On-premise Alcohol Trends - US - May 2015

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Mintel Menu Insights
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Moderate growth forecast
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
The consumer
More likelihood to drink at home than at restaurants
Figure 2: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
Special occasions, gatherings, and drink specials motivate customers to order alcohol
Figure 3: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
Price remains a barrier for 45% of consumers
Figure 4: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
Food/drink pairings, microbrews, and drink specials are important
Figure 5: Attitudes about alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can restaurants draw Millennials?
The issues
Insight: Focus on variety, flavor, and value
How should restaurants appeal to at-home drinkers?
The issues
Insight: Exclusive selections
Can LSRs compete with FSRs for share of alcohol spending?
The issues
Insight: More alcohol offerings, better selling programs
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2009-19
Fan chart methodology
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Slowly rising disposable income drives on-premise sales
Figure 9: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-January 2015
Figure 10: US unemployment rate and underemployment, January 2007-December 2014
Median household income stagnates
Figure 11: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2003-13
Consumer confidence fluctuates
Figure 12: Consumer Confidence Index, January 2009-February 2015
Millennials most apt to drink alcohol at restaurants
Figure 13: Median household income, by age of householder, 2013
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
At-home alcohol drinking more popular than drinking at restaurants
Figure 14: Alcohol at home and away from home, 2008-13
Consumers more apt to drink alcohol at FSRs than LSRs
MENU ANALYSIS
Key points
Menu incidence of beer overtakes cocktails
Figure 15: Types of alcoholic beverages on the menu, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
Figure 16: Top 10 alcoholic beverages, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
Fast casuals find opportunity in menuing alcohol
Figure 17: Alcoholic beverages, by menu incidence, by restaurant type, PCYA Q4 2011-14
Handcrafted options help create a quality drinking experience
Figure 18: Top 10 alcoholic beverage claims, by menu incidence, PCYA Q4 2011-14
Sugar, mixes/juices mentions mostly down
Figure 19: Top 10 ingredients used in alcoholic drinks, PCYA Q4 2011-14
THE CONSUMER – OVERVIEW
Key points
Three in 10 consumers report high weekly alcohol consumption
Figure 20: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, February 2015
Figure 21: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by average weekly consumption of alcohol (by high, medium, or low), February 2015
Figure 22: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Any Rank, February 2015
Figure 23: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Any Rank, February 2015 (continued)
Figure 24: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by top five desires on alcoholic drink menus, by barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
Drinking at home means less opportunity for restaurants
Figure 25: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
Figure 26: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015
Figure 27: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, February 2015 (continued)
Figure 28: Average (mean) spend on alcohol (percentage of total check), February 2015
Special occasions drive purchase; happy hours likely to attract guests
Figure 29: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
Price is the primary barrier to ordering alcohol
Figure 30: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
Guests look for locally made, wider flight varieties, food pairings
Figure 31: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus (top five rank), February 2015
Consumers are looking for unique dining experiences
Figure 32: Attitudes about alcoholic beverages at restaurants, February 2015
THE CONSUMER – BY GENDER
Key points
Men more apt than women to be high weekly drinkers, especially beer/wine
Figure 33: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by gender, February 2015
Figure 34: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by gender, February 2015
Figure 35: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by gender, February 2015 (continued)
Men more driven by favorite brands, craft beers; women likely to order at special occasions
Figure 36: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by gender, February 2015
Figure 37: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by gender, February 2015 (continued)
Men want to see wider variety; women desire lower ABV, specialty drinks
Figure 38: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by gender, February 2015
THE CONSUMER – BY GENERATIONS
Key points
Millennials most apt to be high weekly drinkers
Figure 39: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by generations, February 2015
Figure 40: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by generations, February 2015
Figure 41: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
Millennials will spend more on alcohol than other generations
Figure 42: Average (mean) spend on alcohol, by generations, February 2015
Drink specials, restaurant brand alcohol appeals to Millennials
Figure 43: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by generations, February 2015
Figure 44: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
Unique offerings most desired by Millennials
Figure 45: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by generations, February 2015
Figure 46: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
Millennials very invested in alcohol at restaurants
Figure 47: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by generations, February 2015
Figure 48: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by generations, February 2015 (continued)
THE CONSUMER – BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
Key points
High weekly alcohol consumption increases with household income
Figure 49: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by household income, February 2015
Figure 50: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by household income, February 2015
Figure 51: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by household income, February 2015 (continued)
THE CONSUMER – BY PRESENCE OF CHILDREN IN HOUSEHOLD
Key points
Presence of children often means high alcohol consumption
Figure 52: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 53: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 54: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
Households with children spend more on alcohol when dining out
Figure 55: Average (mean) spend on alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Households without children more apt to drink at restaurants for special occasions
Figure 56: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 57: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
Parents likely to limit drinking when dining out with kids
Figure 58: Barriers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Low ABV a potential selling point for parents
Figure 59: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 60: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
Parents tend to drink when dining out with friends more than with family
Figure 61: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015
Figure 62: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by presence of children in household, February 2015 (continued)
THE CONSUMER – RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics drink more at restaurants than non-Hispanics
Figure 63: Average weekly consumption of alcohol by high, medium, or low, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
Figure 64: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
Figure 65: Where alcohol is purchased and/or consumed, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
Late night drink specials, restaurant brand alcohol drive sales to Hispanics
Figure 66: Drivers to order alcoholic beverages at restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
Unique brands and styles appeal to Hispanic drinkers
Figure 67: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
Figure 68: Top five desires on alcoholic drink menus – Top five rank, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
Value offerings likely to attract Hispanics
Figure 69: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015
Figure 70: Attitudes toward on-premise alcohol, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2015 (continued)
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
Council for Responsible Nutrition
Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
International Food Information Council (IFIC)
International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
International Franchise Association (IFA)
National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
National Restaurant Association (NRA)