Made to Order Smoothies and Shakes - US - December 2010

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Mintel Menu Insights
Consumer survey data
Advertising creative
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Economic uncertainty causes consumer price-sensitivity
Consumer frugality could impact market’s future
Price-sensitivity fosters market competition
Age, presence of kids, Hispanic origin are influential demographics
Connection between obesity and sugary beverages
Trends in made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items
Marketing MTO smoothies and shakes
Restaurants divide: Team Smoothie vs. Team Shake
Growth in restaurant smoothie usage—albeit still infrequent
Where smoothie drinkers go for smoothies
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
 OVERVIEW
Give consumers reason to “think” about smoothies and shakes
Location, location, location
Suggestive selling and promotion
Customizable innovation
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Trend: Fit or Fat
Figure 1: Diet- related reasons consumers aren’t ordering smoothies at restaurants, September 2009 and September 2010
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
 OVERVIEW
Forgoing high-priced smoothies and shakes
Smoothie drinkers trading down
DIY smoothies
CPG functional beverages
MARKET DRIVERS
Recession causes restaurant sales to suffer but outlook improves
Figure 2: NRA performance indices, January 2009-September 2010
Figure 3: Adjusted foodservice and drinking places sales, January 2008-September 2010
Rising food prices
Figure 4: Consumer price index for food, September 2008-September 2010
Underemployment and unemployment impact spending
Figure 5: Unemployment and underemployment rates, January 2007-September 2010
Cash at hand remains limited
Figure 6: Real personal disposable income, January 2007-August 2010
Consumer confidence still rattled
Figure 7: Consumer Sentiment Index, March 2007-September 2010
Aging population negatively impacts market sales
Figure 8: Population aged 18 or older, 2005-15
Kids fuel demand for made-to-order smoothies and shakes
Figure 9: Households by presence of children, 1999-2009
Market usage strong among the fastest-growing ethnic groups
Figure 10: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2005-15
The battle of the bulge
Figure 11: Age-adjusted prevalence of being overweight, obese, or extremely obese, among adults aged 20 or older, 1988-2008
Obesity and beverage consumption—there’s a connection
Figure 12: Changes in consumption of smoothies and shakes at restaurants, January 2010
Figure 13: Future expectations to change consumption of smoothies and shakes at restaurants, January 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: SMOOTHIES AND SHAKES
Key points
Smoothies outnumber shakes on restaurant menus
Shakes remain a stalwart restaurant menu item
Figure 14: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Smoothies command top price points
Figure 15: Average price of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Fruit is the key ingredient to smoothies and shakes
Figure 16: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by flavor, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: MARKETING AND NUTRITIONAL CLAIMS
Key points
Marketing real, fresh smoothies and shakes
Figure 17: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Freshness drives price point
Figure 18: Average price of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by marketing claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Nonfat tops nutritional claim list
Figure 19: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by nutritional claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
There’s money in nutritional claims
Figure 20: Average price of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items, by nutritional claim, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: RESTAURANT SEGMENTS
Key points
QSRs dominate smoothie and shake menu items
Figure 21: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Figure 22: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items by restaurant segment, by type, Q3 2010
Prices of smoothies and shakes
Figure 23: Average price of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items by restaurant segment, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
MENU INSIGHTS ANALYSIS: RESTAURANT INNOVATORS
Key points
Smoothie King and Cheeburger Cheeburger offer depth of choice
Figure 24: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items by top 20 restaurants, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Restaurants pick sides: Team Smoothie vs. Team Shake
Figure 25: Incidence of made-to-order smoothie and shake menu items by top 20 restaurants, by type, Q3 2010
RESTAURANT USAGE BY SMOOTHIE DRINKERS
Key points
McDonald’s smoothies have broad reach
Figure 26: Restaurants used for getting smoothies, September 2009 and September 2010
More affluent most likely to use smoothie/juice bars
Figure 27: Restaurants used for getting smoothies, by household income, September 2010
Restaurants that offer other “treats” are more likely to be used by households with kids
Figure 28: Restaurants used for getting smoothies, by presence of children in HH, September 2010
Hispanic show preferences for smoothie shops
Figure 29: Restaurants used for getting smoothies, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
COMPANY PROFILE: MCDONALD’S
 OVERVIEW
Continued success
Figure 30: McDonald’s U.S. systemwide same-store sales growth, percentage increase, 2005-10
Finding the value of smoothies
Figure 31: Average smoothie price, McDonald’s vs. leading smoothie shop operators, Q3 2010
COMPANY PROFILE: JAMBA JUICE
 OVERVIEW
Sales plummet in 2009
Figure 32: Jamba Juice company-owned same store sales growth, percentage increase, 2005-10
The road to becoming a lifestyle brand
Menu expansion
Figure 33: Jamba Juice menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
CPG commercialization
COMPANY PROFILE: SMOOTHIE KING
 OVERVIEW
Taking the plunge with new prepared food menu items
Figure 34: Smoothie King menu items, by type, Q3 2008-Q3 2010
Retail expansion continues
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 OVERVIEW
Figure 35: Select restaurant advertisers*, by segment, 2008 and 2009
Promotional efforts focus on indulgence, quality and health
Sonic promotes indulgence
Figure 36: Sonic’s television ad, two guys scream for real ice cream, May 2010
Figure 37: Brand analysis of Sonic’s beverage platform, 2010
McDonald’s focus on quality
Figure 38: McDonald’s television ad, real fruit smoothies, July 2010
Figure 39: Brand analysis of McDonald’s beverage platform, 2010
Smoothie King defined by health
Figure 40: Smoothie King television ad, August 2010
Figure 41: Brand analysis of Smoothie King, 2010
Smoothie shops utilize alternative advertising efforts
Jamba Juice engages with social media
Figure 42: Jambajuice.com monthly visits, October 2009-October 2010
THE SMOOTHIE DRINKER
Key points
Foodservice smoothies are most popular
Figure 43: Smoothie usage, September 2010
Core MTO smoothie users—young; affluent; families; and Asians
Figure 44: Incidence of smoothie consumption from a restaurant, by select demographics, September 2010
REASONS FOR DRINKING SMOOTHIES
Key points
Refreshing and healthful are leading attributes driving usage
Figure 45: Main reason for drinking smoothies, September 2009 and September 2010
Women use smoothies for satiation; men drink smoothies for energy
Figure 46: Main reason for drinking smoothies, by gender, September 2010
Older consumers drink smoothies for refreshment and convenience
Figure 47: Main reasons for drinking smoothies, by age, September 2010
CONSUMER ATTITUDES TOWARD RESTAURANT SMOOTHIES
Key points
Restaurant smoothies are in demand
Figure 48: Attitudes toward smoothies offered at restaurants, by gender, September 2010
Younger consumers appreciate health positioning of smoothie shops
Figure 49: Attitudes toward smoothies offered at restaurants, by age, September 2010
Households with kids more apt to think QSR smoothies are just as good
Figure 50: Attitudes toward smoothies offered at restaurants, by presence of children in HH, September 2010
Hispanics say smoothie shop smoothies are healthier than QSRs
Figure 51: Attitudes toward smoothies offered at restaurants, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
REASONS CONSUMERS AREN’T ORDERING RESTAURANT SMOOTHIES
Key points
High sugar and high calories detour usage of smoothies
Figure 52: Reasons consumers aren’t ordering smoothies at restaurants, September 2009 and September 2010
Women turned off by high prices of smoothies
Figure 53: Reasons consumers aren’t ordering smoothies at restaurants, by gender, September 2010
High sugar impacts smoothie usage of over-55s
Figure 54: Reasons consumers aren’t ordering smoothies at restaurants, by age, September 2010
Main deterrent for households with more kids is the high cost of smoothies
Figure 55: Reasons consumers aren’t ordering smoothies at restaurants, by presence of children in HH, September 2010
RESTAURANT SMOOTHIE INGREDIENTS
Key points
Base ingredients
Figure 56: Base ingredients for smoothies, September 2009 and September 2010
Women prefer fruit and yogurt smoothies
Figure 57: Base ingredients for smoothies, by gender, September 2010
Hispanics more likely to drink fruit and juice smoothies
Figure 58: Base ingredients for smoothies, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
Fruit ingredients
Figure 59: Fruit ingredients for smoothies, September 2009 and September 2010
Hispanics have greater acceptance for mango and orange flavor smoothies
Figure 60: Fruit ingredients for smoothies, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
“Add-in” ingredients
Figure 61: Add-in ingredients for smoothies, September 2009 and September 2010
Under-25s most likely to order “add-ins” for their smoothie
Figure 62: Add-in ingredients for smoothies, by age, September 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Enhancers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Enrichers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Excluders
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 63: Smoothie shop clusters, September 2010
Figure 64: Smoothie usage, by smoothie shop clusters, September 2010
Figure 65: Main reason for drinking smoothies, by smoothie shop clusters, September 2010
Figure 66: Base ingredients for smoothies, by smoothie shop clusters, September 2010
Figure 67: Add-in ingredients for smoothies, by smoothie shop clusters, September 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 68: Smoothie shop clusters, by gender, September 2010
Figure 69: Smoothie shop clusters, by age group, September 2010
Figure 70: Smoothie shop clusters, by household income, September 2010
Figure 71: Smoothie shop clusters, by race, September 2010
Figure 72: Smoothie shop clusters, by Hispanic origin, September 2010
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM GROUPS: LIGHT, MEDIUM AND HEAVY USERS
Balanced user frequency
Figure 73: Frequency of restaurant smoothie consumption, September 2010
Heavy smoothie drinkers use a variety of restaurants
Figure 74: Restaurants used for getting smoothies, by user frequency, September 2010
Fast food smoothies are welcomed by heavy smoothie drinkers
Figure 75: Attitudes toward smoothies offered at restaurants, by user frequency, September 2010
Light users don’t know how their smoothies are made
Figure 76: Base ingredients for smoothies, by user frequency, September 2010
Add-ins most popular with heavy users
Figure 77: Add-in ingredients for smoothies, by user frequency, September 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS