Non-dairy Milk - US - April 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Majority of non-dairy milk consumers drink dairy milk
Figure 1: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Soy milk continues to lose ground
Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Room for more frequent consumption
Figure 3: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
The opportunities
Accentuate natural qualities
Figure 4: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
Emphasize taste, health benefits
Figure 5: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
New opportunities with functionality
Figure 6: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
Dairy milk category sees declines
Health, media attention drive non-dairy milk growth
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
Almond milk
Soy milk
Coconut milk
Other non-dairy milk
Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
“Other” non-dairy milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, by percentage change, at current prices, 2010-20
All channels experience sales gains from 2013-15
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Natural channel non-dairy milk sales grow
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013 to Nov. 29, 2015
Almond milk leading segment at natural channels
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Dairy milk category sees declines
Figure 15: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Vast majority of non-dairy drinkers consume dairy milk
Figure 18: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
MARKET FACTORS
Non-dairy milk’s healthful image challenged in the media
Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
Millennial population has positive growth
Figure 20: Population by generation, 2011-21
Hispanic population growing
Figure 21: Population by Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
Millennials as parents
Figure 22: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
Hispanics as parents
Figure 23: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Hispanics as Millennials
Figure 24: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
Almond, coconut, “other” milks see success at MULO channels
Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
Non-dairy milks see flavor, function innovation
MANUFACTURER SALES OF NON-DAIRY MILK
Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Manufacturer sales of non-dairy milk
Figure 26: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Almond milks’ popularity continues at MULO channels
Coconut milk sees MULO sales gains across leading companies, brands
“Other” non-dairy milks experience stellar growth
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
WHAT’S NEXT?
New non-dairy milks and blends offer flavor, health opportunities
Room for more functionality
Global innovation features new flavors, forms
Non-dairy milk + fruit
Seasonal, sophisticated, and unique flavors
Cold-pressed
Smoothie potential in the non-dairy milk space
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Consumers drink many different types of non-dairy milks
Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
Majority of adults drink non-dairy milk
54% of children drink non-dairy milk
Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk, followed by health
Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
Many consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
CROSS-CONSUMPTION OF NON-DAIRY MILKS
Consumers drink multiple non-dairy milks types
Figure 27: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption of soy/almond/cashew/coconut milks, January 2016
Non-dairy milk consumption on the rise at home, at foodservice
Figure 28: Beverage Tracker – Non-dairy milk consumption, June 2014 to September 2015
CROSS-CONSUMPTION OF NON-DAIRY AND DAIRY MILK
Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
Figure 29: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Figure 30: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of soy milk/almond milk/rice milk/oat milk/cashew milk/coconut milk, January 2016
Figure 31: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of flax seed milk/hemp milk/hazelnut milk/quinoa milk/sunflower milk/other nut milks, January 2016
CORE CONSUMERS – ADULT CONSUMPTION
58% of adults drink non-dairy milk
Figure 32: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
Older Millennials heaviest non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by Millennial generation, January 2016
Figure 34: Any non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender and age, January 2016
Parents more likely to drink non-dairy milk than non-parents
Figure 35: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
Hispanics active non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 36: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
CORE CONSUMERS – CHILD(REN) CONSUMPTION
54% of children drink non-dairy milk
Figure 37: Non-dairy milk consumption – Child(ren) consumption, January 2016
CONSUMPTION FREQUENCY
Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
Figure 38: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
Older Millennials frequent non-dairy milk drinkers
Figure 39: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by generation, January 2016
Figure 40: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by parental status, January 2016
Opportunity to increase Blacks’ non-dairy milk consumption
Figure 41: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
CONSUMPTION HABITS
Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
Figure 42: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
Figure 43: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, by generation, January 2016
Highlighting functional attributes of non-dairy milk through occasion
Figure 44: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, January 2016
Figure 45: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, by generation, January 2016
PREFERRED ATTRIBUTES
Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
Figure 46: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
Older Millennials look for natural, organic, flavored non-dairy milks
Figure 47: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, by generation, January 2016
ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS TOWARD NON-DAIRY MILK
Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
Figure 48: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
Millennials drink non-dairy milk outside the home, make at home
Figure 49: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, by generation, January 2016
REASONS FOR CONSUMING
Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk
Figure 50: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
Younger Millennials least likely to drink non-dairy milk for health reasons
Figure 51: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
Parents drink non-dairy milk for their health
Figure 52: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
Opportunities for greater nutritional, flavor awareness with Hispanics
Figure 53: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
NON-DAIRY MILK INNOVATION
Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
Figure 54: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
Older Millennials seek non-dairy milk innovation
Figure 55: Non-dairy milk innovation, by generation, January 2016
MILK PERCEPTIONS
Consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
Figure 56: Milk perceptions, January 2016
Consumers in their own words
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 67: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 68: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 69: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 70: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015