Holiday Review - UK - January 2011

ISSUES IN THE MARKET
Key issues
Definitions
Abbreviations
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
Trend: Power of One
Trend: Many Mes
MARKET IN BRIEF
Volume falls further in 2010
Independent days
Online and on the phone
Where – and who
Luxury, plans and preparations
INTERNAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
More than one holiday still the norm
Figure 1: Number of holidays booked (UK and overseas), by holidaymakers in the last 12 months, 2010
Most booked one month ahead or nearer
Figure 2: How far ahead bookings for holiday and short breaks were made, 2010
Saving money vs splashing out
Figure 3: Amount spent on holidays (5 or more nights) and short breaks (1-4 nights) abroad, 2010
Flights, trains, tunnel and taxes
Figure 4: Price and journey time comparison of air vs rail vs tunnel/car travel, travelling February 2011
Figure 5: Air Passenger Duty, as of November 2010
Collapses keep coming
Figure 6: ATOL tour operator failures/closures in the UK, 2010
BROADER MARKET ENVIRONMENT
Key points
Recession gives way to austerity
Figure 7: GDP, PDI, consumer expenditure and savings, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 8: GDP quarterly percentage change, Q1 2004-Q3 2010
Aging kids, aging adults
Figure 9: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2005-15
ABs and C2s
Figure 10: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2005-15
Singles’ significance
Figure 11: UK households, by size, 2005-15
Broadband penetration increasing
Figure 12: Broadband penetration, by demographics, 2004-10
Eurozone and the ‘far near’
Figure 13: Sterling exchange rates against selected currencies, 2005-10
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Business travel creeps back
Figure 14: Overseas travel volumes, by purpose, 2005-10
Holidays topped 2010 intentions
Figure 15: Expenditure priorities, 2005-10
STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES IN THE MARKET
Strengths
Multiple holidays remain
Leisure spending tops intentions
Average spending overseas rises
Demographic opportunities
Internet development
Weaknesses
All holidays low point
Collapses and consumer concern
Uncertainty abounds
Travel costs increase
Willingness to drop holidays high
WHO'S INNOVATING?
Key points
Burgeoning budget
Taxing times
Comparisons abound
Home front
Accommodation advances
Google gets involved
The present and future of travel
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Total holidays drop below 94 million
Figure 16: Domestic and overseas holidays and expenditure, 2005-15
Domestic average down, overseas average up
Figure 17: Average spend per trip, 2005-15
Forecasts
Figure 18: Value forecast of domestic holidays, 2005-15
Figure 19: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, 2005-15
Figure 20: Value forecast of overseas holidays, 2005-15
Figure 21: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, 2005-15
Figure 22: Value forecast of all holidays, 2005-15
Figure 23: Volume forecast of all holidays, 2005-15
Forecast methodology
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Independent increase
Figure 24: Inclusive holidays versus independent holidays abroad, by volume, 2005-10
Non-flight growth
Figure 25: Total overseas holidays, by mode of transport, 2005-10
Europe dominant
Figure 26: Outbound holiday visits, by region visited, 2005-10
Spain stays number one
Figure 27: Outbound holiday visits, by country visited, 2005-10
MARKET SHARE
Key points
Consolidation and competition
Figure 28: Overseas passengers licensed to UK travel companies, December 2010
COMPANIES AND PRODUCTS
TUI
Figure 29: TUI Travel Plc UK and Ireland key financials, 2009 and 2010
Thomas Cook
Figure 30: Thomas Cook Group Plc annual results – UK and Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2008-09
Figure 31: Thomas Cook Group Plc half-year results – UK and Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2009-10
Figure 32: Thomas Cook Group Plc full-year results – UK and Ireland, India and Middle East segment, 2009-10
British Airways (BA)
Figure 33: British Airways Group annual results, 2009-10
Figure 34: British Airways Group half-year results, 2009-10
easyJet
Figure 35: easyJet annual results, 2009-10
Ryanair
Figure 36: Annual results of Ryanair, 2009-10
Figure 37: Half-year Results of Ryanair, 2009-10
P&O Ferries
Figure 38: P&O Ferries Division Holdings Limited annual results, 2008-09
Eurostar/Eurotunnel
Figure 39: Eurotunnel annual financials, 2008-09
Figure 40: Eurotunnel half-year financials, 2009-10
Figure 41: Eurostar annual financials, 2008-09
Figure 42: Eurostar half-year financials, 2009-10
Expedia
Figure 43: Expedia.com Limited UK annual results, 2008-09
TripAdvisor
Figure 44: TripAdvisor annual results, 2008-09
InterContinental Hotels Group
Figure 45: InterContinental Hotels Group Plc annual results – EMEA segment, 2008-09
Figure 46: InterContinental Hotels Group Plc half-year results – EMEA segment, 2009-10
CHANNELS TO MARKET
Key points
Internet for information
Figure 47: Sources used to get information for holidays and short breaks, 2010
Travel agents up but self-arranging top
Figure 48: How holidays were booked, 2010
HOLIDAYS TAKEN
Key points
Who goes on what?
Figure 49: Holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
UK for cost
Europe versus rest of world
No goes and age concern
HOLIDAY FREQUENCY
Key points
Topping up and trading down
Figure 50: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2010
European dominance
Figure 51: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by type of holidays taken, November 2010
HOLIDAY EXPENDITURE
Key points
Overseas, over UK spend
Figure 52: Domestic and overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, November 2010
Value UK
Income and going away
More trips, more money
Figure 53: Domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months, by number of UK holidays taken in past 12 months, November 2010
Figure 54: Overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by number of holidays taken overseas in past 12 months, November 2010
HOLIDAYS TAKEN OVERSEAS
Key points
Beach breaks top choice
Figure 55: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Family findings
Age and accommodation
All-inclusive attraction
Cost and type
Figure 56: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by overseas holiday spending (£0-1,999) in the last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 57: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by overseas holiday spending (£2,000+) in the last 12 months, November 2010
OVERSEAS HOLIDAY INTENTIONS
Key points
Plans and popularity
Figure 58: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Sun seeking supreme
Who plans what else?
The no-goers
Intention vs experience
Figure 59: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 60: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2010
ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAYS
Key points
Holiday opinions
Figure 61: Attitudes towards holidays, November 2010
Age and getting away
Luxury, necessary, a right?
Soar away sun
Travel guilt vs action
Attitudes and types
Figure 62: Attitudes towards holidays, by any holidays, independent holidays and package holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 63: Attitudes towards holidays, by other holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAY EXPENDITURE
Key points
Possible reactions
Figure 64: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, November 2010
Go less or cut back elsewhere?
Cut out and look to the UK
Booking behaviour
Domestic holidays and spending plans
Figure 65: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by domestic holiday spending (£0-999) in the last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 66: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by domestic holiday spending (£1,000+) in the last 12 months, November 2010
Overseas spending and future intentions
Figure 67: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by overseas holiday spending (£0-1,999) in the last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 68: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by overseas holiday spending (£2,000+) in the last 12 months, November 2010
APPENDIX – MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Figure 69: Value forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
Figure 70: Volume forecast of domestic holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
Figure 71: Value forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
Figure 72: Volume forecast of overseas holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
Figure 73: Value forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
Figure 74: Volume forecast of all holidays, best- and worst-case scenarios, 2010-15
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS TAKEN
Figure 75: Holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 76: UK and Europe Holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 77: North America and Asia holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 78: Other holidays taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – HOLIDAY FREQUENCY
Figure 79: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by type of holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 80: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by UK and Europe holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 81: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by Europe, North America and Asia holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 82: Number of holidays taken in past 12 months, by Asia and ‘elsewhere’ holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 83: Number of holidays (1-3+ UK, 1 Europe) taken in past 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 84: Number of holidays (2+ Europe, 1-2+ elsewhere) taken in past 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – HOLIDAY EXPENDITURE
Figure 85: Domestic holiday spending (£0-999) in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 86: Domestic holiday spending (£1,000-3,000+) in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 87: Overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – HOLIDAYS TAKEN OVERSEAS
Figure 88: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 89: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (UK and Europe), November 2010
Figure 90: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (Europe, North America and Asia), November 2010
Figure 91: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (Asia, ‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 92: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (1-3+ UK, 1 Europe), November 2010
Figure 93: Type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (2-3+ Europe, 1-2+ elsewhere) November 2010
Figure 94: Most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 95: Next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – OVERSEAS HOLIDAY INTENTIONS
Figure 96: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 97: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (UK and Europe), November 2010
Figure 98: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (North America and Asia), November 2010
Figure 99: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by holidays taken in last 12 months (‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 100: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (1-3+ UK, 1 Europe), November 2010
Figure 101: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (2-3+ Europe,1-2+ ‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 102: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months (£0-999), November 2010
Figure 103: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by domestic holiday spending in the last 12 months (£1,000+), November 2010
Figure 104: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months (£0-1,999), November 2010
Figure 105: Overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by overseas holiday spending in the last 12 months (£2,000+), November 2010
Figure 106: Most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 107: Next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAYS
Figure 108: Attitudes towards holidays, by holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 109: Attitudes towards holidays, by holidays taken in last 12 months (UK and Europe), November 2010
Figure 110: Attitudes towards holidays, by holidays taken in last 12 months (North America and Asia), November 2010
Figure 111: Attitudes towards holidays, by holidays taken in last 12 months (Asia and ‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 112: Attitudes towards holidays, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (1-3+ UK, 1 Europe) November 2010
Figure 113: Attitudes towards holidays, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (2-3+ Europe, 1-2+ ‘elsewhere’) November 2010
Figure 114: Attitudes towards holidays, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 115: Attitudes towards holidays, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 116: Attitudes towards holidays, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 117: Most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 118: Next most popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 119: Other attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 120: Least popular attitudes towards holidays, by demographics, November 2010
APPENDIX – ATTITUDES TOWARDS HOLIDAY EXPENDITURE
Figure 121: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2010
Figure 122: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2010
Figure 123: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other attitudes towards holidays, November 2010
Figure 124: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by least popular attitudes towards holidays, November 2010
Figure 125: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by holidays taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 126: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by holidays taken in last 12 months (UK and Europe), November 2010
Figure 127: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by holidays taken in last 12 months (North America and Asia), November 2010
Figure 128: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by holidays taken in last 12 months (‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 129: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (1-3 UK, 1+ Europe), November 2010
Figure 130: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by number of holidays taken in past 12 months (2-3 Europe, 1-2+ ‘elsewhere’), November 2010
Figure 131: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 132: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular type of overseas holiday taken in last 12 months, November 2010
Figure 133: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 134: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by next most popular overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 135: How holiday habits/plans would change if financial situation worsened, by other overseas holiday intentions for next 12 months, November 2010
Figure 136: Most popular holiday habit/plan changes if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2010
Figure 137: Next most popular holiday habit/plan changes if financial situation worsened, by demographics, November 2010