Leisure Review - UK - December 2011

INTRODUCTION
Definition
Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: The value of the UK leisure industry, 2006-16
Market factors
Figure 2: Indexed trends in selected overhead costs for leisure operators, 2006-11
The consumer
Figure 3: Consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, October 2011
Figure 4: Leisure activity participation levels (ever do), October 2011
Figure 5: Leisure spending trends in the past 12 months, by sector, October 2011
Figure 6: Leisure spending intentions for the next 12 months, October 2011
Figure 7: Leisure consumer target groups, October 2011
What we think
ISSUES IN THE MARKET
What are consumers going to be looking for going forward?
What opportunities are being created by increasing social media usage?
What opportunities are being created by increased digital device ownership?
How can operators respond to rising overheads?
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Access All Areas
Trend: FSTR and HYPR
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Rising overheads put the squeeze on margins
Figure 8: Trends in the National Minimum Wage compared to the retail price index, 2006-11
Figure 9: Trends in food prices compared to all retail prices*, 2006-11
Figure 10: Trends in utility prices* paid by non-domestic consumers, 2006-11
Legislation and regulation
Planning policy
Carbon Reduction Commitment adds further costs
Business development trends
Private equity retains strong presence
Figure 11: Examples of private equity ownership in the leisure industry, December 2011
Rise of the zombie
Prepacks to be sent packing?
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Economic woes derail and delay recovery
Figure 12: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at constant 2011 prices, 2006-16
Figure 13: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2006-Q3 2011
Earnings stagnation piles on pressure for households
Figure 14: Trends in average full-time earnings, 2007-11
Consumers concerned about employment prospects
Figure 15: UK unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted), Q1 2006-Q2 2011*
Figure 16: UK unemployment rates, by age band (seasonally adjusted), 2006-11*
Consumer prices shoot up
Figure 17: Trends in the Consumer Price Index, August 2009-October 2011
Consumer confidence remains fragile
Figure 18: Trends in UK consumer confidence, January 2008-November 2011
Age group trends offer little comfort to leisure operators
Figure 19: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2006-16
Upmarket growth potential?
Figure 20: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2006-16
Retired and families lifestages set to grow
Figure 21: Forecast adult population trends, by lifestage, 2006-16
Household size polarises
Figure 22: UK households, by size, 2006-16
The impact of technology
Figure 23: Broadband penetration, 2006-11
Figure 24: Electronic products/services have at home, July 2009-July 2011
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Economic weakness takes its toll on industry
Figure 25: Value of the UK leisure* industry, 2006-11
Figure 26: Trends in the value of the UK leisure* industry, 2006-11
Forecast
Figure 27: Value forecast for UK leisure industry, 2006-16
Eating and drinking out accounts for two thirds of spend
Figure 28: Value of the UK leisure* industry, by segment, 2006-11
Figure 29: Value of the UK leisure* industry, by segment, 2011
The winners and losers: long term
Figure 30: Value growth rates for leisure industry sectors, 2006-11
The winners and losers: short term
Figure 31: Value growth rates for leisure industry sectors, 2010-11
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
Major players
Tate Gallery
Figure 32: Financial performance of Tate, 2006-11
Figure 33: Visitor statistics of Tate, 2010 and 2011
Cineworld Group plc
Figure 34: Financial performance of Cineworld plc, 2006-10
Whitbread plc
Figure 35: Financial performance of Whitbread plc, 2007-11
Figure 36: Whitbread plc, restaurant outlet numbers, 2009-11
Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd
Figure 37: Financial performance of Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd, 2006-10
Figure 38: Revenue, by segment for Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd, 2009 and 2010
Figure 39: Visitors, by segment for Merlin Entertainments Group Ltd, 2009 and 2010
Virgin Active
Figure 40: Financial performance of Virgin Active UK, 2006-10
Figure 41: Financial performance of New Esporta Holding Ltd, 2005-09
Zoological Society of London (ZSL)
Figure 42: Key financial data of the Zoological Society of London, 2006-10
JD Wetherspoon plc
Figure 43: Financial performance of JD Wetherspoon plc, 2007-11
LEISURE SPENDING TRENDS
Key points
Nearly two in five have cut back leisure spending in the past year
Figure 44: Consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, October 2011
Figure 45: Consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
THE BALANCE BETWEEN IN- AND OUT-OF-HOME LEISURE
Key points
More than two in five going out less than a year ago
Figure 46: Consumers’ division between in- and out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, October 2011
Figure 47: Consumers’ division between in- and out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
LEISURE ACTIVITY PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY LEVELS
Key points
A nation of gamblers?
Figure 48: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels, October 2011
Who gambles most often?
Who drinks most often in pubs and bars?
Who eats out most often in restaurants?
Who eats out most often in pubs and bars?
Who goes to the cinema most often?
Who goes to leisure centres and swimming pools most often?
Who goes to health and fitness clubs most often?
Who goes to live sport most often?
Who goes to nightclubs most often?
Who goes to cultural venues most often?
Who goes to music concerts and festivals most often?
Who goes to the theatre most often?
Who goes tenpin bowling most often?
Who goes to zoos/wildlife attractions most often?
Who goes to theme parks most often?
How much overlap is there between sectors?
Figure 49: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels (frequent), by most popular leisure activity participation and frequency levels (frequent), October 2011
Figure 50: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels (frequent), by next most popular leisure activity participation and frequency levels (frequent), October 2011
Better off have buoyed top-performing sectors
Figure 51: Leisure activity participation, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 52: Leisure activity participation, by consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, October 2011
Figure 53: Leisure activity participation, by consumers’ division between in- and out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, October 2011
LEISURE SPENDING TRENDS BY SECTOR
Key points
Restaurants and pubs most affected by cutbacks
Figure 54: Leisure spending trends in past 12 months, by sector, October 2011
Who cut back?
Who spent more?
Figure 55: Leisure activities net spending trend* in past 12 months, by sector, October 2011
LEISURE SPENDING INTENTIONS
Key points
Further pain in store for restaurants and pubs
Figure 56: Leisure spending intentions for the next 12 months, October 2011
Who’s planning to cut back?
Who’s planning to spend more?
Figure 57: Leisure activities forecast net spending trend* in next 12 months, by sector, October 2011
ATTITUDES TOWARDS LEISURE
Key points
Attention to detail and value are key in consumers’ minds
Figure 58: Attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, October 2011
Consumers like to talk about their experiences – good or bad
Three-quarters always on the lookout for special offers and deals
Keep it clean
Families cutting back on secondary spending
All-inclusive concept would find takers
Older, affluent prefer to drive, younger, students need transport links
Families look to free leisure to relieve pressure
Younger people use nights out to cheer up
Social media influence is growing
Leisure on the never-never
Service and hygiene particularly important to cultural venue visitors
Figure 59: Attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by most popular leisure activity participation levels, October 2011
Figure 60: Attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by next most popular leisure activity participation levels, October 2011
Figure 61: Attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by other leisure activity participation levels, October 2011
LEISURE CONSUMER TARGET GROUPS
Key points
Figure 62: Leisure consumer target groups, October 2011
Squeezed
Disengaged
Influenced
Quality Freaks
Transport-reliant
Nearly half of Squeezed have reduced leisure spending in the past year...
Figure 63: Consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by target groups, October 2011
...and to be going out less
Figure 64: Consumers’ division between in- and out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by target groups, October 2011
Influenced have the highest overall levels of participation
Figure 65: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels, by target groups, October 2011
APPENDIX – BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Figure 66: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2006-11
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 67: Value forecast for UK leisure industry, best and worst case scenarios, 2011-16
APPENDIX – LEISURE SPENDING TRENDS
Figure 68: Consumers' spending on out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by demographics, October 2011
APPENDIX – THE BALANCE BETWEEN IN– AND OUT-OF-HOME LEISURE
Figure 69: Consumers’ division between in- and out-of-home leisure compared to 12 months ago, by demographics, October 2011
APPENDIX – LEISURE ACTIVITY PARTICIPATION AND FREQUENCY LEVELS
Figure 70: Leisure activity participation in gambling and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 71: Leisure activity participation in drinking in pubs/bars and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 72: Leisure activity participation in eating out at restaurants and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 73: Leisure activity participation in eating out at pubs and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 74: Leisure activity participation in going to the cinema and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 75: Leisure activity participation in using a public leisure centre and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 76: Leisure activity participation in using a private health and fitness club and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 77: Leisure activity participation in attending live sports events and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 78: Leisure activity participation in going to a nightclub and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 79: Leisure activity participation in visiting a cultural venue and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 80: Leisure activity participation in going to music concerts/festivals and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 81: Leisure activity participation in going to the theatre and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 82: Leisure activity participation in going tenpin bowling and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 83: Leisure activity participation in visiting a zoo/wildlife attraction and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 84: Leisure activity participation in going to a theme park and frequency levels, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 85: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), by most popular leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), October 2011
Figure 86: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), by next most popular leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), October 2011
Figure 87: Leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), by other leisure activity participation and frequency levels (any participation), October 2011
APPENDIX – LEISURE SPENDING TRENDS BY SECTOR
Figure 88: Leisure spending trends in ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 89: Leisure spending trends in ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 90: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at restaurants’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 91: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at pubs’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 92: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the cinema’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 93: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a public leisure centre’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 94: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 95: Leisure spending trends in ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 96: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a nightclub’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 97: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 98: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 99: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 100: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go tenpin bowling’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 101: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 102: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a theme park’ in past 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 103: Leisure spending trends in ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 104: Leisure spending trends in ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 105: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at restaurants’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 106: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at pubs’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 107: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the cinema’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 108: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a public leisure centre’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 109: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 110: Leisure spending trends in ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 111: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a nightclub’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 112: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 113: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 114: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 115: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go tenpin bowling’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 116: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
Figure 117: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a theme park’ in past 12 months, by financial situation compared to a year or so ago, October 2011
APPENDIX – LEISURE SPENDING INTENTIONS
Figure 118: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 119: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 120: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at restaurants’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 121: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at pubs’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 122: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the cinema’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 123: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a public leisure centre’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 124: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 125: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 126: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a nightclub’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 127: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 128: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 129: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 130: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go tenpin bowling’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 131: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 132: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a theme park’ for the next 12 months, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 133: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 134: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 135: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at restaurants’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 136: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at pubs’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 137: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the cinema’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 138: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a public leisure centre’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 139: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 140: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 141: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a nightclub’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 142: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 143: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 144: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 145: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go tenpin bowling’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 146: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
Figure 147: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a theme park’ for the next 12 months, by financial situation over the next year or so, October 2011
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS LEISURE
Figure 148: Most popular agreement with attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 149: Next most popular agreement with attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 150: Other agreement with attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 151: Least popular agreement with attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by demographics, October 2011
APPENDIX – LEISURE CONSUMER TARGET GROUPS
Figure 152: Leisure consumer target groups, by demographics, October 2011
Figure 153: Leisure spending trends in ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 154: Leisure spending trends in ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 155: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at restaurants’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 156: Leisure spending trends in ‘Eat out at pubs’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 157: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the cinema’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 158: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a public leisure centre’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 159: Leisure spending trends in ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 160: Leisure spending trends in ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 161: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a nightclub’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 162: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 163: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 164: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 165: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go tenpin bowling’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 166: Leisure spending trends in ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 167: Leisure spending trends in ‘Go to a theme park’ in past 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 168: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Gamble (eg play Lottery, bet, play bingo, fruit machines etc)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 169: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Drink in pubs/bars’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 170: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at restaurants’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 171: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Eat out at pubs’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 172: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the cinema’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 173: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a public leisure centre’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 174: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Use a private health and fitness club (eg David Lloyd)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 175: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Attend live sports events (eg football, rugby, cricket)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 176: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a nightclub’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 177: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a cultural venue (eg museum, gallery)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 178: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to music concerts/festivals’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 179: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to the theatre (eg for plays, musicals)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 180: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go tenpin bowling’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 181: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Visit a zoo/wildlife attraction (eg London Zoo, aquariums)’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 182: Leisure spending intentions of ‘Go to a theme park’ for the next 12 months, by target groups, October 2011
Figure 183: Attitudes towards leisure time and visiting leisure venues, by target groups, October 2011