Grocery Retailing: Brand vs Own-label - Ireland - December 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Issues covered in this Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Estimated own-label grocery retail sales vs. branded sales, NI and RoI, 2016
Forecast
Figure 2: Indexed estimated total grocery retail sales, own-label vs branded, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
Market factors
Brexit expected to impact grocery retailing in 2017
Food inflation persists in 2016
Scope for growth of established multiples
Cross-border shopping expected to increase in NI
New entrants to online retailing
Companies and brands
The consumer
Most consumers in IoI are wholly responsible for grocery shop
Figure 3: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in their household, NI and RoI, November 2016
Irish consumers favour in-store grocery shopping
Figure 4: How consumers do their main grocery shop, NI and RoI, November 2016
Tesco leads grocery retailing in NI
Figure 5: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with (in-store), NI, November 2016
Tesco dominates RoI market for main grocery shopping, with discounters close behind
Figure 6: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with (in-store), RoI, November 2016
Lidl and Spar are preferred for top-up shopping
Figure 7: Stores that consumers do their top-up grocery shopping with (in-store), NI, November 2016
Lidl is also the main top-up store in RoI
Figure 8: Stores that consumers do their top-up grocery shopping with (in-store), RoI, November 2016
Irish consumers show strong preference for branded tea/coffee and alcohol
Figure 9: Grocery products that consumers would typically buy, branded and own label, NI, November 2016
Figure 10: Grocery products that consumers would typically buy, branded and own label, RoI, November 2016
Special offers entice Irish consumers to buy own-label
Figure 11: Factors (other than price) that are likely to encourage consumers to buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, NI and RoI, November 2016
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS 
Where are Irish consumers doing their grocery shopping?
The facts
The implications
How much are Irish consumers spending on groceries?
The facts
The implications
How is the own-label and branded market expected to perform in 2017?
The facts
The implications
What are the key factors enticing Irish consumers to buy own-label instead of branded?
The facts
The implications
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Grocery sales estimated to fall to €14.1 billion in 2016
Brexit expected to impact grocery retailing in 2017
Inflation continues in 2016
Average spend signals a return to ‘the big shop’
Multiples show signs of recovery
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST 
Grocery sales value improves in RoI, falls by 10.4% in NI
Figure 12: Estimated total grocery retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
Own-label sales continue to improve
Figure 13: Estimated own-label grocery retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
Figure 14: Estimated own-label grocery retail sales vs. branded sales, NI and RoI, 2016
Branded grocery sales
Figure 15: Estimated branded grocery retail sales, IoI, NI and RoI, 2011-21
MARKET DRIVERS 
Food price deflation persists in 2016
Figure 16: Consumer price index vs food inflation, UK (including NI), 2011-16
Figure 17: Consumer price index vs food inflation, RoI, 2011-16
Brexit expected to impact grocery retailing in 2017
Figure 18: Consumer sentiment index, NI, Q1 2012-Q3 2016
Figure 19: Consumer confidence index, RoI, Oct 2015-Sept 2016
Figure 20: If consumers feel that the UK/NI leaving the EU will have a positive or negative effect on the cost of living, NI and RoI, August 2016
Multiples regain growth
Cross-border shopping expected to increase
Figure 21: exchange rate of sterling (£) vs euro (€), 2011-16
Aldi’s move into the online channel could boost competition
Figure 22: How consumers do their main grocery shop, NI and RoI, November 2016
Average spend £61-100 in NI and €90-104 in RoI
Figure 23: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, NI, November 2016
Figure 24: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, RoI, November 2016
Irish consumers expect to spend more on groceries this Christmas
COMPANIES AND BRANDS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Aldi invests in own-label range
Tesco Farm brands prove popular
Dunnes set to launch online grocery service
Prepared meals dominates own-label market
Retailers tap into growing demand for European Food
M&S targets health conscious consumers
WHO’S INNOVATING? 
Prepared meals category dominates own-label launches
Figure 25: Own-label launches of food and drink, UK and Ireland, December 2011- 2016
Cakes pastries and sweet goods
Premium own-label experiences growth
Figure 26: Share of own-label launches, by claim, UK and Ireland, November 2016
M&S targets health conscious consumers
COMPETITIVE STRATEGIES 
Asda
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest developments
Aldi
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest development
Lidl
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest developments
Sainsbury’s
Key facts
Competitive strategies
Latest developments
Marks and Spencer
Key facts
Competitive Strategy
Latest developments
Tesco
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest developments
Supervalu
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest developments
Dunnes
Key facts
Competitive strategy
Latest developments
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Irish women are primary grocery shoppers
Irish consumers favour online shopping
Tesco dominates RoI market with discounters not far behind
Lidl is the top-up store of choice
Special offers entice consumers to buy own-label over branded
Coupons appeal to parents
WHO SHOPS FOR GROCERIES?
Most consumers in IoI are wholly responsible for main grocery shop
Figure 27: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in in their household, NI and RoI, November 2016
Irish women are primary grocery shoppers
Figure 28: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in in their household, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2016
Younger Millennials less inclined to be in-charge of groceries.
Figure 29: Who is responsible for the main grocery shop in their household, by age, NI and RoI, November 2016
HOW DO IRISH CONSUMERS SHOP? 
Irish consumers favour in-store grocery shopping
Figure 30: how consumers do their main grocery shop, NI and RoI, November 2016
NI women more likely to shop online
Figure 31: Consumers who shop for groceries online, by gender and age, UK and Ireland, November 2016
Convenience of online retailing appeals to parents
Figure 32: Consumers who purchase groceries online, by presence of children, NI and RoI, November 2016
WHERE DO IRISH CONSUMERS DO THEIR MAIN GROCERY SHOP 
Tesco leads grocery retailing in NI
Figure 33: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with (in-store), NI, November 2016
ABC1 consumers favour Tesco
Figure 34: Consumers who have visited Tesco, Asda and Sainsbury’s for their main grocery shop, by gender and social status, NI, November 2016
Tesco dominates RoI market with discounters not far behind
Figure 35: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with (in-store), RoI, November 2016
Older Millennials grocery shop at Tesco
Figure 36: Consumers who have visited Tesco, Aldi and Lidl for their main grocery shop, by age, RoI, November 2016
WHERE DO IRISH CONSUMERS DO THEIR TOP-UP SHOPPING 
Lidl and Spar are most used for top-up shopping in NI
Figure 37: Stores that consumers do their top-up grocery shopping with (in-store), NI, November 2016
NI Gen-Xers favour Spar for top-up shopping
Figure 38: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with (in-store), by gender, age and social class, NI, November 2016
Lidl is also main top-up shop in RoI
Figure 39: Stores that consumers do their top-up grocery shopping with (in-store), RoI, November 2016
USAGE OF BRANDED AND OWN-LABEL GROCERY PRODUCTS 
Irish consumers favour branded
Figure 40: Grocery products that consumers would typically buy, by branded and own-label, NI and RoI, November 2016
NI consumers show strong preference for branded treats
RoI consumers buy own-label dairy products
Figure 41: Consumers who typically buy own-label dairy, RoI, November 2016
Irish consumers buy own-label fruit and vegetables
Figure 42: Consumers who typically buy own-label fruit and vegetables, by presence of children, NI and RoI, November 2016
Irish consumers buy branded bread and baked goods
Figure 43: Consumers who typically by branded bread and baked goods, by gender, age and social class, NI and RoI, November 2016
Consumers in full-time work opt for branded alcohol
Figure 44: Consumers who buy branded beer/cider, by work status and social class, NI and RoI, November 2016
FACTORS THAT ENCOURAGE CONSUMERS TO BUY OWN-LABEL INSTEAD OF BRANDED 
Special offers entice Irish consumers to buy own-label
Figure 45: Factors (other than price) that are likely to encourage consumers to buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, NI and RoI, November 2016
Special offers appeal most to students
Figure 46: Consumers who agree that a special offer would encourage them to buy own-label instead of branded, by work status, NI and RoI, November 2016
Taste encourages Irish women to buy own-label
Figure 47: Consumers who say they would be encouraged to buy own-label if it had a better taste than branded, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2016
Coupons appeal to parents
Figure 48: Consumers who say they would be encouraged to buy own-label instead of branded if they had a coupon for own-label for own-label products, by presence of children, NI and RoI, November 2016
Locally sourced bodes well with boomers
Figure 49: consumers who would be encouraged to buy own-label instead of branded if the own-label product was guaranteed to be locally sourced, NI and RoI, November 2016
Brand familiarity is important to male consumers
Figure 50: Consumers who would be encouraged to buy own-label instead of branded if they have used it for years, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES, ABBREVIATIONS AND SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Data sources
Generational cohort definitions
Abbreviations
APPENDIX
NI Toluna data
Figure 51: Who is responsible for grocery retailing in a household, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 52: How consumers do their main grocery shop, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 53: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 54: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 55: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 56: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 57: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 58: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 59: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 60: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 61: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 62: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying fresh fruits and vegetables, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 63: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying bread and baked goods (pre-packaged), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 64: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying meat, fish or poultry goods, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 65: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying dairy (eg milk, butter, cheese, etc), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 66: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying frozen foods (eg chips, pizza), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 67: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying ready meals (chilled or frozen), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 68: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying Tinned/jars of goods (eg baked beans), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 69: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying crisps and nut snacks, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 70: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying sweets and confectionary, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 71: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying cereals, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 72: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying biscuits, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 73: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying cupboard staples (eg sugar, flour), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 74: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying soft drinks/juices, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 75: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when beer/cider, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 76: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when wine, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 77: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when spirits, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 78: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying tea/coffee, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 79: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying bottled water, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 80: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying personal care items (eg toilet roll, nappies, etc), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 81: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying over the counter medicines and vitamins/supplements (eg paracetamol, vitamin C), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 82: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying household cleaning (eg washing detergent, surface cleaner, toilet cleaner), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 83: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying other product(s), by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 84: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, NI, November 2016
Figure 85: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 86: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, NI, November 2016 (continued)
RoI Toluna data
Figure 87: Who is responsible for grocery retailing in a household, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 88: How consumers do their main grocery shop, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 89: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 90: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 91: Stores that consumers do their main grocery shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 92: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 93: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 94: Stores that consumers do their top-up shopping with, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 95: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 96: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 97: Average amount that consumers spend each week for household groceries, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 98: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying fresh fruits and vegetables, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 99: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying bread and baked goods (pre-packaged), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 100: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying meat, fish or poultry goods, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 101: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying dairy (eg milk, butter, cheese, etc), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 102: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying frozen foods (eg chips, pizza), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 103: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying ready meals (chilled or frozen), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 104: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying tinned/jars of goods (eg baked beans), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 105: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying crisps and nut snacks, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 106: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying sweets and confectionary, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 107: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying cereals, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 108: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying biscuits, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 109: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying cupboard staples (eg sugar, flour), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 110: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying soft drinks/juices, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 111: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when beer/cider, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 112: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when wine, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 113: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when spirits, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 114: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying tea/coffee, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 115: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying bottled water, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 116: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying personal care items (eg toilet roll, nappies, etc), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 117: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying over the counter medicines and vitamins/supplements (eg paracetamol, vitamin C), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 118: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying household cleaning (eg washing detergent, surface cleaner, toilet cleaner), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 119: If consumers prefer branded or own-label variants when buying other product(s), by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 120: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, RoI, November 2016
Figure 121: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)
Figure 122: Excluding price, factors that would make consumers buy an own-label product instead of a branded product, by demographics, RoI, November 2016 (continued)