Pizzas - UK - July 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Steady growth in pizza sales
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
Premium products boost chilled pizza
Projected decline in population of younger people
Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets
Companies and brands
Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
Figure 2: Brand shares of UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2016/17*
Increase in premium product launches
PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza
Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
The consumer
Eight in 10 people eat pizza
Figure 3: Frequency of eating different types of pizza, May 2017
Six in 10 people eat pizza as weeknight dinner
Strong interest in more healthy ingredients and provenance
Expanding beyond the traditional approach to pizza
Figure 4: Interest in trying different types of pizza, May 2017
Frozen pizza still has an image problem
Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
All-natural and premium ingredients can help boost frozen
Figure 5: Attitudes towards pizza, May 2017
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Scope for brands and retailers to expand occasions for eating pizza
The facts
The implications
All-natural and premium ingredients offer scope to boost frozen pizza
The facts
The implications
Room in market to expand beyond the traditional approach to pizza
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Steady growth in total pizza sales
Continuing growth expected in 2017 and beyond
Premium products boost chilled pizza
Frozen pizza sales hit by price competition
Projected decline in population of younger people
Growth of the child population
Discounters increase competition to brands and other retailers
Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets
Focus on healthy eating could impact on pizza sales
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Steady growth in total pizza sales
Figure 6: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chilled and frozen pizza, 2012-22
Continued growth expected for 2017 …
… and the category could benefit from people trying to save money
Figure 7: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
Figure 8: Best and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2012-22
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Premium products boost chilled pizza
Figure 9: Total UK retail volume and value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
Average prices set to increase further in 2017
Figure 10: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
Frozen pizza sales hit by price competition …
Figure 11: Total UK retail volume and value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
… but premiumisation should arrest the decline in 2017
Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
MARKET DRIVERS
Projected decline in the population of younger people
Figure 13: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
Discounters increase competition for brands and other multiples
Inflation putting a squeeze on household budgets again
Focus on healthy eating could impact on pizza sales
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
Majority of new launches own-label
Increase in premium product launches
Giving products a more artisan and ‘craft’ feel
PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza
Pizzas looking to target healthier lifestyles
Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
Dip in 2016 advertising spending on pizza
Dr Oetker by far the biggest advertiser
MARKET SHARE
Chilled pizza dominated by own-label
Figure 14: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Bigger presence for brands in frozen pizza
Figure 15: Leading brands’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Majority of new launches own-label
Figure 16: New product launches in UK pizza market, branded vs. own-label, 2012-17
Asda particularly active in NPD
Figure 17: New product launches in UK pizza market, by company, 2012-17
Increase in premium product launches
Figure 18: New product launches in UK pizza market, by claim, 2012-17
Giving pizza a more artisan and ‘craft’ feel
Taking Italian provenance a stage further
Pizzas taking influences from wider food trends
PizzaExpress moves into frozen pizza with Iceland
Pizzas with a healthier focus
Retail pizzas look to replicate takeaway more closely
More gluten-free pizzas being launched
Extending pizza offer with new bases and flavours
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Dip in 2016 advertising spending on pizza
Figure 19: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, 2013-17
Dr Oetker by far the biggest advertiser
Figure 20: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, by advertiser, 2013-17
Dr Oetker Ristorante focuses on fresh pizzeria taste message
Figure 21: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fresh and frozen pizza, by advertiser and brand, 2016
Chicago Town heavily targets young people
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Eight in 10 people eat pizza
Eating pizza at least once a week relatively common
Six in 10 people eat pizza as weeknight dinner
Pizza has most appeal as a family meal
Strong interest in more healthy ingredients and provenance
Widening the definition of pizza beyond the traditional
Frozen pizza still has an image problem
Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
All-natural and premium ingredients can help boost frozen
Half ‘n’ half pizzas have strong appeal
FREQUENCY OF EATING DIFFERENT TYPES OF PIZZA
Eight in ten people eat pizza
Figure 22: Eating of different types of pizza, May 2017
Younger bias to the eating of different types of pizza
Eating pizza at least once a week relatively common
Figure 23: Frequency of eating different types of pizza, May 2017
OCCASIONS FOR EATING PIZZA
Pizza eaten as a weeknight dinner by six in 10 people
Room to cater more for lunches and snacking
Figure 24: Mealtimes on which pizza eaten in the last three months, May 2017
New products could help expand occasions for pizza
Pizza has most appeal as a family meal
Figure 25: Who people have eaten pizza with in the last three months, May 2017
16-34s more likely to eat pizza with friends
INTEREST IN TRYING DIFFERENT TYPES OF PIZZA
Strong interest in more healthy ingredients
Figure 26: Interest in trying different types of pizza, May 2017
Details on provenance can increase product appeal
Expanding beyond the traditional approach to pizza
Three in 10 people interested in pizza kits
PERCEPTIONS OF DIFFERENT FORMATS OF PIZZA
Frozen pizza still suffering from an image problem
Figure 27: Correspondence analysis: perceptions of different formats of pizza, July 2017
Frozen pizza most closely associated with negative attributes
Need to improve the visibility of frozen pizza
Chilled pizza has edge over frozen on freshness
Still room for chilled and frozen to improve authenticity
Methodology
Figure 28: Perceptions of different formats of pizza, July 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARDS PIZZA
Premium supermarket pizzas viewed favourably
Figure 29: Attitudes towards pizza, May 2017
Strong interest in all-natural and premium ingredients in frozen
Half ‘n’ half pizzas have strong appeal
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Forecast methodology
Figure 30: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of pizza, 2012-22
Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of pizza, 2012-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SEGMENTATION
Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of chilled pizza, 2012-22
Figure 35: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail value sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecast of total UK retail volume sales of frozen pizza, 2012-22
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 38: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the chilled pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Figure 39: Leading manufacturers’ sales in the frozen pizza market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17