Breakfast Restaurant Trends - US - February 2012

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Overview
Breakfast restaurant trends subject to demographic population shifts
A closer look at limited-service breakfast
A closer look at full-service breakfast
Family restaurants account for largest share of breakfast menu items
Increasing number of breakfast menu items available
Fresh is a leading descriptor of breakfast menu items
Participation for breakfast at restaurants is solid
Frequency of breakfast restaurant usage is modest
Weekday breakfast usage edges out weekend use
Breakfast restaurant users spend less on weekdays
Coffee is the most commonly ordered breakfast menu item
Restaurant selection driven by quality attributes
Breakfast restaurant users show more interest in savory than sweet items
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Overview
The call for healthy breakfast
Figure 1: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
Breakfast menu opportunity to meet healthy calorie range
Limited-service breakfast opportunity for BFY menu items
Figure 2: Subway’s TV ad, Broken Barrier, January 2012
All-day breakfast
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: “Extend My Brand”
Trend: “Mood to Order”
MARKET SIZE
Key points
Uptick in breakfast restaurant sales
Figure 3: Breakfast restaurant sales*, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 4: Breakfast restaurant sales*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
Fan chart forecast
Figure 5: Fan chart of market value for breakfast restaurant sales, at current prices, 2006-16
Figure 6: Best and worst case forecast for breakfast restaurant sales, at current prices, 2011-16
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Overview
Recession fuels at-home dining trend
Figure 7: Incidence of cooking more at home to save money and improve nutrition, May 2011
Packaged food makes for convenient and economical at-home breakfast
MARKET DRIVERS
Economic uncertainty impacts use and innovation in beverages
Figure 8: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-October 2011
Figure 9: Median household income in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2000-10
Figure 10: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-December 2011
Figure 11: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007–November 2011
Figure 12: NRA performance indices, January 2009-November 2011
Figure 13: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008-November 2011
Young breakfast restaurant-goers are important to market
Figure 14: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by age, November 2011
Figure 15: Attitudes toward breakfast, by age, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 16: Attitudes toward diet and health, by age, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 17: Population, by age, 2006-16
Breakfast restaurant trends must oblige Hispanic consumers
Figure 18: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by Hispanic origin, November 2011
Figure 19: Attitudes toward breakfast, by Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 20: Attitudes toward diet and health, by Hispanic origin, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 21: Population, by Hispanic origin, 2006-16
The impact of the family consumer unit on restaurant sales
Figure 22: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Figure 23: Households, by presence of children, 2001-11
Figure 24: Average annual expenditures for food away from home, all consumer units vs. parents, 2005-09
Figure 25: Frequency of visit to favorite restaurants, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 26: Reason why the restaurant is favorite, April 2010-June 2011
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS—LIMITED-SERVICE BREAKFAST
Key points
Fast food drives breakfast usage of limited-service restaurants
Figure 27: Who fast food breakfast users dine with, by gender, April 2010-June 2011
Figure 28: Types of limited-service restaurants used for breakfast, November 2011
QSR breakfast
Value meals, dollar menus, and snack-size breakfast items expected at fast food
Figure 29: Interest in breakfast menu items or breakfast attributes, by fast food users, November 2011
Coffeehouse/donut shop breakfast users seeking gourmet coffee and sweet breakfast
Figure 30: Interest in breakfast menu items or breakfast attributes, by coffeehouse/donut shop users, November 2011
Fast casual breakfast
Fast casual breakfast users looking for premium beverages and unusual breakfasts
Figure 31: Interest in breakfast menu items or breakfast attributes, by fast casual users, November 2011
RESTAURANT ANALYSIS—FULL-SERVICE BREAKFAST
Key points
Full-service breakfast is a social affair
Figure 32: Who full-service breakfast users dine with, by age, April 2010-June 2011
Full-service breakfast offers an abundance of choice
Figure 33: Restaurant type by breakfast menu items, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Savory breakfast items in demand, but price is still important
Figure 34: Full-service restaurant users interest in breakfast menu items or breakfast attributes, November 2011
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS—RESTAURANT SEGMENT MENUS
Key points
Fastest growth in breakfast menus by nontraditional breakfast segments
Figure 35: Restaurant segment breakfast menu items, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Casual dining breakfast participation is nearly nonexistent
Figure 36: Restaurant segment breakfast menu items, by distinct number of restaurants, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Fine and casual dining dropping breakfast prices, while fast casual raises price
Figure 37: Restaurant segment breakfast menu items, by average price, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Despite mandates for menu transparency, calorie counts for breakfast are high
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS—TOP MENU ITEMS
Key points
The breakfast sandwich is king
Figure 38: Top 10 breakfast menu items, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Price
Figure 39: Top 10 breakfast menu items, by average price, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS—INGREDIENT CLAIM
Key points
Freshness is integral to breakfast menu
Figure 40: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on breakfast menus, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Highest price increases for menu items described as “golden”
Figure 41: Top 10 ingredient marketing claims on breakfast menus, by average price, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
Nutritional claims are underutilized on breakfast menu
Figure 42: Top 10 ingredient nutritional claims on breakfast menus, by incidence, Q3 2009-Q3 2011
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 OVERVIEW
Television ads
Full-service breakfast marketing strategies
Figure 43: Bob Evans TV ad, Morning Rush, November-December 2011
Figure 44: Denny’s TV ad, Time for Anything, May 2011
Figure 45: Golden Corral TV ad, Dawn, August 2011
Figure 46: IHOP TV ad, We Know You Know, January-March 2011
Limited-service breakfast marketing strategies
Figure 47: McDonald’s TV ad, A Premium Twist, January 2012
Figure 48: Taco Cabana TV ad, Lovingly Prepared Breakfast, August-September 2011
Digital marketing
Dunkin’ Donuts—Integrated marketing strategy
Figure 49: Dunkindonuts.com home page, January 2012
Social media
Email alerts
Figure 50: IHOP email alerts, January 2012
BREAKFAST RESTAURANT USAGE
Key points
Limited-service restaurants best full-service restaurant in breakfast usage
Figure 51: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, November 2011
Young age groups more likely to use restaurants for breakfast
Figure 52: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by age, November 2011
Larger families are strong breakfast restaurant users
Figure 53: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by presence of children in household, November 2011
BREAKFAST RESTAURANT USAGE—PROCUREMENT METHOD
Key points
Dining in for breakfast more popular than take out
Figure 54: Restaurant breakfast procurement method, November 2011
Usage of takeout decreases with age
Figure 55: Restaurant breakfast procurement method, by age, November 2011
Larger families are more likely to dine in for breakfast
Figure 56: Restaurant breakfast procurement method, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Take out supports limited-service usage, while dining in drives full-service breakfast
Figure 57: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by procurement method, November 2011
FREQUENCY OF BREAKFAST RESTAURANT USAGE
Key points
Weekly visits to restaurants for breakfast
Figure 58: Frequency of breakfast restaurant usage, November 2011
Men emerge as high-frequency breakfast restaurant users
Figure 59: Frequency of breakfast restaurant usage, by gender, November 2011
Younger age groups show above-average frequency of use for breakfast
Figure 60: Frequency of breakfast restaurant usage, by gender, November 2011
WHEN CONSUMERS ORDER BREAKFAST
Key points
Breakfast restaurant usage higher on weekdays
Figure 61: Time of day breakfast is ordered at restaurants on weekdays and weekends, November 2011
Weekday breakfast restaurant usage
Figure 62: Time of day breakfast is ordered on weekdays, by age, November 2011
Weekday breakfast ordered to go
Figure 63: Time of day breakfast is ordered on weekdays, by procurement method, November 2011
Weekend breakfast restaurant usage
Figure 64: Time of day breakfast is ordered on weekends, by age, November 2011
Equal usage of dining in and take out for weekend breakfasts
Figure 65: Time of day breakfast is ordered on weekends, by procurement method, November 2011
RESTAURANT BREAKFAST SPENDING
Key points
Average breakfast spending is higher on weekends
Figure 66: Breakfast spending on weekdays and weekends, November 2011
Breakfast spending on weekdays
Figure 67: Breakfast spending on weekdays, by gender, November 2011
Highest weekday breakfast spending occurs within the 25-34 age group
Figure 68: Breakfast spending on weekdays, by age, November 2011
Breakfast spending on weekends
Figure 69: Breakfast spending on weekends, by gender, November 2011
Restaurant-goers aged 25-44 yield highest average spend for weekend breakfast
Figure 70: Breakfast spending on weekends, by age, November 2011
MENU ITEMS ORDERED FOR BREAKFAST
Key points
Coffee tops the list of menu items ordered for breakfast
Figure 71: Menu items ordered for breakfast on weekdays and weekends, November 2011
Men order breakfast meats
Figure 72: Menu items ordered for breakfast, by gender, November 2011
Young breakfast restaurant users order all types of breakfast dishes
Figure 73: Menu items ordered for breakfast, by age, November 2011
Lower incomes turn to satisfying dishes
Figure 74: Menu items ordered for breakfast, by household income, November 2011
Large families order a balance of healthy and hearty breakfast items
Figure 75: Menu items ordered for breakfast, by presence of children in household, November 2011
RESTAURANT SELECTION FACTORS FOR BREAKFAST
Key points
Fresh, quality food drives decision in where to dine
Figure 76: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, November 2011
Men look for restaurants with early morning breakfasts
Figure 77: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, by gender, November 2011
Restaurant selection by young respondents less influenced by most attributes
Figure 78: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, by age, November 2011
Large families’ restaurant choice is influenced by healthy food and friendly staff
Figure 79: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Menu variety and atmosphere important for full-service, while portable items drive limited-service restaurant choice
Figure 80: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, by types of restaurants used for breakfast, November 2011
CONSUMER INTERESTS FOR BREAKFAST
Key points
Savory breakfast garners most interest from breakfast restaurant users
Figure 81: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, November 2011
Women looking for healthy breakfasts as well as sweet or snack-size offerings
Figure 82: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, by gender, November 2011
Menu interests vary by age
Figure 83: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, by age, November 2011
Families need more kids’ breakfast items
Figure 84: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, by presence of children in household, November 2011
Dollar menus and portable breakfast items popular for take out ordering
Figure 85: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, by types of restaurants used for breakfast, November 2011
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Hispanics are more likely breakfast restaurant users
Figure 86: Types of restaurants used for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
White respondents least likely to eat breakfast off-premise
Figure 87: Restaurant breakfast procurement method, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
Black restaurant-goers are high frequency breakfast users
Figure 88: Frequency of breakfast restaurant usage, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
Hispanics spend more for restaurant breakfast
Figure 89: Breakfast spending on weekdays, by Hispanic origin, November 2011
Figure 90: Breakfast spending on weekends, by Hispanic origin, November 2011
Hispanics seek out relaxing, comfortable restaurants for breakfast
Figure 91: Restaurant selection factors for breakfast, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2011
Hispanics interested in breakfast value meals, kids’ meals, and beverage menu items
Figure 92: Interest in breakfast menu items or attributes, by Hispanic origin, November 2011
APPENDIX—TRADE ASSOCIATIONS