Bread and Baked Goods - UK - September 2013

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2011-13
Forecast
Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2008-18
Market factors
Wheat prices remain high
Bread’s health credentials under scrutiny
Changing consumer lifestyles have been impacting the market
Companies, brands and innovation
Warburtons remains market leader in 2012/13
Figure 3: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2012/13*
Own-label drives NPD activity in 2012, however brands have fought back in 2013
The consumer
Bread enjoys almost universal appeal
Figure 4: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 5: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
Eating occasions beyond lunch and breakfast remain niche
Freshness is the single most important choice factor for bread shoppers
Figure 6: Factors considered when buying bread and baked goods, June 2013
Variety and health are key concerns for bread and baked goods users
Figure 7: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, June 2013
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What measures can be taken to address the health myths about bread?
What opportunities are there to justify a premium positioning?
How can manufacturers mine variety to maintain users’ engagement with the market?
How can sweet baked goods leverage their snacking associations better?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: The Big Issue
Trend: Many Mes
Mintel Futures: Human
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Low consumer sentiment has little impact on the market
Figure 8: Monthly consumer confidence index, January 2007-June 2013
Soaring wheat prices continue to put pressure on the market
Figure 9: Monthly index of producer prices of breadmaking wheat in the UK, January 2009-March 2013
Demographic changes represent both opportunities and threats
Figure 10: Projected trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2013-18
Figure 11: UK households, by size, 2008-18
Bread’s health credentials under scrutiny
Bread suffers from an adverse health image among consumers
Bread under fire for high salt levels and reportedly misleading wholemeal claims
Rising awareness of food allergies/intolerances benefits free-from segment
Increasingly busy consumer lifestyles have been impacting the market
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES
Strengths
Weaknesses
WHO’S INNOVATING?
Key points
Own-label accounts for almost two thirds of new launches in 2012
Figure 12: New product development in the UK bread market, branded vs own-label, 2009-13
Morrisons leads NPD activity focusing on health, with Tesco being hot on its heels with speciality bread
Figure 13: New product launches in the UK bread market, by top 10 companies, 2009-13
Breakfast occasion and sandwich alternatives hold leading brands’ attention
Increased focus on smaller-sized packs and mini-formats
Ethical packaging claims on the rise
Figure 14: New product launches in the UK bread market, by top 20 claims, 2009-13
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
2013 value growth ahead of 2012
Figure 15: UK retail value and volume sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
Forecast
Figure 16: UK retail value sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
Figure 17: UK retail volume sales of the total bread and baked goods market*, 2008-18
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Sweet baked goods and speciality bread enjoy the strongest growth in 2013
Figure 18: UK retail value sales of key bread and bakery sectors, 2011-13
Pre-packed bread loses share to sweet baked goods
Figure 19: UK retail volume sales of pre-packed bread, 2008-13
Figure 20: UK retail value sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2011-13
Sweet baked goods segment is the star performer in 2013
Figure 21: UK retail value sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2011-13
Speciality bread also outperforms the overall market
Figure 22: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2011-13
In-store bakeries benefit from consumers’ demand for freshness and variety
Figure 23: Retail value sales of in-store bakeries’ bread and baked goods, 2011-13
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Top three manufacturers account for majority of sales
Figure 24: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2012/13*
Warburtons increased its share across all three segments in 2012/13
Has Hovis missed the boat on sandwich alternatives?
Kingsmill suffers from intense competition
Health-focused brands fare well
Figure 25: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread market, by value and volume, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Figure 26: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls market, by value, 2011/12 and 2012/13
Figure 27: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods market, by value, 2011/12 and 2012/13
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Allied Bakeries
Background
Product range
Innovation
Recent activity and promotion
Brace's Bakery
Background
Product range
Recent activity and promotion
Aryzta
Background
Product range
Recent activity and promotion
Greggs
Background
Product range
Recent activity and promotion
McCambridge Group
Background
Product range
Recent activity and promotion
Premier Foods
Background
Product range
Innovation
Recent activity
Promotion
Warburtons
Background
Product range
Innovation
Recent activity and promotion
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Adspend increased by 5% in 2012
Figure 28: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2009-13*
Allied Bakeries continued to lead adspend in 2012
Figure 29: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 advertisers, 2009-13*
Brands look to increase consumer engagement on social media
TV continued to be preferred medium for bread manufacturers in 2012
Figure 30: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by media type, 2009-13*
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Supermarket giants benefit from success of in-store bakeries
Figure 31: Retail distribution of bread and baked goods, 2009-12
In-store bakeries’ success takes its toll on craft bakeries
CONSUMER – PURCHASE AND USAGE OF BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Key points
Bread enjoys almost universal appeal
Figure 32: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Eight in ten adults buy baked goods
Figure 33: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
Repertoires increase with income and household size
Figure 34: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 35: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
Packaged sliced bread is eaten most frequently…
Figure 36: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods, June 2013
…while other bread types and baked goods are more of a treat
CONSUMER – TYPES OF PACKAGED BREAD BOUGHT
Key points
White is by far the most popular packaged bread type
Figure 37: Types of packaged bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
CONSUMER – EATING OCCASIONS FOR BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Key points
Lunch at home is the most popular occasion for eating bread
Figure 38: Occasions for typically eating bread, June 2013
Only half of users eat bread for breakfast during the week
Baked goods are most commonly eaten as a snack in the afternoon
Figure 39: Occasions for typically eating baked goods, June 2013
CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Key points
Freshness is the single most important factor for bread shoppers
Figure 40: Factors considered when buying bread and baked goods, June 2013
Younger consumers are more price-conscious
Technical nutritional information more relevant to younger consumers
CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Key points
Variety packs should help to encourage usage of different types of bread
Figure 41: Users’ attitudes towards bread and baked goods, June 2013
Consumers need to be educated better about bread’s health benefits
Absence of artificial preservatives should be leveraged better as a USP
Sweet bread could forge a role as a guilt-free treat
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2013-18
Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2013-18
APPENDIX – MARKET SHARE
Figure 44: Value sales of the leading manufacturers in the UK’s bread and baked goods market, 2011/12-12/13
APPENDIX – BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Figure 45: Total above-the-line advertising expenditure in the UK bread and baked goods market, by top 10 brands, 2009-13*
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – PURCHASE AND USAGE OF BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Purchase of bread and baked goods
Figure 46: Types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 47: Types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 48: Most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 49: Next most popular types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 50: Other types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 51: Most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 52: Next most popular types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 53: Other types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Repertoires of bread bought
Figure 54: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 55: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 56: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 57: Repertoire of types of baked goods bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
Frequency of eating bread and baked goods
Figure 58: Frequency of eating bread/baked goods, June 2013
Figure 59: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 60: Frequency of eating packaged sliced bread, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
Figure 61: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 62: Frequency of eating other types of bread, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
Figure 63: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 64: Frequency of eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013 (continued)
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – TYPES OF PACKAGED BREAD BOUGHT
Figure 65: Types of packaged sliced bread bought in the last three months, June 2013
Figure 66: Most popular types of packaged sliced bread bought in the last three months, by demographics, June 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – EATING OCCASIONS FOR BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Figure 67: Occasions for eating bread, June 2013
Figure 68: Occasions for eating baked goods, June 2013
Figure 69: Most popular occasions for eating bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 70: Next most popular occasions for eating bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 71: Most popular occasions for eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 72: Next most popular occasions for eating baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – CHOICE FACTORS
Figure 73: Factors considered when choosing bread, June 2013
Figure 74: Factors considered when choosing baked goods, June 2013
Figure 75: Most popular factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 76: Next most popular factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 77: Other factors considered when choosing bread, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 78: Most popular factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 79: Next most popular factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 80: Other factors considered when choosing baked goods, by demographics, June 2013
APPENDIX – CONSUMER – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BREAD AND BAKED GOODS
Figure 81: Attitudes towards bread/baked goods, June 2013
Figure 82: Agreement with the statement ‘Trying different types of bread appeals to me’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 83: Agreement with the statement ‘It is worth paying more for high quality bread’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 84: Agreement with the statement ‘It is easy to get bored with homemade sandwiches’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 85: Agreement with the statement ‘Bread is not a good food option for those trying to lose weight’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 86: Agreement with the statement ‘Other breakfast options are healthier than bread/baked goods’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 87: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying high protein bread’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 88: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in trying bread/baked goods containing fruit/vegetables’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 89: Agreement with the statement ‘Sliced bread contains too many artificial preservatives’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 90: Agreement with the statement ‘Alternative baked goods are better for you than standard bread’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 91: Agreement with the statement ‘Sweet-flavoured bread is a healthier alternative to other sweet treats’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 92: Agreement with the statement ‘There is not enough time to have bread/baked goods at home in the morning’, by demographics, June 2013
Figure 93: Agreement with the statement ‘Miniature baked goods are more appealing to me than regular baked goods’, by demographics, June 2013