Solar Panels - UK - September 2016

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
UK Solar PV capacity reaches almost 11GW in mid-2016, but deployment drops in first half of 2016 following government subsidy reset
Figure 1: Development of Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-16
Uptake of solar PV in residential sector plummets in 2016 following FIT cuts
Figure 2: Residential Photovoltaic Capacity Installed in the UK, 201015
RO supported ground-mounted installed capacity reaches 5.2 GW in mid-2016
Commercial roof-top sector shows strong growth potential, but more supportive government policies are required to enable meaningful development
Industry needs to prepare for future without government financial support
Figure 3: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2016-20
Market factors
Companies
What we think
KEY INSIGHTS
What is the potential impact of Brexit on the UK’s renewable energy policy and the solar PV sector?
How can solar companies survive these turbulent times following the latest government policy reset?
With cost-efficient energy storage solutions seen as the ‘holy grail’ of the solar PV market, what are the current market and technological developments in that area?
INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
Market positioning
UK ECONOMY
Overview
Figure 4: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
Figure 5: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2004-2016
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
Business investment
Figure 8: UK GFCF 2003-16
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS
Key points
Government policy
Renewable energy and climate change policies
Brexit vote raises uncertainties for renewables industry, although government remains committed to tackling climate change
Government slashes financial support as costs of solar PV are coming down, resulting in contraction of industry
Renewable Energy Obligation (RO) and Contracts for Differences (CFDs)
Feed-in tariff
Solar PV industry hit by further drastic FIT cuts in February 2016
Figure 9: UK Feed in Tariff Levels, July 2016-September 2016
PV prices
The UK climate
Other factors
MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS
Key points
The renewable context
Figure 10: Analysis of electricity supplied in the UK, by type of fuel used in generation,  2010-15
Figure 11: UK Renewable Penetration of Electricity Supply, 2011-15
Figure 12: Renewable electricity generation in the UK,  2010-15
Figure 13: UK Renewable energy market shares, 2011 and 2015
The photovoltaic market to 2016
Introduction
The market
Figure 14: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-16
Figure 15: Development of Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, 2010-2016
Market segmentation
Introduction
Figure 16: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by capacity of installation, 2010-16
Figure 17: Photovoltaic Installations in the UK, by accreditation scheme 2010-16
Figure 18: Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in the UK, by size, as of July 2016
Residential
Frequent changes to FITs result in boom-bust cycle in residential solar PV sector
‘Free solar’ versus paid-for installations
Focus to shift to new build?
UK Housing Stock
Figure 19: Residential Dwelling Stock in the UK, by type, 2009-14
Figure 20: Residential Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
Building mounted
Number of non-domestic rateable properties
Figure 21: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by sector and region, as at 31 March 2015
Figure 22: Number of non-domestic rateable properties in England & Wales, by property type, as at 31 March 2015
Building-mounted PV installations
Figure 23: Building Mounted Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
Figure 24: Building Mounted Photovoltaic Installed Capacity  in the UK, by size, mid 2016
Commercial roof-top sector still offers huge growth potential despite subsidy cuts
Ground mounted
7GW installed capacity across 843 solar farms operational
Short-term growth potential for large-scale solar driven by 1.2ROC projects
Controversy surrounding large-scale solar
Ground-mounted solar PV installations
Figure 25: Ground Mounted and Large Scale Photovoltaic Installation Capacity Installed in the UK, 2010-16
Community installations
New business models starting to emerging
Figure 26: Number of community FIT energy installations, Q2 2013 - Q2 2016
Seasonal market trends
Figure 27: Quarterly Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Type of Installation, Q1 2010-Q2 2016
Regional development
Figure 28: Household Penetration of Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Region, 2014-16,
Figure 29: Regional Distribution of Photovoltaic Installations in Great Britain, By Type and Region, cumulative as of Q2 2016
The European/world context
Figure 30: World, EU and UK Cumulative Photovoltaic Installations, 2010-15
Figure 31: World Development of Photovoltaic Installations, 2010-15
ELECTRICITY USAGE
Key points
Introduction
Figure 32: UK Final Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 33: UK Total Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1970-15
Figure 34: UK Usage of Energy, 2015
Industrial
Figure 35: UK Industrial Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 36: UK Industrial Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1990-15
Figure 37: UK Industrial Electricity Consumption, by Sector, 2000-15
Figure 38: UK Industrial Electricity Consumption, by Sector, 2015
Transport
Figure 39: UK Transport Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 40: UK Transport Energy Consumption, by Sector, 1970-15
Domestic
Figure 41: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 42: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, 1970-15
Figure 43: UK Domestic Energy Consumption Efficiency, 1970-15
Figure 44: UK Domestic Energy Consumption, by Activity, 1990-13
Figure 45: UK Household Electricity Usage on Domestic Appliances, 1970-15
Commerce/Services
Figure 46: UK Commercial and Services Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 47: UK Public Administration Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 1970-15
Figure 48: UK Commercial Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2011-15
Figure 49: UK Agricultural Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2010-15
Figure 50: UK Miscellaneous Energy Consumption, by Type of Fuel, 2010-15
Figure 51: Detailed Service Sector Energy Consumption, by Activity and Type of Use, 2015
Figure 52: Detailed Service Sector Electricity Consumption, by Activity and Type of Use, 2015
COMPANY PROFILES
Key points
Company profiles
A SHADE GREENER
Company Strategy and Outlook
Figure 53: Financial Analysis of A Shade Greener, 2011-15
BRITISH SOLAR RENEWABLES
Company Review & Outlook
Figure 54: Financial analysis of British Solar Renewables, 2011-15
CONERGY
Company strategy and outlook
Figure 55: Financial analysis of Conergy UK, 2012-15
EVOENERGY
Company review & strategy
Figure 56: Financial analysis of EvoEnergy, 2011-15
GOOD ENERGY GROUP
Company strategy
Figure 57: Financial analysis of Good Energy Group, 2011-15
Figure 58: Turnover analysis of Good Energy Group, by segment, 2012-15
LCX SOLAR
Figure 59: Financial analysis of LCX Solar, 2012-14
ELIOS RENEWABLE ENERGY (FORMERLY LIGHTSOURCE RENEWABLE ENERGY)
Company performance and outlook
Figure 60: Financial analysis of Elios Renewable Energy, 2012-15
PV CRYSTALOX SOLAR
Company review and outlook
Figure 61: Financial Analysis of PV Crystalox Solar, 2011-15
MARTIFER SOLAR
UK market outlook
Figure 62: Financial Analysis of Martifer Solar UK, 2012-14
SOLAR CENTURY
Company review and outlook
Figure 63: Financial Analysis of Solar Century Holdings, 2012-16
FORECAST
Key points
Overview
Government Policy
STA publishes FIT reform proposals for rooftop solar
Rise in business rates threatens economic viability of commercial rooftop PV
Market trends and drivers
Installers need to diversify and become ‘smart contractors’ to drive future business post FIT
Installers are diversifying into new technologies and markets
Energy storage seen as “holy grail” of solar PV sector
Largely untapped commercial sector to provide strongest growth potential for solar PV deployment
In 2016, Lightsource has already reported some PPA success -
New London mayor pledges to support rooftop solar across capital
Utility sector also offers opportunities for solar firms
The Market 2016-2020
Figure 64: Forecast Photovoltaic Installed Capacity in the UK, 2016-20
Figure 65: Forecast new photovoltaic capacity installed in the UK, 2016-20
FURTHER SOURCES & CONTACTS
Trade Associations & Regulatory Bodies
Trade Exhibitions