Air Care - US - March 2015

OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Air care sees growth in 2015 amid recent struggles
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2010-20
Flat market penetration furthers air care market challenges
Figure 2: Percentage of households using air care, by type, July 2010-September 2015
Ingredient concerns weigh on consumers
Figure 3: Attitudes toward air care – Ingredient concerns, by 18-34 age group and Hispanics, January 2016
The opportunities
Expand claims beyond seasonality, scent
Figure 4: Share of air care product launch claims, 2011-15
Innovations provide additional usage occasions
Figure 5: Interest and willingness to spend for air care product innovations, January 2016
Engage Hispanics, who are more involved in air care
Figure 6: Air care products used in the past 12 months, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Air care finally sees growth in 2015 amid recent struggles
Most spend allocated toward candles, vehicle segment leads growth
Environmental and ingredient concerns become increasingly important
Hispanics boost air care sales, while an aging population tempers growth
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Air care sees growth in 2015 amid recent struggles
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of air care products, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Candles are largest segment, strongest gains in vehicle air fresheners
Figure 9: Total US sales of air care products, by segment, 2010-15(est.)
Drug store sales suffer the most
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of air care products by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Transparency of ingredients
Powered air fresheners becoming more popular
Figure 11: Share of air care launches, by product type, 2011-15
Focus shifting from scent-based claims to environmental claims
Figure 12: Share of air care product launch claims, 2011-15
Most formats used in the living room, sprays eliminate bathroom odors
Figure 13: Correspondence analysis of air care formats by room, January 2016
Figure 14: Air care formats by room, January 2016
MARKET FACTORS
Growing US population to benefit air care market
Figure 15: US population, by age, 2010, 2015, and 2020
Population of Hispanics to boost sales
Figure 16: US Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
Declining percentage of homes with children adds to market struggles
Figure 17: US Households, by presence of own children, 2005-15
Stabilizing incomes may encourage increased spend on air care
Figure 18: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
Declining homeownership rates challenge market
Figure 19: Repertoire of products used in the past 12 months, by primary residence, January 2016
Figure 20: Air care products used in the past 12 months, by primary residence, January 2016
An increase in Millennial car ownership boosts vehicle air care sales
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
S.C. Johnson & Son continues to lead market, smaller players see growth
Brands stand out by creating an “experience”
Consumers seek benefits beyond low price and odor elimination
New formats, luxury options provide new take on air care
MANUFACTURER SALES OF AIR CARE
S.C. Johnson & Son leads market, continues to grow
Manufacturer sales of air care
Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of air care, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
A focus on “experience” boosts Air Wick and Glade
Figure 22: MULO sales of select Glade and Air Wick products, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
Vehicle air fresheners continue to thrive
Figure 23: MULO sales of select vehicle air fresheners, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
Seasonal lines keep consumers engaged
Environmental claims elevate category
Figure 24: MULO sales of select natural air care products, rolling 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
Premium candle brands capitalize on rising incomes
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Emphasis on low price proves costly
Figure 25: MULO sales of select value air care brands, 2012-14
Focus on odor elimination leads to struggles for Febreze
Figure 26: MULO sales of select Febreze air care products, 2012-14
WHAT’S NEXT?
Air care becomes easier to use at home and on-the-go
Luxury air care gains steam as household incomes rise
Brands attract men through masculine scents, unique benefits
Cause marketing inspires limited edition lines
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Younger adults, Hispanics more engaged in air care
Different formats used in different rooms
Consumers unfamiliar with the benefits of wax melts
Younger adults more adventurous with scent selection
Ingredient concerns weigh on air care consumers
Product innovations provide opportunities to boost flat market
PRODUCT USAGE
Air care market profits from high market penetration
Figure 27: Air care products used in the past 12 months, January 2016
Figure 28: Repertoire of air care products used in the past 12 months, January 2016
Younger adults, parents more engaged in air care
Figure 29: Air care products used in the past 12 months, by ages 18-34 and 55+ and parental status, January 2016
Figure 30: Repertoire of air care products used in the past 12 months, by age and parental status, January 2016
Household income impacts formats purchased
Figure 31: Air care products used in the past 12 months, by household incomes of <$25K and $100K+, January 2016
Figure 32: Repertoire of air care products used in the past 12 months, by household income, January 2016
Hispanics purchase broader range of products
Figure 33: Air care products used in the past 12 months, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Figure 34: Repertoire of air care products used in the past 12 months, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
FORMAT PERCEPTIONS
Opportunities to improve perceptions around wax melts
Figure 35: Correspondence Analysis – Format characteristics, January 2016
Figure 36: Format characteristics, January 2016
Parents, Hispanics associate formats with a wider variety of benefits
Figure 37: Format characteristics of wax melts, by race, Hispanic origin, and parental status, January 2016
PURCHASE INFLUENCERS – SCENTS
Younger consumers more adventurous when picking a scent
Figure 38: Factors influencing choice of scent, by age, January 2016
Recommendations on scents reach Hispanic users
Figure 39: Factors influencing choice of scent, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
ATTITUDES TOWARD AIR CARE
Consumers have mixed attitudes on scent
Ingredient concerns relevant for consumers
Figure 40: Attitudes toward air care, January 2016
Younger adults see benefits in wax melts, more engaged in scents
Figure 41: Attitudes toward air care, by age and parental status, January 2016
Hispanics more aware of ingredients
Figure 42: Attitudes toward air care, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
PRODUCT INNOVATIONS
Product innovations could boost flat market sales
Figure 43: Interest and willingness to spend for air care product innovations, January 2016
Younger adults driving interest in product innovations
Figure 44: Product innovations – Interested in and willing to pay more for, by age, January 2016
Men willing to spend more for product innovations
Figure 45: Product innovations – Interested in and willing to pay more for, by gender, January 2016
Innovations present opportunities with Hispanics
Figure 46: Product innovations – Any interest^, by race/Hispanic origin, January 2016
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 47: Total US sales and forecast of air care products, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 48: Total US retail sales and forecast of air care products, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 49: Share of US sales of air care products, by segment, 2015(est.)
Figure 50: Homeownership rate, by age of householder, 2004-14
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Figure 51: MULO sales of candles, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 52: MULO sales of home air fresheners, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 53: MULO sales of vehicle air fresheners, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
Figure 54: Percentage of households using air care, by type, July 2010-September 2015
Figure 55: Brands of air fresheners used, July 2010-September 2015
Correspondence Analysis Methodology