Disposable Baby Products - US - April 2016

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Disposable baby product sales rebound in 2014 and 2015
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
Parents seek cost savings when possible
Figure 2: Cost-savings attitudes toward disposable diapers, November 2015
While birth rates are increasing, they are still behind 2007 highs
Figure 3: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
The opportunities
Find ways to engage Hispanic parents
Figure 4: Interest in disposable baby product innovations – interested in and willing to pay more for, by Hispanic origin, November 2015
Broaden usage occasions for wipes and personal care products
Figure 5: Usage habits for disposable wipes and baby personal care, November 2015
Product innovations, health and wellness benefits may increase consumer spend
Figure 6: Interest is disposable baby product innovations, November 2015
What it means
THE MARKET - WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Disposable baby product sales rebound
Market growth driven by strong disposable diaper sales
Green movement tempers growth, emotional parenting presents opportunities
Stabilizing birth rates bode well for market, though numbers still behind 2007
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Disposable baby product sales rebound
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Disposable diapers largest segment, all segments experience growth
Figure 9: Share of disposable baby products sales, by segment, 2015 (est.)
Figure 10: Sales of disposable baby products, by segment, 2010-2015(est.)
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
The green movement challenges disposable baby product sales
Figure 11: Trial of reusable/cloth diapers, by Hispanic origin, age, and household income of parent, November 2015
Online purchasing a threat to brick-and-mortar retailers
Parents shop differently based on segment, “gentle” a common theme
Figure 12: Claims made in new disposable diapers and baby wipes product launches, by percentage of products making claim, February 2015-January 2016
Diaper-changing challenges differ by child’s age – added struggles for dads
In their words
Emotions run high when caring for babies
Figure 13: Pampers, “A newborn journey of firsts,” television ad, 2015
MARKET FACTORS
Rebounding birth and fertility rates drive market growth
Figure 14: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
Average age of moms increases
Figure 15: US birth rates, by age of mother, 1990-2014
Growth tempered by Hispanics, who are less invested in disposable baby products
Figure 16: Annual births and fertility rates, by race and Hispanic origin of mother, 2003-14
More confident consumers can lead to higher spend on premium products
Figure 17: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2010-November 2015
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Market dominated by P&G and Kimberly-Clark, P&G steals share
Pampers sales surge, adult and natural offerings boost personal care segment
Private label loses steam, fewer personal care items being used
Premium benefits, alternate formats capitalize on consumer confidence
MANUFACTURER SALES OF DISPOSABLE BABY PRODUCTS
Market dominated by P&G and Kimberly-Clark, P&G steals share
Manufacturer sales of disposable baby products
Figure 18: Manufacturer sales of disposable baby products, 2014-15
WHAT’S WORKING?
Robust marketing campaign helps Pampers reach parents
Figure 19: Pampers Swaddlers – trust commercial, July 2015
Figure 20: Pampers – How to prepare for a newborn baby – Essential tips, March 2013
Figure 21: MULO sales of select Pampers and Goodnites products, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
Sensitive, gentle claims stand out in wipes segment
Figure 22: MULO sales of select sensitive/gentle baby wipes, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
Natural and organic brands capitalize on concerns over ingredients
Figure 23: MULO sales of select natural and organic baby products, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
Adult personal care brands capitalize on consumer trust
Figure 24: MULO sales of select baby care products from adult brands, rolling 52-weeks ending Dec. 27, 2015
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Private label loses steam as parents seek branded options
Figure 25: MULO sales of select private label disposable baby products, 2012-15
In their words
Disposable training pants have yet to be impacted by higher birth rates
Figure 26: MULO sales of select disposable training pants, 2012-15
Parents use fewer personal care products on babies, tempering segment growth
Figure 27: MULO sales of select baby personal care segments, 2012-15
WHAT’S NEXT?
Premium benefits set products apart
Alternate formats, products that simplify childcare routines resonate with parents
Technology impacts retail landscape as well as product launches
Environmentally friendly diaper options compete with cloth diapers
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Younger adults, multicultural parents more eager to start potty-training
Moms, younger parents drive disposable baby product purchases
Most purchases made at mass merchandisers, online making an impact
Focus on cost-savings tempers disposable diaper sales
Disposable wipes being used away from the changing table
Baby personal care routines reveal both challenges and opportunities
Health and wellness benefits, products that simplify routines could increase spend
POTTY-TRAINING AGES
Younger parents more eager to potty-train
Figure 28: Age child was potty-trained or parents plan to potty-train – youngest child, by age of parent, November 2015
Black, Hispanic parents potty-train younger
Figure 29: Age child was potty-trained or parents plan to potty-train – youngest child, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
In their words
PRODUCT PURCHASES
Household usage of staples widespread
Figure 30: Usage of disposable baby products, November 2015
Moms drive household baby product purchases
Figure 31: Usage of select disposable baby products, by gender of parent, November 2015
Younger parents more invested in market
Figure 32: Usage of select disposable baby products, by age of parent, November 2015
Hispanics make fewer baby specific purchases
Figure 33: Usage of disposable baby products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
PURCHASE LOCATIONS
Parents, especially moms, rely on mass merchandisers for purchases
Figure 34: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by gender of parent, November 2015
Online sales making an impact
Higher-income households more likely to shop specialty
Figure 35: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by household incomes of <$25K and $150K+, November 2015
Hispanics purchase from wider variety of stores
Figure 36: Purchase locations of disposable baby products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
PURCHASE HABITS FOR DISPOSABLE DIAPERS
Parents continue to seek cost-savings, tempering segment growth
Figure 37: Purchase habits for disposable diapers, November 2015
Dads influenced by marketing, moms rely on trial and error
Figure 38: Pampers – happy father’s day commercial, June 2015
Figure 39: Select purchase habits for disposable diapers, by gender of parent, November 2015
Hispanic purchasing habits may lower diaper sales
Figure 40: Select purchase habits for disposable diapers, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
In their words
USAGE HABITS FOR BABY WIPES
Disposable wipes being used away from the changing table
Figure 41: Usage habits for disposable wipes, by gender and age of parent, November 2015
Hispanic parents less likely to use wipes for other purposes
Figure 42: Usage habits for disposable wipes, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
In their words
USAGE HABITS FOR BABY PERSONAL CARE PRODUCTS
Baby personal care routines reveal both challenges and opportunities
Figure 43: Usage habits for baby personal care products, by gender and age of parent, November 2015
Figure 44: Usage habits for baby personal care products, by race/Hispanic origin of parent, November 2015
PRODUCT INNOVATIONS
Parents willing to pay for products with wellness benefits, those that simplify routines
Figure 45: Interest is disposable baby product innovations, November 2015
Dads seek product innovations for simplification, reassurance
Figure 46: Interest in disposable baby product innovations – Any interest(net)*, by gender, November 2015
Product innovations may encourage increased spend among Hispanics
Figure 47: Interest is disposable baby product innovations – Interested in and willing to pay more for, by race/Hispanic origin November 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Consumer qualitative research
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 48: Total US sales and forecast of disposable baby products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 49: Total US retail sales and forecast of disposable baby products, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 50: Female population by age, 2011-21
Figure 51: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Figure 52: Population younger than age 6, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 53: MULO sales of disposable diapers/training pants, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 54: MULO sales of baby wipes and moist towelettes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 55: MULO sales of baby personal care products, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 56: Baby oil and baby lotion brand usage, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 57: Baby/children’s shampoo brand usage, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 58: Brands of pre-moistened wipes/cloths for babies used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 59: Disposable diaper/training pants brand usage, July 2014-September 2015