Crisps, Savoury Snacks and Nuts - UK - January 2017

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Products covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Deflation in the market in 2016
Figure 1: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
Companies and brands
Brands dominate NPD
Adspend continues to rise in 2016
Walkers stands out as a brand
Figure 2: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2016
The consumer
93% eat crisp/crisp-style snack
Figure 3: Usage of crisps and crisp-style snacks, by type, October 2016
Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
Figure 4: Factors influencing choice when buying crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
Figure 5: Behaviours related to crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
Figure 6: Attitudes towards crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts and savoury snacks, October 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
Brand extensions offer a way to create new usage occasions
The facts
The implications
Helping people to manage their intake should allow them to stay in the market
The facts
The implications
Expected income squeeze will put pressure on premium segment
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Deflation in the market in 2016
Rising prices will fuel growth to 2021
Crisps sales continue to fall
Price rises could hit discretionary spending
Health remains an issue
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Deflation in the market in 2016
Figure 7: Total UK retail value and volume sales of the crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
Figure 9: Forecast of UK volume sales of crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2011-21
Other savoury snacks see volumes rise but value sales fall in 2016
Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of other savoury snacks*, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Figure 11: Forecast of UK value sales of other savoury snacks*, 2011-21
Crisps see ongoing deflation in 2016
Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of the crisps market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Figure 13: Forecast of UK value sales of crisps, 2011-21
Nuts see ongoing rise in value and volume sales
Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of the nuts market, at current and constant prices, 2011-21
Figure 15: Forecast of UK value sales of nuts, 2011-21
Forecast methodology
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Crisps sales continue to fall
Nuts and popcorn buck sales decline
Figure 16: UK retail value sales of savoury snacks, by category, 2011-16
Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of savoury snacks, by category, 2011-16
Peanuts retain lead in the nuts segment
Figure 18: Value and volume sales of nuts, by type of nut, 2015 and 2016
MARKET DRIVERS
Consumer caution – and price rises – could hit discretionary spending
Health remains an issue …
… but there is room for occasional treats
Demographic changes could impact the market
Rise in the number of children could provide a boost
Popcorn remains most popular among the young
Catering to the older demographic
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Walkers leads potato-based snacks, despite sales decline
Walkers sees crisp sales decline
Potato snacks continue to lead NPD
Brands dominate NPD
Adspend continues to rise in 2016
Walkers stands out as a brand
MARKET SHARE 
Walkers leads potato-based snacks, despite sales decline
Pringles growth is helped by price cuts
Figure 19: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Walkers sees crisp sales decline, while premium brands grow
McCoy’s, Ritz and Jacob’s grow
Premium brands see growth
Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK crisps market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Mini Cheddars leads baked snacks and popcorn
Popcorn brands see growth
Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK baked snacks and popcorn market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Own-label continues to dominate nuts
Figure 22: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Peperami and Mattessons dominate meat snacks
LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Potato snacks continue to lead NPD
Figure 23: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by category, 2012-16
Vegetables crisps see a rise in NPD
Brands dominate NPD
Figure 24: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by brands vs own-label, 2012-16
Walkers continues to expand offering
M&S is the most active company by NPD
NPD targets sharing
Brands extend into new areas, with popcorn a key feature
PepsiCo looks to popcorn and cracker crisps
Popcorn brands look to new directions
Ritz moves into baked
Health claims remain niche
Figure 25: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by selected health claims, 2012-16
Focusing on positive nutrition
Fibre claims see a rise
Figure 26: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market with high/added fibre claim, 2012-16
Gluten-free claim continues to rise
Figure 27: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by the gluten-free claim, 2012-16
Flavour innovation provides a means of differentiation
Premium flavours
Flavour tie-ups
Mystery campaign from Doritos
Tapping into seasonal occasions
ADVERTISING AND MARKETING ACTIVITY
Adspend continues to rise in 2016
Figure 28: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2013-16
Crisps/crisp-style snacks dominate spend
Significant spend on meat snacks
Figure 29: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, 2013-16
PepsiCo leads advertiser spend
Walkers consistently advertises
Doritos calls on snackers to eliminate least favourite flavour
Intersnack supports Hula Hoops’ Golden Hoops
Pladis more than doubles spend
Kellogg’s cuts spend on Pringles
Tyrrells launches first poster campaign
Figure 30: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by top 10 advertisers (sorted by 2016), 2013-16
Walkers dominates by brand
Figure 31: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on crisps, savoury snacks and nuts, by top brands, 2016
Campaigns through alternative channels
Ten Acre launches story competition
Propercorn creates new flavour through Institute of Flavour pop-up
Fish ‘n’ Chips calls on consumers to vote red or brown
Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
BRAND RESEARCH
What you need to know
Brand map
Figure 32: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, December 2016
Key brand metrics
Figure 33: Key metrics for selected brands, December 2016
Brand attitudes: Walkers has the best all-round image
Figure 34: Attitudes, by brand, December 2016
Brand personality: Pringles is seen to be the most ‘fun’
Figure 35: Brand personality – Macro image, December 2016
Peperami is seen to be most unhealthy
Figure 36: Brand personality – Micro image, December 2016
Brand analysis
Walkers has the strongest image: seen to be both trustworthy and innovative
Figure 37: User profile of Walkers, December 2016
Pringles benefits from a fun and vibrant image
Figure 38: User profile of Pringles, December 2016
Doritos is seen as fun, vibrant and diverse
Figure 39: User profile of Doritos, December 2016
McCoy’s is seen widely as accessible and delicious
Figure 40: User profile of McCoy’s, December 2016
Butterkist is associated with indulgence
Figure 41: User profile of Butterkist, December 2016
Peperami is held back by an unappealing image
Figure 42: User profile of Peperami, December 2016
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
93% eat crisps/crisp-style snacks
52% eat nuts
Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
42% are limiting their intake
Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
Promotions provide an excuse to purchase
USAGE OF CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS
93% eat crisp/crisp-style snack
Figure 43: Usage of crisps and crisp-style snacks, by type, October 2016
Crisp users are conservative in their repertoire
Figure 44: Repertoire of crisps and crisp-style snacks eaten, October 2016
52% eat nuts
Figure 45: Usage of nuts and other snacks, by type, October 2016
Popcorn remains most popular among the young
Figure 46: Usage of any popcorn, by age, October 2016
Women less likely to eat meat snacks
Users have a small repertoire of nuts and other snacks
Figure 47: Repertoire of nuts and other savoury snacks eaten, October 2016
More than two in three eat crisps/crisp-style snacks and nuts once a week or more
Figure 48: Frequency of eating crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts or popcorn, October 2016
FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE
Favourite flavour and brand are top factors when buying crisps for oneself
Brand loyalty bodes well for extensions
Health and naturalness matter more when buying for self
Figure 49: Factors influencing choice when buying crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
Promotions provide an incentive to both solo and sharing occasions
Cautious spending ahead, little interest in premium ingredients
Sharing occasions prompt NPD in pack formats
BEHAVIOURS RELATED TO CRISPS/CRISP-STYLE SNACKS
Ongoing opportunities for brand extensions
Figure 50: Behaviours related to crisps/crisp-style snacks, October 2016
42% are limiting their intake
42% prefer premium variants
ATTITUDES TOWARDS CRISPS, SAVOURY SNACKS AND NUTS 
Energy proposition of nuts is a positive
Figure 51: Attitudes towards crisps/crisp-style snacks, nuts and savoury snacks, October 2016
Promotions provide an excuse to purchase
Offering control through smaller portions and resealable packaging
Packaging formats can help users feel in control
Less but better
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Abbreviations
Forecast methodology
Consumer research methodology
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the other savoury snacks* market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the other savoury snacks* market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 56: Forecast of UK volume sales of other savoury snacks*, 2011-21
Figure 57: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the crisps market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 58: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the crisps market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 59: Forecast of UK volume sales of crisps, 2011-21
Figure 60: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the nuts market, by value, 2016-21
Figure 61: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the nuts market, by volume, 2016-21
Figure 62: Forecast of UK volume sales of nuts, 2011-21
APPENDIX – MARKET DRIVERS
Figure 63: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2011-21
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 64: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK potato-based and other snacks market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 65: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK crisps market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 66: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK baked snacks and popcorn market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Figure 67: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK nuts market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
APPENDIX – LAUNCH ACTIVITY AND INNOVATION
Figure 68: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by top 10 companies, 2012-16
Figure 69: Share of new product launches within the UK crisps, savoury snacks and nuts market, by top 10 flavour components, 2012-16