Pizza - US - June 2014

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
Sales driven down by economic recovery, but brands can target specific demographics
Key players
The consumer
More than six in 10 eat takeout/delivery; less than six in 10 eat frozen
Figure 2: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, April 2014
Many tend to buy pizzas with naturally rising, hand-tossed crusts
Figure 3: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, April 2014
Relatively few respondents consider healthy pizza attributes to be important
Figure 4: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, April 2014
More than half report interest in a wider variety of pizza styles
Figure 5: Interest in pizza types, April 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How can frozen brands compete with pizzerias?
Facts
Insight: Focus on quality, convenience; opportunity for side dishes
Are consumers looking for BFY pizza?
Facts
Insight: Premium quality is more important
What are households with children looking for from store-bought pizza?
Facts
Insight: Sides, single-serve, unusual/artisanal styles, premium products
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Factory Fear
Trend: Extend My Brand
Trend: FSTR HYPR
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
As economy slowly recovers, consumers spend less on frozen pizza
Demographic factors help drive sales
Sales and forecast of pizza at retail
Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of pizza at retail, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of pizza at retail, at current prices, 2009-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Gradual economic recovery eats into frozen pizza sales
Figure 9: Frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases vs. a year ago, April 2014
Consumer confidence momentum, despite slip in May 2014, likely hurts frozen pizza sales
Figure 10: Consumer confidence index, January 2007-February 2014
Dropping unemployment rate points to greater spending power, need for convenience
Figure 11: US unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-February 2014
Age significantly impacts household usage of frozen pizza
Figure 12: Household use of frozen pizza (bought frozen), by age, November 2012-December 2013
Presence of children drives household frozen pizza usage
Figure 13: Household use of frozen pizza (bought frozen), by presence of children in household, November 2012-December 2013
Child obesity rates may negatively impact the frequency of kids eating pizza
Figure 14: Prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged 2-19, 1971-2010
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Pizza chains provide fun, family atmosphere, flavor, freshness
Value remains an important attribute
Online ordering makes delivery and pick-up even easier
Freshness sets chains apart from each other, and apart from frozen brands
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Frozen pizza comprises 82% of the market
Small share, slow growth, and losses registered among other segments
Sales of pizza at retail, by segment
Figure 15: Total US retail sales of pizza at retail, segmented by type, 2012 and 2014
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
Mostly flat sales expected between 2014 and 2019
Sales and forecast of frozen pizza
Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen pizza, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – REFRIGERATED/FROZEN CRUST/DOUGH AND KITS
Key points
More flat sales forecast
Sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – TAKE-AND-BAKE PIZZA
Key points
Small growth expected between 2014 and 2019
Sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza
Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of take-and-bake pizza, at current prices, 2009-19
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE – SHELF-STABLE KITS, CRUSTS/CRUST MIXES, AND SAUCE
Key points
Growth expected into 2019, but overall relatively small sales
Sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce
Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce, at current prices, 2009-19
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Supermarkets comprise 60% of the market in 2014; other channels gain
Sales of pizza at retail, by channel
Figure 20: Total US retail sales of pizza at retail, by channel, 2012 and 2014
Figure 21: US supermarket sales of pizza at retail, 2009-14
Figure 22: US other channel sales of pizza at retail, 2009-14
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Nestlé S.A. far outsells all other top MULO companies
Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail
Figure 23: Manufacturer sales of pizza at retail, 2013 and 2014
BRAND SHARE – FROZEN PIZZA
Key points
DiGiorno regular drops 7.5% but Pizzeria! earns $89 million in first year
Schwan’s Red Baron drops while GM’s Totino’s Party Pizza gains
Private label grows 4%, comprises 10% of the segment
Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza
Figure 24: Manufacturer sales of frozen pizza, 2013 and 2014
Top three brands enjoy highest household penetration, brand loyalty
Figure 25: Key purchase measures for the top pizza at retail brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
BRAND SHARE – REFRIGERATED/FROZEN CRUST/DOUGH AND KITS
Key points
Private label dominates
Manufacturer sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits
Figure 26: Manufacturer sales of refrigerated/frozen crust/dough and kits, 2013 and 2014
Pillsbury enjoys high brand loyalty despite sales decline
Figure 27: Key purchase measures for the top refrigerated pizza crust/dough brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
BRAND SHARE – SHELF-STABLE KITS, CRUSTS/CRUST MIXES, AND SAUCE
Key points
Top crust and sauce brands decline; store brands grow 14.6%
Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce
Figure 28: Manufacturer sales of shelf-stable kits, crusts/crust mixes, and sauce, 2013 and 2014
Private label pizza sauce enjoys high degree of brand loyalty
Figure 29: Key purchase measures for the pizza sauce brands, by household penetration, 52 weeks ending Dec. 30, 2012 (a year ago) and Dec. 29, 2013 (current)
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS
Premium product claims are high, as are no additives/preservatives
Figure 30: Top 10 frozen pizza product claims, 2009-13
Premium ingredients help set frozen pizza brands apart from competition
No/reduced artificial ingredients
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview of the brand landscape
Theme: Freshness
Brand example: DiGiorno
DiGiorno TV spot
Figure 31: DiGiorno TV ad, 2013
Brand example: Freschetta
Freshchetta TV spot
Figure 32: Freschetta TV ad, 2013
Theme: Targeting younger consumers and families
Brand example: DiGiorno
Brand example: Tombstone
TYPES OF PIZZA EATEN IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS
Key points
More than six in 10 eat store-bought pizza, as well as takeout/delivery
Figure 33: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by gender, April 2014
Consumption of store-bought pizza declines with age
Figure 34: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by age, April 2014
Presence of children a strong indicator for household consumption
Figure 35: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by presence of children in household, April 2014
PURCHASE BEHAVIORS TOWARD STORE-BOUGHT FROZEN/REFRIGERATED PIZZA
Key points
Respondents are significantly likely to buy premium crusts
Figure 36: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by age, April 2014
Households with kids more likely to buy naturally rising, hand-tossed crust
Figure 37: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by presence of children in household, April 2014
IMPORTANT HEALTH-RELATED PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES FOR FROZEN/REFRIGERATED PIZZA PURCHASES
Key points
Relatively few consider health-related attributes important
Figure 38: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by age, April 2014
$150K+ most likely to say all-natural/organic, whole-grain crust important
Figure 39: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by household income, April 2014
Hispanics significantly likely to look for healthy attributes
Figure 40: Important health-related product attributes for frozen/refrigerated pizza purchases, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
INTEREST IN PIZZA TYPES
Key points
More than half report interest in wider variety of pizza types
Figure 41: Interest in pizza types, by gender, April 2014
18-34s most interested in side dishes, sharable sizes and shapes
Figure 42: Interest in pizza types, by age, April 2014
Households with kids most interested in sides, sharable formats, singles
Figure 43: Interest in pizza types, by presence of children in household, April 2014
ATTITUDES TOWARD PIZZA
Key points
Two thirds agree that store-bought compares unfavorably with pizzerias
Figure 44: Attitudes toward pizza, April 2014
Presence of children significantly impacts attitudes toward pizza
Figure 45: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree), by presence of children in household, April 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Types of pizza eaten in last 6 months
Figure 46: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by household income, April 2014
Figure 47: Types of pizza eaten in last six months, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza
Figure 48: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by household income, April 2014
Figure 49: Purchase behaviors toward store-bought frozen/refrigerated pizza, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Interest in pizza types
Figure 50: Interest in pizza types, by household income, April 2014
Figure 51: Interest in pizza types, by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
Attitudes toward pizza
Figure 52: Attitudes toward pizza, by age (any agree), April 2014
Figure 53: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree), by household income, April 2014
Figure 54: Attitudes toward pizza (any agree) , by race/Hispanic origin, April 2014
APPENDIX – INFORMATION RESOURCES INC. BUILDERS PANEL DATA DEFINITIONS
Information Resources Inc. Consumer Network Metrics
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS