Black Consumers and Dining Out - US - January 2015

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Calculations
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers and dining out, at current prices, 2009-19
Market drivers
Leading companies
The consumer
Attitudes toward dining out
Decision factors for choosing restaurants
Dining out dayparts
Ordering and dining behaviors
Figure 2: Ordering food at restaurants behaviors in the past month, September 2014
Types of beverages consumed at restaurants
Figure 3: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by reason for ordering, September 2014
QSR, fast casual, pizza, and food trucks
Figure 4: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Figure 5: Top 10 list of fast food, fast casual, and pizza restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Casual, family, and fine dining restaurants
Figure 6: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Source: Lightspeed GMI/Mintel
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
What can marketers do to set themselves apart from the competition?
The issues
The implications
How receptive are Black consumers to ethnic foods?
The issues
The implications
What can restaurants do to attract Black consumers? Is targeted advertising still relevant?
The issues
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Inspire Trend: Moral Brands
Inspire Trend: Life Hacking
Inspire Trend: Help Me Help Myself
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
10-year expenditures growth forecast to yield a 68% increase from 2009-19
Figure 8: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers on dining out, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 9: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers on dining out, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 10: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers and dining out, at current prices, 2009-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Black buying power grows in South as reverse migration takes place
Figure 11: Top 10 states or areas ranked by share of Black buying power, 2013
Higher population of single people, particularly moms, seek convenience and entertainment
Higher population of Millennials willing to spend a little extra cash to have fun
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW
Key points
Limited-service accounts for lion’s share, though growth is slower
Figure 12: Expenditures of Black consumers on dining out, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – LIMITED-SERVICE RESTAURANTS
Key points
Limited-service forecast to grow by 31% by 2019
Figure 13: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers at limited-service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 14: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers at limited-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Best-cast sales for limited-service could reach $35.8 billion by 2019
Figure 15: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers and dining out – limited-service segment, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS
Key points
10-year sales gains projected to grow by 71% from 2009-19
Figure 16: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers at full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 17: Expenditures and forecast of Black consumers at full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Best-cast sales for full-service could reach $23.5 billion by 2019
Figure 18: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers and dining out – full-service segment, at current prices, 2009-19
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Brand extensions
Expand with delivery and catering
Customization
LEADING COMPANIES AND MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Figure 19: Applebee’s “Take Two Menu” TV ad, June 2014
Figure 20: Chili’s “At Chili’s, Fresh is Now!” TV ad, October 2014
Figure 21: Red Lobster “Celebrate What’s New” TV ad, November 2014
Brand spotlight: McDonald’s
ATTITUDES TOWARD DINING OUT
Key points
Blacks want customization, variety, and ethnic dishes
Figure 22: Attitudes toward ordering appetizers/entrées/sides at restaurants, by gender, September 2014
Blacks from the West more receptive to ethnic dishes, especially soul food
Figure 23: Attitudes toward ordering appetizers/entrées/sides at restaurants, by region, September 2014
Mini desserts may be nice alternative for health-conscious Blacks
Figure 24: Attitudes toward ordering desserts at restaurants, by gender, September 2014
DECISION FACTORS FOR CHOOSING RESTAURANTS
Key points
Midwesterners take health into consideration, more so than South and Northeast
Figure 25: Health-related factors taken into consideration when choosing restaurants, by region, September 2014
Southerners much less concerned about sustainability, opportunity for marketers
Figure 26: Sustainability-related factors taken into consideration when choosing restaurants, by region, September 2014
Three in 10 prefer restaurants with advanced technology, especially Midwesterners
Figure 27: Technology-related factors taken into consideration when choosing restaurants, by region, September 2014
Midwesterners have keen eye on who’s doing what in Black community
Figure 28: Impact of being involved in the Black community has on restaurant consideration, by region, September 2014
DINING OUT DAYPARTS
Key points
Dining out dayparts: Overall
More Blacks eat at QSRs for lunch, casual dining for dinner
Figure 29: Type of restaurants visited, by daypart, September 2014
Correspondence analysis yields distinctions by daypart
Figure 30: Correspondence Analysis of dining out daypart and type of restaurant, January 2015
Dining out daypart: Breakfast
Blacks eat breakfast at QSRs and family restaurants
Figure 31: Restaurants eaten at for breakfast in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Dining out daypart: Lunch
Men more likely than women to dine at most restaurants for lunch
Figure 32: Restaurants eaten at for lunch in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Dining out daypart: Dinner
Men eat at a wide range of restaurants, more so than women
Figure 33: Restaurants eaten at for dinner in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Dining out daypart: Late Night
Men are twice as likely as women to eat out late at night
Figure 34: Restaurants eaten at for late night snack/meal in the past month, by gender, September 2014
ORDERING AND DINING BEHAVIORS
Key points
Food ordering behaviors
Four out of five order food in person, Millennials more likely to dine in
Figure 35: Ordering food at restaurants behaviors in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Two in five order online, food eaten somewhere else
Figure 36: Online ordering and dining habits in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Blacks order from drive-thru, less likely to eat in car
Figure 37: Drive-thru ordering and dining habits in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Dining behaviors
Eight in 10 Blacks do takeout, especially Baby Boomers
Figure 38: Dining outside of the restaurant behaviors in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Six in 10 Blacks dine in
Figure 39: Dining at the restaurant habits in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Majority of Blacks don’t eat in their car, most eat somewhere else
Figure 40: Eating in the car habits in the past month, by generations, September 2014
TYPES OF BEVERAGES CONSUMED AT RESTAURANTS
Key points
Soft drinks purchased with meals, specialty drinks warrant special visit
Figure 41: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by reason for ordering, September 2014
Men significantly more likely to order beverages at restaurants
Figure 42: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Women more likely to drink tea and coffee when they dine out
Figure 43: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month – with a meal/snack, by gender, September 2014
Blacks stop at restaurants specifically for specialty drinks, very few only stop for soft drinks
Figure 44: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month – as stand-alone, by gender, September 2014
QSR, FAST CASUAL, PIZZA, AND FOOD TRUCKS
Key points
Men significantly more likely to eat at QSRs, fast casuals, pizza restaurants, and food trucks
Figure 45: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Blacks eat at fast food restaurants significantly more than Whites
Figure 46: Frequency of visiting fast food and drive-in restaurants in the past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Southerners more likely to eat at QSR, pizza, and fast casual restaurants
Figure 47: Type of fast food, pizza, fast casual, and food trucks visited in the past month, by region, September 2014
Blacks go to most QSR, fast casual, and pizza restaurants alone
Figure 48: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants, by dining daypart, April 2013-June 2014
Blacks more likely than others to eat at McDonald’s
Figure 49: Top 10 fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Major differences in where Blacks dine, compared to other consumers
Figure 50: Top 10 list of fast food, fast casual, and pizza restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
CASUAL, FAMILY, AND FINE DINING RESTAURANTS
Key points
Men more likely than women to eat at sit-down restaurants
Figure 51: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by gender, September 2014
Figure 52: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by region, September 2014
Applebee’s is the leading restaurant among Blacks
Figure 53: Top 10 list of family or sit-down restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
APPENDIX – THE US BLACK POPULATION
Key points
Buying power
Figure 54: Buying power trends among Black consumers, 1990-2018 (projections)
Black buying power is growing at a faster rate than that of White consumers
Figure 55: Changes in buying power, by race, June 2013
Black buying power more than $1 trillion
Figure 56: Top 10 states or areas ranked by share of Black buying power, 2013
Top 10 states with highest buying power represent two thirds of buying power
Figure 57: Top 10 states ranked by value of Black buying power, 2013
Population statistics
Black population growing at a faster rate than Whites
Figure 58: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Black population growth slows
Figure 59: Asian, Black, and Hispanic populations, 1970-2020
Children younger than 18 account for 27% of Black population
Figure 60: Black population, by age, 2009-19
Geographic concentration
Majority of Blacks reside in the South; a different marketing approach may be needed
Figure 61: Black geographic concentration, by region, 2010
Population grows in the South, reverse migration may be occurring
Figure 62: Top 20 states or areas with highest Black population and percentage change from 2000-10, 2010
New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Houston are top Black metros
Figure 63: Top 10 cities with the largest population of Blacks, 2010
More than 80% of Detroit’s and Jackson’s population is Black
Figure 64: Top 10 cities with the highest percentage of Blacks [in millions], 2010
Gender
Figure 65: Men by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Figure 66: Women by race and Hispanic origin, 2009-19
Generations
iGeneration and Millennials represent nearly half of Black population
Figure 67: Population of generations, by race/Hispanic origin, 2014
Figure 68: Distribution of population by race and generation, 2014
Marital status
Only one third of Blacks are married, compared to 50% or more of others
Figure 69: Percentage of married and not married people aged 18 or older, by race and Hispanic origin, 2013
Blacks twice as likely never to marry
Figure 70: Marital status of adults aged 18 or older, by race/Hispanic origin, 2013
Figure 71: Marital status of Blacks, by age, 2013
Figure 72: Marital status of Black adults, by gender, 2013
Parental status
One third of Black households are headed by women
Figure 73: Households type, by race of householder, 2013
More Black children born to unmarried women in 2012
Figure 74: Fertility rate, by race and Hispanic origin of mother, 2002-12
Figure 75: Percentage of births to unmarried mothers, by race and Hispanic origin of mother, 2002 and 2012
Figure 76: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
Figure 77: Who children live with, by race and Hispanic origin, 2012
Figure 78: Black households, by presence and ages of own children, 2013
Education
Majority of Blacks seek college, while others may be relying on entrepreneurship
Figure 79: Educational attainment of Blacks aged 25 or older, by age, 2012
Income
Blacks have lower household incomes, attributed to several factors besides occupation
Figure 80: Median household income, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
Figure 81: Household income distribution by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2012
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Race/Hispanic origin
Figure 82: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – lunch, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 83: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for dinner, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 84: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – snacks, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 85: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2013-June 2014
Gender
Figure 86: Fast food or drive-in restaurant visits, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 87: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – breakfast, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 88: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – lunch, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 89: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – dinner, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 90: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – snacks, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 91: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 92: Frequency of visiting fast food and drive-in restaurants in the past 30 days, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 93: Family and sit-down restaurant visits, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 94: Dining companions at family and sit-down restaurants, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 95: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – breakfast, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 96: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – lunch, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 97: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – dinner, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 98: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – snacks, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 99: Total past 30 day expenditures at a fast food or drive-in restaurant, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 100: Whether money spent at a fast food, drive-in, family, or sit-down restaurant, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 101: Total past 30 day expenditures at a family or sit-down restaurant, by gender, April 2013-June 2014
Age
Figure 102: Fast food or drive-in restaurant visits, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 103: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – breakfast, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 104: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – lunch, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 105: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – dinner, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 106: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – snacks, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 107: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 108: Frequency of visiting fast food and drive-in restaurants in the past 30 days, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 109: Family and sit-down restaurant visits, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 110: Dining companions at family and sit-down restaurants, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 111: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – breakfast, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 112: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – lunch, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 113: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – dinner, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 114: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – snacks, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 115: Total past 30 day expenditures at a fast food or drive-in restaurant, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 116: Whether money spent at a fast food, drive-in, family, or sit-down restaurant in the last 30 days, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 117: Total past 30 day expenditures at a family or sit-down restaurant, by age, April 2013-June 2014
Generation
Figure 118: Attitudes toward ordering desserts at restaurants, by generations, September 2014
Figure 119: Attitudes toward ordering appetizers/entrées/sides at restaurants, by generations, September 2014
Figure 120: Restaurants eaten at for breakfast in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 121: Restaurants eaten at for lunch in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 122: Restaurants eaten at for dinner in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 123: Restaurants eaten at for late night snack/meal in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 124: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 125: Factors taken into consideration when choosing restaurants, by generations, September 2014
Figure 126: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Figure 127: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by generations, September 2014
Household income
Figure 128: Fast food or drive-in restaurant visits, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 129: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – breakfast, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 130: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – lunch, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 131: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – dinner, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 132: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – snacks, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 133: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 134: Frequency of visiting fast food and drive-in restaurants in the past 30 days, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 135: Family and sit-down restaurant visits, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 136: Dining companions at family and sit-down restaurants, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 137: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – breakfast, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 138: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – lunch, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 139: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – dinner, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 140: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – snacks, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 141: Whether money spent at a fast food, drive-in, family, or sit-down restaurant in the last 30 days, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 142: Total past 30 day expenditures at a fast food or drive-in restaurant, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 143: Total past 30 day expenditures at a family or sit-down restaurant, by household income, April 2013-June 2014
Region
Figure 144: Attitudes toward ordering desserts at restaurants, by region, September 2014
Figure 145: Restaurants eaten at for breakfast in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 146: Restaurants eaten at for lunch in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 147: Restaurants eaten at for dinner in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 148: Restaurants eaten at for late night snack/meal in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 149: Fast food or drive-in restaurant visits, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 150: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – breakfast, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 151: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – lunch, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 152: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – dinner, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 153: Dining companions at fast food or drive-in restaurants – snacks, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 154: Fast food or drive-in restaurant chains visited for any dining daypart, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 155: Frequency of visiting fast food and drive-in restaurants in the past 30 days, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 156: Family and sit-down restaurant visits, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 157: Dining companions at family and sit-down restaurants, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 158: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – breakfast, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 159: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – lunch, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 160: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – dinner, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 161: Dining companions at family or sit-down restaurants – snacks, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 162: Whether money spent at a fast food, drive-in, family, or sit-down restaurant in the last 30 days, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 163: Total past 30 day expenditures at a fast food or drive-in restaurant, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 164: Total past 30 day expenditures at a family or sit-down restaurant, by region, April 2013-June 2014
Figure 165: How/where consumers have ordered and eaten in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 166: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by region, September 2014
Figure 167: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by region, September 2014
Type of restaurant
Figure 168: Attitudes toward ordering desserts at restaurants, by restaurant type visited, September 2014
Figure 169: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
Figure 170: Attitudes toward ordering appetizers/entrées/sides at restaurants, by restaurant type visited, September 2014
Figure 171: Restaurants eaten at for breakfast in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
Figure 172: Restaurants eaten at for lunch in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
Figure 173: Restaurants eaten at for dinner in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
Figure 174: Restaurants eaten at for late night snack/meal in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
Figure 175: Factors taken into consideration when choosing restaurants, by restaurant type, September 2014
Figure 176: How/where consumers have ordered and eaten in the past month, by restaurant type visited, September 2014
Figure 177: Beverages ordered at restaurants in the past month, by restaurant type, September 2014
Figure 178: Type of restaurants visited in the past month, by any meal, September 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
Council for Responsible Nutrition
Food Marketing Institute (FMI)
International Food Information Council (IFIC)
International Food Service Executives Association (IFSEA)
International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA)
International Foodservice Manufacturers Association (IFMA)
International Franchise Association (IFA)
National Council of Chain Restaurants (NCCR)
National Restaurant Association (NRA)
Organic Trade Association (OTA)
Produce Marketing Association (PMA)