Juice - Canada - November 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
Formats included in consumer data juice definition:
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The issues
Juice sales continue to soften at retail
Figure 1: Retail Canadian volume sales and forecast of pure juice, juice drinks and nectars market, 2011-15
Sugar remains barrier to consumption
Figure 2: Attitudes towards juice around sugar, September 2016
Aging population proves a challenge for the juice category
Figure 3: Juice usage, over-65s vs overall population, September 2016
The opportunities
Cold-pressed represents a fledgling opportunity to bolster juice’s health bona fides
Figure 4: Interest in cold-pressed juice, by gender and age group, September 2016
Expanding beyond breakfast can bolster penetration
Figure 5: Percentage of consumers who agree “smoothies make for a good meal replacement”, by age, September 2016
New flavours and format infuse excitement into category
Figure 6: Interest in juice with internationally-inspired flavours, by age, September 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Long-term category softness expected to continue
Focus on health and weight management to continue
Canada’s aging population represents a challenge for the juice category
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Long-term market softness expected to continue
Figure 7: Retail Canadian value sales and forecast of pure juice, juice drinks and nectars market, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 8: Retail Canadian volume sales and forecast of pure juice, juice drinks and nectars market, at current prices, 2011-21
Figure 9: Retail Canadian sales and forecast of pure juice, juice drinks and nectars market, at current prices, 2011-21
MARKET FACTORS 
Focus on health and weight management to continue
Figure 10: Body mass index, self-reported rate of being overweight or obese among Canadian adults, by gender, 2010-14
Canadians are increasingly time-pressed
Canada’s aging population represents challenge for juice industry
Figure 11: Population aged 65 years and over in Canada, historical and projected (% of total), 1971-2061
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
All-natural positioning resonates with Canadian juice consumers
Cold-pressed juice represents an opportunity to meet demand for natural and healthful offerings
Juice category challenged by concern around sugar
WHAT’S HOT?
All-natural positioning resonates with Canadian juice consumers
Figure 12: Ceres 100% Guava and Litchi Juice (Canada), September 2016
Consumers’ thirst for smoothies continues
WHAT’S NOT?
Juice category challenged by concern around sugar
Aging population fans headwinds for juice category
WHAT’S NEXT?
Cold-pressed juice represents an opportunity to meet demand for natural and healthful offerings
Figure 13: Top flavour components in cold-pressed juice, 2016 YTD (November)
Opportunity to leverage superfoods to boost functionality
Figure 14: Green Panda Superfood Chia Drink with Apple & Elder (Austria), November 2016
Figure 15: Sambazon Acai Berry, Kale + Ginger Superfood Smoothie (USA), July 2016
Figure 16: Columbia Gorge Organic Vitatrition VitaSea Superfoods Sea Algae Fruit Puree & Juice Blend (USA), January 2016
Figure 17: Raw Pressery Lean Cold-pressed Spirulina, Kiwi, Kale, Cucumber, Green Apple and Mint Juice (India), January 2016
Expanding flavour selection is a means to connect with younger consumers
Figure 18: Top growing juice flavour components globally, 2015 vs 2014
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW 
Sugar in juice a concern for a third of consumers
Young men are core juice drinkers
Young women most likely to turn to smoothies as meal replacements
A quarter of Canadians cite interest in cold-pressed juice
BARRIERS TO JUICE CONSUMPTION
Sugar in juice a concern for a third of consumers
Figure 19: Attitudes towards juice, by gender, September 2016
A quarter of consumers don’t trust all-natural claims on juice
Price is a deterrent for a minority of consumers
Figure 20: Low price as a factor when choosing one juice over another, September 2016
Figure 21: Juice unit value in local currency, 2010-15
A third of parents concerned about serving juice to kids
Figure 22: Welch’s Premium Juice Ice Bars, (Canada), August 2015
JUICE CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOUR
Chilled carton/bottle juice is the most popular format
Figure 23: Juice formats at any occasion, September 2016
Young men are core juice drinkers
Figure 24: Chilled carton/bottled juice consumption, by age, September 2016
Figure 25: Juice formats at any occasion, by gender, September 2016
Opportunity exists for flavour expansion among Canadians
Figure 26: Top juice flavours (any rank), September 2016
Figure 27: Top juice flavours have not drunk but interested in trying, September 2016
Juice is most commonly consumed at breakfast
Figure 28: Lidl Solevita Relaxing Juice with Melatonin (Spain), August 2016
Figure 29: Format of juice consumed, by daypart, September 2016
WHAT MATTERS TO CANADIANS WHEN CHOOSING JUICES
Young women most likely to turn to smoothies to replace meals
Figure 30: Percentage of consumers who agree smoothies make a good meal replacement, September 2016
Winning against health and functionality
Figure 31: Factors that are important when choosing juice, September 2016
Figure 32: Welch’s Blueberry Cherry Smoothie Kit (Canada), January 2015
Figure 33: Welch’s Fruit and Veggie Green Supreme Smoothie Kit (Canada), January 2015
A quarter of Canadians cite interest in cold-pressed juice
Figure 34: Interest in drinking gold-pressed juice, by gender and age, September 2016
Figure 35: Bolthouse Farms 1915 apple, romaine, cucumber, spinach, kale, lemon 100% fruit & vegetable juice blend (Canada), July 2016 & The Pulp & Press Juice Co. Hulk Cold-pressed Fruit & vegetable Juice, November 2016
Opportunity for juice to leverage tea’s health bona fides
Figure 36: Purity Organic Brewed Mate Tea with Grapefruit and Ginger and Brewed Guayusa Tea with Pomegranate and Peach (USA), November 2016
A fifth of Canadian adults are interested in ‘adult’ juice pre-mixes
Figure 37: Interest in pre-mixed juices with alcohol, by age and gender, September 2016
CONSUMER GROUPS
Juice usage higher among parents
Figure 38: Juice usage by format, parents vs non-parents, September 2016
Chinese Canadians show lower demand for low sugar options
Juice sales challenged on both sides of the border
Figure 39: Retail market size, volume – Canada vs US, 2011-15
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations