Carbonated Beverages - Ireland - November 2013

INTRODUCTION
Key themes within the report
Definition
Data sources
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Value sales of carbonated drinks market, by on-trade and off-trade, NI and RoI, 2013
Forecast
Figure 2: Indexed total value of the carbonated drinks market, NI and RoI, 2009-19
Market factors
Summer 2013 weather a boon to the industry
Continued pressure on consumer spending
More effort needed to target the over-55s
Sugar tax would see over a third buy carbonates less often
Stevia usage gaining steam
Companies, brands and innovations
The consumer
Colas the most popular type of soft drink, at home and out of home
Figure 3: Consumers who have drunk carbonated beverages at home in the last six months, NI and RoI, November 2013
Plastic bottles more preferable than cans to the majority of Irish consumers
Figure 4: Agreement with statements relating to carbonated beverages, NI and RoI, November 2013
Number of carbonated drink types viewed as being ‘artificial’ and/or ‘overpriced’
Figure 5: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, NI and RoI, November 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
How have the changes in consumer spending impacted on carbonated soft drink sales?
What impact did the warm summer weather of 2013 have on carbonated soft drink sales?
What impact would a new sugar tax have on the carbonated soft drink market?
What impact will the use of stevia have on the industry?
What type of carbonated drinks do consumers drink the most?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Sense of the Intense
Trend: Supernanny State
Mintel Futures: Old Gold
MARKET OVERVIEW
Key points
Pressure on consumer spending continues
Figure 6: Real household net disposable income, annual growth rates, 2007-12
Figure 7: Annual food inflation, percentage change on the same period of the previous year, UK (including NI) and RoI, February-September 2013
Discounters increasingly an important channel to market
Summer weather of 2013 good for carbonated beverages industry
Targeting mature consumers increasingly important target
Figure 8: NI and RoI population forecasts, by age group, 2010-32*
Mature consumers worried about health
Figure 9: Agreement with the statement ‘I want to be in better physical health’, by age, NI and RoI, July 2013
Call for 20% sugar tax in UK and 10% in RoI
Consumers note they would cut back if the tax were introduced
Figure 10: How consumers would change their carbonated beverage purchasing behaviour if additional sugar tax were introduced, NI and RoI, November 2013
Figure 11: Agreement with the statement “I would still keep buying it but would buy less often”, by age, NI and RoI, November 2013
Sugary carbonated drinks could make it harder to lose weight
Strong increase in stevia use
Figure 12: New product launches within the drinks category containing stevia, by sub-category, 2009-14
Benefits of stevia
Big brands beginning to use stevia
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Carbonates account for the biggest section of the overall soft drinks market
Figure 13: Estimated total value of the soft drinks market, by on-trade and off-trade, IoI, 2013
Bottled water sells better outside the home
Fruit and vegetable juice main competitor for market share
Sports and energy drinks see higher value sales in the on-trade
Figure 14: Estimated value of the sports and energy drink market, on-trade vs. off-trade, IoI, 2013
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Market value continues to decline in 2013
Figure 15: Estimated total value of the carbonated drinks market, NI and RoI, 2009-19
Market value set to recover – but not until 2019
Figure 16: Indexed total value of the carbonated drinks market, NI and RoI, 2009-19
Volume sales increase due to discounter pricing
Figure 17: Estimated total volume sales of the carbonated drinks market, NI and RoI, 2009-19
On-trade sales falling
Figure 18: Value sales of carbonated drinks market – on-trade, NI and RoI, 2009-19
Figure 19: Indexed on-trade value of carbonated beverages vs. indexed value of foodservice market (at consumer prices), IoI, 2009-18
NI off-trade sales performing better than RoI
Figure 20: Value sales of carbonated drinks market – off-trade, NI and RoI, 2009-19
COMPANIES AND INNOVATIONS
Key points
NPD for carbonated drinks increasing in 2012/13
Figure 21: New product launches in the carbonated beverages category, private label vs. branded, UK and Ireland, 2007-13
Majority of new product launches are with new packaging
Figure 22: New product launches in the carbonated beverages category, by top five launch types, UK and Ireland, 2008-13
Figure 23: New product launches in the carbonated beverages category, by types of packaging used, UK and Ireland, 2008-13
Environmentally friendly packaging top claim
Figure 24: New product launches in the carbonated beverages category, by top five claims, UK and Ireland, 2008-13
 COMPANY PROFILES
AG Barr
Figure 25: AG Barr carbonated soft drink brands, 2013
Britvic Ireland
Figure 26: Britvic Ireland carbonated brands, 2013
Coca-Cola
Figure 27: Coca-Cola Ireland carbonated brands, 2013
Suntory
PepsiCo
Figure 28: PepsiCo carbonated soft drink brands, 2013
Red Bull
THE CONSUMER – USAGE OF CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Key points
Standard cola most popular type of carbonated soft drink
Figure 29: Consumers who have drunk carbonated beverages in the last six months, by location, NI and RoI, November 2013
Standard colas drunk at home more
Figure 30: Consumers who have drunk standard cola (eg Coke, Pepsi) in the last six months, by location, NI and RoI, November 2013
Young consumers drink more standard cola
Figure 31: Consumers who have drunk standard cola (eg Coke, Pepsi) in the last six months at home, by gender and age, NI and RoI, November 2013
Figure 32: Consumers who eat junk food at least once per day, by age, NI and RoI, July 2013
Diet colas drunk less than standard, but still see strong usage
Figure 33: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola (eg Diet Coke, Pepsi Max) in the last six months at home, by location, NI and RoI, November 2013
Figure 34: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola (eg Diet Coke, Pepsi Max) in the last six months at home, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2013
RoI consumers opt more for diet non-colas, NI consumers prefer standard variants
Figure 35: Consumers who have drunk standard non-colas vs. low- or no-calorie/diet non-colas in the last six months at home, NI and RoI, November 2013
NI consumers almost twice as likely as RoI consumers to drink carbonated fruit juices
Figure 36: Consumers who have drunk carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks (eg Shloer, Appletiser, Rubicon) in the last six months at home, by gender and social class, NI and RoI, November 2013
Flavoured water sees higher usage than functional water
Figure 37: Consumers who have drunk carbonated water with added flavour vs. carbonated water with added vitamins/minerals in the last six months at home, NI and RoI, November 2013
THE CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Key points
Two thirds of consumers prefer bottles to cans
Figure 38: Agreement with statements relating to carbonated beverages, NI and RoI, November 2013
Packaging matters to consumers
Figure 39: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer plastic bottles to cans because they can be resealed’, by gender and social class, NI and RoI, November 2013
Flavoured water seen as a healthier alternative to standard carbonates
Figure 40: Agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured waters are a healthier alternative to carbonated soft drinks’, by number of children in household, NI and RoI, November 2013
Irish consumers receptive to natural sweeteners in carbonated drinks
Figure 41: Agreement with the statement ‘I am interested in buying low-calorie drinks made with natural sweeteners (eg stevia)’, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2013
NI consumers more open to customising their drinks than RoI
Figure 42: Agreement with the statement ‘I like the idea of customising the flavour of my drink (eg with flavour drops)’, by age, NI and RoI, November 2013
NI consumers also shown to be interested in new flavours
THE CONSUMER – CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATED BEVERAGES
Key points
Standard colas are seen as refreshing, but also artificial
Figure 43: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, NI and RoI, November 2013
Colas more likely to be seen as overpriced
Figure 44: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks relating to price, NI and RoI, November 2013
Non-colas not seen to be as fashionable as colas
Figure 45: Characteristics associated with carbonated non-cola drinks, NI and RoI, November 2013
Figure 46: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola and non-cola drinks relating to excitement and fashion, NI and RoI, November 2013
Carbonated juices seen as suitable for children, but overpriced
Figure 47: Characteristics associated with carbonated fruit juice drinks, NI and RoI, November 2013
NI consumers less likely to see fruit drinks as overpriced
Unflavoured water seen as having healthy characteristics
Figure 48: Characteristics associated with carbonated unflavoured water, NI and RoI, November 2013
Flavoured water seen as more artificial than unflavoured water
Figure 49: Characteristics associated with carbonated flavoured water, NI and RoI, November 2013
Figure 50: Consumers who agree flavoured and unflavoured carbonated water is suitable for children, NI and RoI, November 2013
Sports and energy drinks seen as overpriced
Figure 51: Characteristics associated with sports and energy drinks, NI and RoI, November 2013
Energy drinks seen as being artificial and too sweet
Fashionable positioning helps drive sales
APPENDIX
Market size tables
RoI
Figure 52: Value sales of carbonated drinks market, by on-trade and off-trade, RoI, 2009-19
Figure 53: Estimated total volume sales of the carbonated drinks market, RoI, 2009-19
NI
Figure 54: Value sales of carbonated drinks market, by on-trade and off-trade, NI, 2009-19
Figure 55: Estimated total volume sales of the carbonated drinks market, NI, 2009-19
NI Toluna data tables
Figure 56: Consumers who have drunk standard cola (eg Coke, Pepsi) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 57: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola (eg Diet Coke, Pepsi Max) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 58: Consumers who have drunk standard non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drink (eg lemonade, ginger beer) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 59: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drink (eg 7UP Free, Sprite Zero) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 60: Consumers who have drunk carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks (eg Shloer, Appletiser, Rubicon) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 61: Consumers who have drunk mixers (eg tonic water) to be drunk on their own in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 62: Consumers who have drunk mixers to be used with alcohol (eg tonic water as part of gin & tonic) in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 63: Consumers who have drunk carbonated water with added flavour in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 64: Consumers who have drunk carbonated water with added vitamins/minerals in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 65: Consumers who have drunk other carbonated beverages in the last six months, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 66: How consumers would change their carbonated beverage purchasing behaviour if additional sugar tax were introduced, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 67: Agreement with the statement ‘Drinks in glass bottles are of higher quality than those in plastic bottles’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 68: Agreement with the statement ‘Own-label drinks taste as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 69: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more new, unusual flavours (eg ginger-flavoured cola)’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 70: Agreement with the statement ‘I am interested in buying low-calorie drinks made with natural sweeteners (eg stevia)’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 71: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer the taste of diet/light drinks (eg Diet Coke) to standard variants’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 72: Agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured waters are a healthier alternative to carbonated soft drinks’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 73: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more carbonated soft drinks with a less sweet taste (eg carrot juice)’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 74: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to drink locally made carbonated drinks (eg Classic Lemonade, Finches)’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 75: Agreement with the statement ‘I like the idea of customising the flavour of my drink (eg with flavour drops)’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 76: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in a carbonated soft drink which gives me an energy boost’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 77: Agreement with the statement ‘Brand name is important when picking a carbonated beverage’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 78: Agreement with the statement ‘Carbonated soft drinks are suitable for children in moderation’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 79: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer plastic bottles to cans because they can be resealed’, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 80: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 81: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 82: Characteristics associated with carbonated non-cola drinks (eg lemonade), by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 83: Characteristics associated with carbonated non-cola drinks (eg lemonade), by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 84: Characteristics associated with carbonated juice drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 85: Characteristics associated with carbonated juice drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 86: Characteristics associated with carbonated unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 87: Characteristics associated with carbonated unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 88: Characteristics associated with carbonated flavoured bottled water, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 89: Characteristics associated with carbonated flavoured bottled water, by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 90: Characteristics associated with energy/sports drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013
Figure 91: Characteristics associated with energy/sports drinks, by demographics, NI, November 2013 (continued)
RoI Toluna data tables
Figure 92: Consumers who have drunk standard cola (eg Coke, Pepsi) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 93: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet cola (eg Diet Coke, Pepsi Max) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 94: Consumers who have drunk standard non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drink (eg lemonade, ginger beer) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 95: Consumers who have drunk low- or no-calorie/diet non-cola flavoured carbonated soft drink (eg 7UP Free, Sprite Zero) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 96: Consumers who have drunk carbonated fruit juice and juice drinks (eg Shloer, Appletiser, Rubicon) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 97: Consumers who have drunk mixers (eg tonic water) to be drunk on their own in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 98: Consumers who have drunk mixers to be used with alcohol (eg tonic water as part of gin & tonic) in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 99: Consumers who have drunk carbonated water with added flavour in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 100: Consumers who have drunk carbonated water with added vitamins/minerals in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 101: Consumers who have drunk other carbonated beverages in the last six months, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 102: How consumers would change their carbonated beverage purchasing behaviour if additional sugar tax were introduced, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 103: Agreement with the statement ‘Drinks in glass bottles are of higher quality than those in plastic bottles’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 104: Agreement with the statement ‘Own-label drinks taste as good as branded varieties’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 105: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more new, unusual flavours (eg ginger-flavoured cola)’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 106: Agreement with the statement ‘I am interested in buying low-calorie drinks made with natural sweeteners (eg stevia)’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 107: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer the taste of diet/light drinks (eg Diet Coke) to standard variants’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 108: Agreement with the statement ‘Flavoured waters are a healthier alternative to carbonated soft drinks’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 109: Agreement with the statement ‘I would like to see more carbonated soft drinks with a less sweet taste (eg carrot juice)’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 110: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer to drink locally made carbonated drinks (eg Classic Lemonade, Finches)’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 111: Agreement with the statement ‘I like the idea of customising the flavour of my drink (eg with flavour drops)’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 112: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in a carbonated soft drink which gives me an energy boost’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 113: Agreement with the statement ‘Brand name is important when picking a carbonated beverage’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 114: Agreement with the statement ‘Carbonated soft drinks are suitable for children in moderation’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 115: Agreement with the statement ‘I prefer plastic bottles to cans because they can be resealed’, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 116: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 117: Characteristics associated with carbonated cola drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 118: Characteristics associated with carbonated non-cola drinks (eg lemonade), by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 119: Characteristics associated with carbonated non-cola drinks (eg lemonade), by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 120: Characteristics associated with carbonated juice drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 121: Characteristics associated with carbonated juice drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 122: Characteristics associated with carbonated unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 123: Characteristics associated with carbonated unflavoured bottled water, by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 124: Characteristics associated with carbonated flavoured bottled water, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 125: Characteristics associated with carbonated flavoured bottled water, by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)
Figure 126: Characteristics associated with energy/sports drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013
Figure 127: Characteristics associated with energy/sports drinks, by demographics, RoI, November 2013 (continued)