Shelf-stable Meals and Meal Kits - US - September 2010

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Recession yields mixed results for shelf-stable meals
Market size and forecast
Market drivers
Competition for the food dollar from other “economical” meals
Shelf-stable meals’ health and taste perceptions a hurdle in expanding user base
Grocery stores command lion’s share of market
Interest in SS meals cools in natural channel
Manufacturer and brand trends—top three dominate
Selected brand analysis
Dry macaroni and cheese
Prepared pasta dishes
Prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce
Microwaveable package dinners
Prepared dinners/entrées
Innovation driven by claims for convenience, purity, and environmentally friendly positioning
The shelf-stable meal and meal kit consumer
Consumers willing to pay more for organic and premium shelf-stable meals
Taste of shelf-stable meal is the biggest barrier in growing consumer base
Custom consumer groups: the impact of gender and income
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
 TREND: RE-TECHING THE PAST
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Return to restaurants in 2010 negatively affects sales
Mature category is challenged to attract new users
Health and taste perception hamper growth
Hispanic consumers important for future growth
Sales of shelf-stable meals and kits
Figure 1: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 2: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-15
Walmart sales
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Households with children drive growth
Figure 3: Usage of complete packaged dinner mixes, by presence and number of children, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 4: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by presence and number of children, July 2010
Figure 5: Households, by presence of children, 1999-2009
Fast growing Hispanic households mean more sales
Figure 6: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2005-15
Figure 7: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2009-March 2010
Figure 8: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Taste concerns may inhibit marketers from promoting healthier fare
Figure 9: Attributes diet watchers look for in food, 2006/07 and 2008/09
Recession benefit on shelf-stable meal sales less than expected
Figure 10: Impact of recession on consumption of shelf-stable and frozen meals, by type, July 2010
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Competition from within—private label
Growing battle for shelf space—shelf-stable side dishes
Quick and tasty—competition from refrigerated frozen aisles
External competition outside the retail space
QSR fighting back
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Macaroni and cheese was saving grace during 2008-10
Segment sales
Figure 11: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, by segment, 2008 and 2010
Figure 12: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and kits, by segment, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—DRY MACARONI AND CHEESE
Key points
Innovative line extensions encourage steady growth
Benefiting from recession
Sales and forecast
Figure 13: FDMx sales and forecast of dry macaroni and cheese, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PREPARED PASTA DISHES
Key points
Expand sales by reaching out to more adults
Sales and forecast
Figure 14: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared pasta dishes, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PREPARED CHILI AND SLOPPY JOE SAUCE
Key points
Mature market lacks innovation
Make sloppy joe and chili convenient for lunch
Sales and forecast
Figure 15: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—MICROWAVEABLE PACKAGE DINNERS
Key points
Healthy microwaveable meals offer alternative to fast food
Sales and forecast
Figure 16: FDMx sales and forecast of microwaveable package dinners, at current prices, 2005-15
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—PREPARED DINNERS/ENTRÉES
Key points
Microwaveable packaging beats the can for individual meals
Sales and forecast
Figure 17: FDMx sales and forecast of prepared dinners/entrées, at current prices, 2005-15
RETAIL CHANNELS
Key points
Mass merchandisers nibbling at share
Figure 18: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by gender, July 2010
Sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by channel
Figure 19: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals, by retail channel, 2008 and 2010
RETAIL CHANNELS—SUPERMARKETS
Key points
Supermarkets finding success in variety and value
Supermarkets stand up to fast food
Figure 20: Supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2005-10
RETAIL CHANNELS—DRUG AND MASS
Key points
Walmart and Target are aggressively pursuing discount shoppers
Figure 21: Drug and mass* sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, 2005-10
NATURAL CHANNEL/SPINS
Key points
Sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits in the natural channel
Figure 22: Natural supermarket shelf-stable meals and meal kits, at current prices, 2008-10
Figure 23: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2008-10
Implications
Natural channel sales by segment
Figure 24: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by segment, 2008 and 2010
Leading brands in segments of note
Natural channel sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits by organic
Figure 25: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by organic vs. non-organic, 2008 and 2010
Made with organic ingredients also strong
Natural channel sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kit segments by organic
Figure 26: Natural supermarket sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by segment, by organic vs. non-organic, 2008-10
LEADING COMPANIES
Key points
Kraft Foods keeps products fresh
ConAgra Foods provides variety
Private label fails to thrive in a down economy
Figure 27: FDMx sales of shelf-stable meals and meal kits, by leading manufacturers, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—DRY MACARONI AND CHEESE
Key points
Value and versatility are the key
Annie's Homegrown catering to better-for-you consumers
Manufacturer and brand shares
Figure 28: FDMx brand sales of dry macaroni and cheese, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—PREPARED PASTA DISHES
Key points
Leaders struggle to find place in a health-driven market
Manufacturer and brand shares
Figure 29: FDMx brand sales of prepared pasta dishes, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—PREPARED CHILI AND SLOPPY JOE SAUCE
Key points
Current innovations need to push further
Bush Brothers & Company pulling out?
Manufacturer and brand shares
Figure 30: FDMx brand sales of prepared chili and sloppy joe sauce, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—MICROWAVEABLE PACKAGE DINNERS
Key points
Healthy image + international flavors = winning combination
Private labels attract price-sensitive consumers
Manufacturer and brand shares
Figure 31: FDMx brand sales of microwaveable package dinners, 2009 and 2010
BRAND SHARE—PREPARED DINNERS/ENTRÉES
Key point
Mary Kitchen makes meat and potatoes easy
Private label successful with low-cost meals
Manufacturer and brand shares
Figure 32: FDMx brand sales of prepared dinners/entrées, 2009 and 2010
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
Overview
Figure 33: Number of new shelf-stable meal or meal kit product introductions, by subcategory, 2005-10
Figure 34: Top 10 claims in new shelf-stable meals and meal kit products, 2005-10
Convenient preparation
Convenient packaging
Purity claims
Ethical and environmentally friendly packaging
Innovative companies
Figure 35: Number of new shelf-stable meal or meal kit product introductions, by company, 2005-10
Innovations by segment
Instant noodle, pasta and rice—allergen-free claims
Figure 36: New product claims in instant noodle, pasta and rice, 2005-10
Meal kits sport international flair
Figure 37: New product claims in meal kits, 2005-10
Prepared meals for vegetarians
Figure 38: New product claims in prepared meals, 2005-10
MARKETING STRATEGIES
 BRAND AND MERCHANDISING STRATEGIES
Shelf-stable meals go after lunch dollars
Healthy Choice Fresh Mixers
Figure 39: Healthy Choice Fresh Mixers, TV ad, 2010
Hormel Compleats
Figure 40: Hormel Compleats, TV ad, 2010
Marie Callender's Home-Style Creations
Figure 41: Marie Callender's Home-Style Creations, TV ad, 2009
Targeting more than little kids
Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Cheddar Explosion
Figure 42: Kraft Macaroni & Cheese Cheddar Explosion, TV ad, 2010
Kraft Homestyle Macaroni & Cheese
Figure 43: Kraft Homestyle Macaroni & Cheese, TV ad, 2010
Chef Boyardee Big Beef Ravioli
Figure 44: Chef Boyardee Big Beef Ravioli, TV ad, 2010
 ONLINE INITIATIVES
Hormel Stagg Chili
Kraft
Annie’s Homegrown
ConAgra Foods and Campbell Soup Co.
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION OF SHELF-STABLE MEALS AND MIXES
Key points
Overview trends
Figure 45: Household consumption of shelf-stable meals and mixes, 2004-10
Household consumption demographics
Figure 46: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by household income, February 2009-March 2010
Brands of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten by household
Figure 47: Brands of complete packaged dinner mixes eaten by household, February 2009-March 2010
MEAL CONSUMPTION AND PREPARATION
Key points
Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
Figure 48: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by gender, July 2010
Figure 49: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by age, July 2010
Number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten
Figure 50: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by age, July 2010
INTEREST IN NEW MEAL CONCEPTS
Key points
High levels of interest in new concepts
Figure 51: Level of interest in various types of shelf-stable meal concepts, July 2010
Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
Figure 52: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by age, July 2010
Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
Figure 53: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by age, July 2010
SOURCE OF MEALS—RETAILER TYPE
Key points
Grocery channels dominate—but not for younger consumers
Figure 54: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by age, July 2010
Figure 55: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by household income, July 2010
REASONS FOR NOT USING SHELF-STABLE MEALS
Figure 56: Reasons for not using shelf-stable meals, by gender, July 2010
HOW FAMILIES USE SHELF-STABLE MEALS
Key points
Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals
Figure 57: Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals, July 2010
Attitudes towards food and cooking
Figure 58: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by age, July 2010
Figure 59: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by presence and number of children, July 2010
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
Figure 60: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
Figure 61: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
Figure 62: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Source of meals—retailer type
Figure 63: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
Attitudes towards food and cooking
Figure 64: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Diversifiers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Savers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Traditionalists
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 65: Shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
Figure 66: Level of interest in various types of shelf-stable meal concepts, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
Figure 67: Attitudes towards food and cooking, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
Figure 68: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by shelf-stable clusters, July 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 69: Shelf-stable clusters, by gender, July 2010
Figure 70: Shelf-stable clusters, by age, July 2010
Figure 71: Shelf-stable clusters, by household income, July 2010
Figure 72: Shelf-stable clusters, by race, July 2010
Figure 73: Shelf-stable clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2010
Cluster methodology
CUSTOM CONSUMER TABLES—IMPACT OF GENDER AND INCOME
Key points
High-earning women seek meal kits
Figure 74: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by gender and household income, July 2010
Number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten
Figure 75: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by gender and household income, July 2010
High-earning men eating more shelf-stable meals during recession
Figure 76: Impact of recession on consumption of shelf-stable and frozen meals, by type, by gender and household income, July 2010
Willingness to pay more for interesting new concepts
Figure 77: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by gender and household income, July 2010
Types of international meals interested in seeing in food stores
Figure 78: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by gender and household income, July 2010
Source of meals by retailer type
Figure 79: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by gender and household income, July 2010
Adult opinion on kids and shelf-stable meals
Figure 80: Parent opinions on kids and shelf-stable meals, by gender and household income, July 2010
IRI/BUILDERS—KEY HOUSEHOLD PURCHASE MEASURES
 OVERVIEW OF SS DINNERS
 SS PREPARED PASTA DISHES
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS prepared pasta dishes
Brand map
Figure 81: Brand map, selected brands of SS prepared pasta dishes buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 82: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS prepared pasta dishes, by household penetration, 2009*
 SS PREPARED CHILI
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS prepared chili
Brand map
Figure 83: Brand map, selected brands of SS prepared chili buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 84: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS prepared chili, by household penetration, 2009*
 SS MICROWAVEABLE PACKAGE DINNERS
Consumer insights on key purchase measures—SS microwaveable package dinners
Brand map
Figure 85: Brand map, selected brands of SS microwaveable package dinners buying rate, by household penetration, 2009*
Brand leader characteristics
Key purchase measures
Figure 86: Key purchase measures for the top brands of SS microwaveable package dinner, by household penetration, 2009*
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Household consumption demographics
Figure 87: Household consumption of complete packaged dinner mixes, by product type, by age, February 2009-March 2010
Types of meals eaten by specific family members
Figure 88: Types of meals eaten by specific family members, July 2010
Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household
Figure 89: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by household income, July 2010
Figure 90: Type of meal/meal preparation most used in household, by region, July 2010
Figure 91: Mean number of shelf-stable and frozen meals eaten in household in past month, by type, by household income, July 2010
Interest in new meal concepts
Figure 92: Willingness to pay more for shelf-stable meals concepts interested in, by household income, July 2010
Figure 93: Types of international shelf-stable meals interested in seeing in food stores, by household income, July 2010
Source of meals by retailer type
Figure 94: Where shelf-stable meals are normally bought, by presence and number of children, July 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS