide variety of channels
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Snacks act as a treat
Figure 13: Snacking motivations, March 2017
Fresh and convenient options test packaged
Figure 14: Cookie purchase, ready-to-bake and foodservice cookies, May 2017
Sweet snacks rivalry could be occasion driven
Figure 15: Cookie purchase, other sweets, May 2017
MARKET FACTORS 
Rise in health issues may lead to BFY choices
Figure 16: Growth in health issues in the united states, 2013-15
Younger adults age into primary purchasing roles
Figure 17: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
Households with children growth stalled
Figure 18: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Big brands give way to niche
Novelty drives smaller player success
Increased brand participation in BFY cookies
Breakfast cookies don’t deliver
Indulgence gets creative
COMPANY AND BRAND SALES OF COOKIES
Mondelēz is captain of the category
Figure 19: MULO sales of cookies, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Oreo continues its standard rule
Figure 20: MULO market share of standard cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
Figure 21: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Oreo and Chips Ahoy, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
Pepperidge Farm dominates premium cookies segment
Figure 22: MULO market share of premium cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
Figure 23: MULO sales of premium cookies, by Pepperidge Farm, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
Belvita’s breakfast positioning leads BFY
Figure 24: MULO market share of better-for-you cookies, by leading brands, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
Figure 25: MULO sales of standard cookies, by Nabisco Belvita and Nature Valley, 52 weeks ending April 16, 2017
WHAT’S WORKING?
Private label brands find success in category
Figure 26: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by private label, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Niche brands trade on healthy decadence
Figure 27: MULO sales of total cookies and segments, by other brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Single serve packaging for on-the-go
Figure 28: Cookie launches, by on-the-go claim, 2014-17
Packaging that protects product quality
Thin and crispy brand extensions
Figure 29: TV Advertisement – “Oreo Thins Hypnotize” - Oreo
Clean labels allow for indulgence with less guilt
Figure 30: Cookie launches, health claims, 2014-17
Novelty and LTOs
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Breakfast cookies struggle to connect
WHAT’S NEXT?
Bootlegged flavors
Figure 31: Online video – “Tell us your Oreo creation ideas” – Oreo
Figure 32: TV Ad – “Camping Trip” – Chips Ahoy!
Category blurring
Figure 33: TV Advertisement – “New! Nature Valley Granola Cups” – Nature Valley
Protein enhanced options
Figure 34: Cookie launches, by high protein claim, 2014-17
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Cookies are pantry staples
Cookie consumers are habit driven
Cookies are snack friendly
Room to improve in packaging, flavor, and format
COOKIE PURCHASE
Cookies are a pantry staple
Figure 35: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies, other cookies, and other packaged sweets, May 2017
Parents are frequent cookie buyers
Figure 36: Cookie purchase, by any packaged cookies, by parental status, May 2017
Younger adults have broad repertoire of cookies
Figure 37: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by packaged cookie segments, by age
Men purchase cookies more frequently
Figure 38: Cookie purchase, by any cookies, packaged cookies, and other sweets, more than once a month, by gender, May 2017
Hispanics most likely to buy all types of cookies
Figure 39: Cookie purchase, any purchase, by any packaged cookies and segments, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
COOKIE BEHAVIOR
Consumers have established patterns
Figure 40: Cookie behavior, May 2017
Difference in behavior impacts cookie purchase among men and women
Figure 41: Cookie behavior, by gender, May 2017
Older adults stick with familiar, younger adults seek out variety
Figure 42: Cookie behavior, by age, May 2017
Cookies a pantry item for parents
Figure 43: Cookie behavior, by parental status, May 2017
Figure 44: Cookie behavior, by number of children under 18 in household, May 2017
COOKIE OCCASIONS
PM hours offer primary occasions
Figure 45: Cookie occasions, May 2017
AM occasions draw users of health-focused, imported cookies
Figure 46: Cookie purchase, by cookie occasions, by for breakfast, May 2017
Men less discerning about time of day
Figure 47: Cookie occasions, by gender, May 2017
COOKIE ATTITUDES
Convenience and indulgence drive popularity of packaged cookies
Figure 48: Cookie attitudes, any agree, May 2017
Age and gender play role in attitudinal differences on cookies
Figure 49: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by health and premium and store brand cookies, by gender and age, May 2017
Figure 50: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by boredom with current flavors and cookie innovation, by gender and age, May 2017
Household income impacts price consumers are willing to pay
Figure 51: Cookie attitudes, any agree, by worth paying more for and store brand cookies, by household income, May 2017
COOKIE ATTRIBUTES
Consumers indicate taste and flavor are most important cookie attributes
Figure 52: Cookie attributes, May 2017
Health attributes most important for those that eat cookies for breakfast
Figure 53: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by health, May 2017
Resealable packaging brings flexibility to cookie occasions
Figure 54: Cookie occasions, by attributes, by resealable packaging, May 2017
Taste and low sugar more important attributes for older consumers
Figure 55: Cookie attributes, by age, May 2017
Figure 56: Cookie attributes, by health, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
COOKIE INNOVATION
Consumers show interest in packaging, format, and flavor innovation
Figure 57: Cookie innovation, May 2017
Mixed offering of innovation ideal for reaching a majority of consumers
Figure 58: TURF analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
Hispanics most interested in stuffed, sweet and spicy cookies
Figure 59: Cookie innovation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2017
Parents express greater interest across most cookie innovations
Figure 60: Cookie innovation, by parental status, May 2017
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – TURF ANALYSIS
Methodology
Figure 61: Table – TURF Analysis – Cookie innovation, May 2017
APPENDIX – THE MARKET 
Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of standard cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of premium cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 68: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of better-for-you cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at current prices, 2012-22
Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of private label cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Figure 72: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2012-2017
Figure 73: Total US retail sales of cookies, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
Figure 74: US supermarket sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 75: US drugstore sales of cookies, at current prices, 2012-17
Figure 76: US sales of cookies through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS 
Figure 77: MULO sales of standard cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 78: MULO sales of premium cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
Figure 79: MULO sales of better-for-you cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017