Books and e-books - UK - September 2012

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Consumer book sales set to rise
Figure 1: UK consumer book market size and forecast, 2007-17
Market factors
Figure 2: Trends in device ownership levels, January 2012-July 2012
Pricing continues to hit the headlines
Events boost sales
Companies, products and innovation
Figure 3: UK publishers’ share of total consumer market, 2011
The consumer
Figure 4: Book buying behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 5: Book buying considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 6: Book buying and discovery, June 2012
Figure 7: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, June 2012
Figure 8: Books and e-books target groups, June 2012
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Is print doomed as a book format?
How important is it to consumers to be able to read e-books on multiple devices?
Will the tablet become the reading device of choice?
What are the opportunities for bundling together different types of book?
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Home of the Senses
Trend: Guiding Choice
2015 Inspire Prediction: Access, Anything, Anywhere
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Device ownership levels
Figure 9: Trends in device ownership levels, January 2012-July 2012
Figure 10: Device purchasing intentions in next three months, July 2012
Erotica comes of age
Fifty shades smashes all records
Sales explode
Mills & Boon targets erotica segment
e-book pricing hits the headlines
Digital Rights Management (DRM)
Library closures still a hot topic
Literacy concerns abound
Rise of the supermarkets
Events drive awareness and sales
Book programmes and book clubs also influence sales
The growth of self-publishing
Publishers move to outsource printing
UK economy struggles to recover from global economic crisis
Figure 11: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2012 prices, 2007-17
Household incomes squeezed
Figure 12: Trends in inflation and average weekly earnings, 2008-12
Consumer confidence remains at low levels
Figure 13: Trends in UK consumer confidence, January 2010-August 2012
Public transport boom provides more demand for reading on-the-go
Figure 14: Public transport journeys, 1981/82-2010/11
Higher education enrolment growth has double benefits
Figure 15: Higher Education enrolments*, by level of study, 2004/05-2010/11
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
How does the US book market compare to the UK?
Figure 16: Trends in number of titles published in the UK and US, 2007-11
Figure 17: Top 20 subjects in traditional book titles published in the US, 2007-11
WHO’S INNOVATING
Key points
Publishers continue to push boundaries with new formats
Mobile apps flood onto the market
Bringing covers to life
Bardowl launches ‘Spotify for audiobooks’
Getting social: online communities, crowdsourcing and social media
Tempting readers with chapters
Authors tap into crowdsourcing
Wattpad enables discovery, sharing and collaboration
New e-book stores target academic, education and business sectors
A challenge for Kindle’s supremacy?
Guardian seeks to bolster independent bookshops
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Digital growth slows overall market decline
Figure 18: UK total sales of books*, by value and volume, 2007-17
2013 to be the tipping point?
Print will still have a role to play
Physical book sales continue to decline
Figure 19: UK total sales of physical books, by value and volume, 2007-11
The consumer book market
Figure 20: UK consumer book market, 2007-17
Figure 21: UK total consumer market (TCM*) for books through the retail market, 2007-11
Figure 22: UK consumer e-book market, 2007-11
Forecast
Figure 23: Forecast UK consumer books market value, 2007-17
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Non-fiction is biggest sector ahead of academic/professional
Figure 24: UK total sales of physical books, by value, by segment 2007-11
Figure 25: UK total sales of books, by volume, by segment 2007-11
Adult non-fiction prices rise by nearly a fifth
Figure 26: Average book prices, hardback and paperback, September 2005-September 2011
The impact of e-books on fiction
Sector trends: e-books
Major publisher e-book sales trends
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Hachette and Random House fight for market leadership
Figure 27: UK publishers’ share of total consumer market*, 2010-11
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Key points
Industry overview
Figure 28: Trends in the number of UK publishers registering for their first ISBN prefix, 2007-11
Figure 29: Number of VAT-registered book publishers, by turnover size band, 2010-11
Figure 30: Number of VAT-registered book publishers, by employment size band, 2010-11
Figure 31: Number of VAT-registered book publishers, by region, 2010-11
Figure 32: Number of VAT-registered book publishers, by age of business, 2011
Bloomsbury Publishing plc
Figure 33: Bloomsbury Publishing plc financial results, 2007-12
Figure 34: Bloomsbury Publishing plc, breakdown of revenue by region, 2007-11
Figure 35: Bloomsbury Publishing plc, breakdown of revenue by segment, 2007-11
Hachette UK
Figure 36: Financial results of companies comprising Hachette UK, 2006-10
HarperCollins Publishers Ltd
Figure 37: HarperCollins Publishers Ltd financial results, 2007-11
Figure 38: HarperCollins Publishers Ltd breakdown of turnover by region, 2007-11
Independent Alliance
Figure 39: Faber & Faber Ltd financial results, 2007-11
Figure 40: Atlantic Books Ltd financial results, 2009-10
Figure 41: Canongate Books Ltd financial results, 2009-10
Figure 42: Profile Books Ltd financial results, 2010-11
Figure 43: Quercus Publishing plc financial results, 2007-11
Macmillan Publishers Ltd
Figure 44: Macmillan Publishers Ltd financial results, 2006-10
Figure 45: Macmillan Publishers Ltd turnover by business segment, 2006-10
McGraw-Hill International (UK) Ltd
Figure 46: McGraw-Hill International (UK) Ltd financial results 2006-10
Oxford University Press
Figure 47: Oxford University Press financial results, 2007-11
Pearson plc
Figure 48: Pearson plc financial results, 2007-11
Figure 49: Pearson plc breakdown of revenue by segment, 2007-11
The Random House Group Ltd
Figure 50: The Random House Group Ltd financial results, 2006-10
Figure 51: The Random House Group ltd, breakdown of turnover by region, 2006-10
Simon & Schuster (UK) Ltd
Figure 52: Simon & Schuster (UK) Ltd financial results, 2006-10
Figure 53: Simon & Schuster (UK) Ltd, breakdown of turnover by region, 2006-10
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
March of the internet channel continues apace
Figure 54: Share of book sales*, by volume and value, by distribution channel, 2009 and 2010
The specialist retailers
Figure 55: Brief overview of major bookshops, July 2012
Waterstones goes for broke
WH Smith defends its position
Foyles shakes off its dowdy image
Online and non-specialist retailers
Figure 56: Brief overview of other major retailers, July 2012
Kindle drives Amazon forward
Supermarkets look for a slice of the action
Independent booksellers struggle to stay relevant
BRAND COMMUNICATION AND PROMOTION
Key points
Figure 57: Top 20 advertisers in book publishing and retail, 2008-11
Brand spend quite fragmented
Figure 58: Top 20 book brands advertised in 2011
Outdoor is the favoured media channel for books
Figure 59: Book publishing and retail advertising spend by type of media, 2011
Significant campaigns/promotions/sponsorships
BOOK BUYING AND READING BEHAVIOUR
Key points
Paperbacks dominate book buying
Figure 60: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Four times as many people buy print books than e-books
e-books make biggest impact on fiction
One in ten adults has read a book on a laptop
Book buying and digital reading correlations
Figure 61: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
BOOK BUYING AND READING CONSIDERATIONS
Key points
Consumers most likely to consider buying more hardbacks in next year
Figure 62: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Quarter of print book buyers expect to buy an e-book in the next year
Figure 63: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
BOOK BUYING AND DISCOVERY
Key points
Almost half of book buyers use the online channel
Figure 64: Book buying and discovery, June 2012
Impulse reads?
A new lease of life for libraries?
Browsing in bookshops and then buying online is an issue
It’s good to talk
A positive year ahead for e-readers
E-book buyers less likely to browse, more influenced by reviews and recommendations
Figure 65: Book buying and discovery, by most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
ATTITUDES TOWARDS BOOKS, BOOKSHOPS AND READING
Key points
Consumers expect e-books to cost a lot less than print
Figure 66: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, June 2012
A stay of execution for print?
Consumers lukewarm on in-store e-book ordering and bundles
E-book buyers fail to feel the magic…
Figure 67: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
…but print buyers do
More tactile technology required?
Is it in the interest of publishers to subsidise digital reading technology?
BOOKS AND E-BOOKS TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Key points
Figure 68: Books and e-books target groups, June 2012
Bibliophiles
Traditionalists
Digitalists
Apathetic
Bibliophiles most likely to buy books but Digitalists not far behind
Figure 69: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by target groups, June 2012
Digitalists to continue leading migration to e-books
Figure 70: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by target groups, June 2012
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE FORECAST SCENARIOS
Figure 71: UK consumer book market forecast scenarios, 2012-17
APPENDIX – BOOK BUYING AND READING BEHAVIOUR
Figure 72: Most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 73: Next most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 74: Other book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 75: Least popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 76: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by next most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 77: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by other book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 78: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by least popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Book buying and reading and technology ownership
Figure 79: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by most popular technology ownership, June 2012
Figure 80: Book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, by personal technology ownership, June 2012
APPENDIX – BOOK BUYING AND READING CONSIDERATIONS
Figure 81: Most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 82: Next most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 83: Other book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 84: Least popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 85: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by next most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 86: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by other book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 87: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by least popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 88: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 89: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by next most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 90: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 91: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by other book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 92: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by least popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 93: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by most popular technology ownership, June 2012
Figure 94: Book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, by personal technology ownership, June 2012
APPENDIX – BOOK BUYING AND DISCOVERY
Figure 95: Most popular book buying and discovery, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 96: Next most popular book buying and discovery, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 97: Book buying and discovery, by most popular book buying and discovery, June 2012
Figure 98: Book buying and discovery, by next most popular book buying and discovery, June 2012
Figure 99: Book buying and discovery, by next most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 100: Book buying and discovery, by other book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 101: Book buying and discovery, by least popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 102: Book buying and discovery, by most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 103: Book buying and discovery, by next most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 104: Book buying and discovery, by other book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 105: Book buying and discovery, by least popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 106: Book buying and discovery, by most popular technology ownership, June 2012
Figure 107: Book buying and discovery, by personal technology ownership, June 2012
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS BOOKS, BOOKSHOPS AND READING
Figure 108: Most popular attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 109: Next most popular attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 110: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by most popular attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, June 2012
Figure 111: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by next most popular attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, June 2012
Figure 112: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by next most popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 113: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by other book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 114: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by least popular book buying and reading behaviour in the past 12 months, by type, June 2012
Figure 115: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by most popular book buying and discovery, June 2012
Figure 116: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by next most popular book buying and discovery, June 2012
Figure 117: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 118: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by next most popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 119: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by other book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 120: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by least popular book buying and reading considerations for the next 12 months, June 2012
Figure 121: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by most popular technology ownership, June 2012
Figure 122: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by personal technology ownership, June 2012
APPENDIX – BOOKS AND E-BOOKS TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
Figure 123: Books and e-books target groups, by demographics, June 2012
Figure 124: Book buying and discovery, by target groups, June 2012
Figure 125: Attitudes towards books, bookshops and reading, by target groups, June 2012