Dairy and Non-dairy Milk - Canada - March 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
Consumer research
Market size
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Dairy milk consumption continues to decline
Figure 1: Total per capita volume consumption of dairy milk in Canada, 2011-16
Clearer messaging can support non-dairy milk options
Figure 2: Statements related to non-dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
External factors impede dairy milk’s usage
Figure 3: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
The opportunities
Focus on core attributes when promoting dairy milk
Figure 4: Top reasons why consumers personally drink milk, January 2017
Non-dairy milk proves more popular among younger adults
Figure 5: Stated personal consumption of non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
Consumers are most likely to use dairy milk as an additive
Figure 6: How dairy milk is used, January 2017
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
International influence may lead to industry disruption
Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth, but represents a challenge for dairy
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Dairy milk declines forecast to continue
Figure 7: Canadian total volume sales and fan chart for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
Figure 8: Canadian retail volume sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
Figure 9: Canadian retail value sales and fan chart forecast for (dairy) milk, 2011-21
Figure 10: Canadian retail value sales and forecast for (dairy) milk, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET FACTORS 
International influence may lead to industry disruption
Dairy milk producers can adjust focus to appeal to Canada’s aging population
Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
Immigration fuelling Canada’s population growth
Figure 12: Foreign-born share of population by G8 country and Australia
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Dairy milk declines continue
Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
WHAT’S WORKING?
Non-dairy ‘alternatives’ capitalize on shifting demand
Figure 13: Share of launches white milk, flavoured milk and plant-based drinks (dairy alternatives) in Canada and US, 2016 vs 2011
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Dairy milk declines continue
Figure 14: Milk total volume consumption per capita, by country, 2015
Tension around the use of the term milk for dairy alternatives
WHAT’S NEXT?
Flavour exploration represents an innovation opportunity for dairy milk
Figure 15: Flavoured milk launches in North America, share by flavour, 2016
Figure 16: Sir bananas WhiteWave Foods, May 2016 (US)
Figure 17: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor, July 2016 (US)
Figure 18: Lactantia French Vanilla Partly Skimmed Milk, December 2015 (Canada)
Figure 19: Prairie Farms Chef’s Splendor Dark Chocolate Truffle Flavored Reduced Fat Milk, August 2015 (US)
Figure 20: Hangyo Mango Flavoured Milk, December 2016 (India)
Further opportunity to showcase health benefits
Figure 21: Almacenes Éxito Quinoa, Soy and Malt Drink, September 2016 (Columbia)
Figure 22: Marks & Spencer Made without Dairy Multigrain Drink, February 2017 (UK)
Figure 23: Nestlé Nesfit, Rice Smoothie with Grape, Beetroot & Ginger, April 2016 (Brazil)
Figure 24: Oatly! Apple, Beetroot & Ginger Flavoured Recovery Drink, July 2016 (Sweden)
Figure 25: Veggemo Original Veggie Based Non-Dairy Beverage, December 2015 (Canada)
Cold pressed an opportunity in the dairy milk category
Figure 26: Organic Gemini Strawberry Flavoured TigerNut Horchata, October 2015 (US)
Building milk brands at foodservice can add excitement to the category
Figure 27: Discover the Natrel Milk Bar by Java U – Toronto, October 2016
Continued investment in innovation
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
Health represents a more prominent consideration for older consumers
Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
Education key in supporting expansion of non-dairy milk
Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children
MILK USAGE
Nearly all Canadians drink milk, yet consumption is waning
Figure 28: Personal consumption of dairy milk in the past three months, by type, January 2017
Figure 29: Personal consumption of non-dairy milk in the past three months, January 2017
Canadians are most likely to use milk as an additive
Figure 30: How milk is used (overview), by consumer type, January 2017
Milk ingredient usage is a key to wholesome exploration
Figure 31: Ingredient-related milk usage, by consumer type, January 2017
Figure 32: Milk usage as an ingredient while cooking, by gender and age, January 2017
Milk usage varies by age and other demographic indicators
Figure 33: Dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
Figure 34: Non-dairy milk usage, by age, January 2017
Figure 35: Kikkoman Tonyu Inryo Apple Pie Flavour Soymilk, October 2016 (Japan)
Figure 36: Tumeric Mexican Chocolate Super Blend, April 2015 (US)
REASONS CONSUMERS DRINK MILK
Figure 37: Reasons for personally drinking milk, January 2017
Health represents more a prominent consideration for older consumers
Figure 38: Health-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by age, January 2017
Figure 39: Help Prevent Osteoporosis, October 2016
Gender influences the importance of taste
Figure 40: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
Figure 41: Hockey | Dairy Farmers of Canada, February 2017
Nostalgia’s importance increases with age and among men
Figure 42: Sensory-related reasons for personally drinking milk, by gender, January 2017
Figure 43: Milk Every Moment – “Lunch”, September 2015
Figure 44: Nostalgia-related reasons for personally drinking milk – men, by age, January 2017
ATTITUDES TOWARDS DAIRY MILK
Provenance and purity matter to Canadian consumers
Figure 45: Statements relating to dairy milk (% agree), January 2017
Figure 46: Agropur pride, September 2015
Figure 47: Provenance and hormone-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
Barriers to drinking dairy milk more prominent among younger Canadians
Figure 48: Barriers to drinking dairy milk, by age, January 2017
Figure 49: Personally consumed dairy or non-dairy milk, by age, January 2017
Younger adults more likely to show interest in innovation
Figure 50: Interest in dairy milk innovation, by age, January 2017
Figure 51: President’s Choice Vanilla Bean Kefir Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
Figure 52: Iögo Probio Kéfir Strawberry Probiotic Fermented Milk, April 2016 (Canada)
Figure 53: Danone Drinking Yogurt, January 2016 (Russia)
Figure 54: Behind The Milk Glass, October 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARDS NON-DAIRY MILK
Education key in supporting non-dairy milk expansion
Figure 55: Non-dairy milk statements (% agree), January 2017
Younger consumers hold more positive views on non-dairy milk
Figure 56: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
Figure 57: Non-dairy milk-related statements (% agree), by age, January 2017
Figure 58: Flavour and ingredients-related statements about non-dairy milk (% agree), by age, January 2017
CONSUMER GROUPS
Parents’ dairy milk usage habits influenced by children’s presence
Figure 59: Household consumption of milk, by parental status, January 2017
Chinese Canadians exhibit different behaviours with regards to milk
Figure 60: Household consumption of milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
Figure 61: Reasons for drinking milk, Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
Figure 62: Non-dairy statements (% agree), Chinese Canadians vs overall population, January 2017
Americans drink more milk
Figure 63: Total volume consumption per capita, Canada vs US, January 2017
Figure 64: Household dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
Figure 65: How dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
Figure 66: Household non-dairy milk consumption in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
Figure 67: How non-dairy milk is consumed in Canada and the US, January 2017 (Canada)/January 2016 (US)
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations