Mobile Phones - US - June 2010

SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Social Media
Advertising clips
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
New growth potential as a mature industry faces transition
New models, new competition
From voice to web to apps
Android kicks up a storm in platform war
4G at last
Motorola clings to lead in installed base
Apple and Android lead in social media buzz about apps and OS
Strong potential for brand confusion in marketing crush
Younger, higher-income respondents lead advanced phone usage
Majority spent less than $60 on phone
Younger consumers driven by features more than shape of phone
INSIGHTS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Introduction
Ker-ching! Adding up the value of slaying dedicated handhelds
The power of social networking in your hand
TV moves from PCs to phones
It pays to accessorize
INSPIRE INSIGHTS
Customization
What's it about?
What we've seen
Addressing individual needs in every phone
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
High penetration leads to stabilizing growth
Smartphone, 4G transition to drive future sales
Figure 1: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for mobile phones, current prices, 2004-14
Figure 2: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for mobile phones, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
Figure 3: Total U.S. unit shipments and average price for mobile phones, 2004-10
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
PCs more and more portable
Multiple functions lead to new competition
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Key points
Smartphones on the rise, basic phones in decline
Figure 4: U.S. supplier sales of mobile phones at current prices, by segment, 2008 and 2010
Figure 5: U.S. mobile phone unit shipments, by segment, 2008 and 2010
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—SMARTPHONES
Key points
iPhone kicks off smartphone craze
More than just a phone
Platform consolidation on the way
Figure 6: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for smarpthones, at current prices, 2004-14
Figure 7: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for smartphones, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
Figure 8: U.S. unit shipments and average wholesale prices of smartphones, at current prices, 2004-10
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE—BASIC PHONES
Key points
Basic phones lose ground as carriers look beyond voice
The carrier’s darling
Basic usage still the norm
Figure 9: Attitudes toward basic cell phone usage, by gender, age and household income, November 2008-December 2009
Potential sales via multiple phone ownership
Figure 10: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for basic phones, at current prices, 2004-10
Figure 11: U.S. supplier sales and forecast for basic phones, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2004-14
Figure 12: U.S. unit shipments and average wholesale prices for basic phones, at current prices, 2004-10
RETAIL CHANNELS
Available at (every) store very near you
Figure 13: Number of U.S. stores run by cell phone service providers and related companies, 2010
Online also plays a critical role
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
Continued shift from voice to web
An end to the all-you-can-eat data buffet?
See and say
Figure 14: Interest in video calling on cell phone, by gender, age and household income, March 2010
Platform wars
Figure 15: Platform share of installed base of smartphones, among five leading brands, September 2009-February 2010
Role of app developers
4G
Consumers delay upgrades but keep service during recession
Figure 16: Disposable personal income and personal consumption, 2006-10
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRAND QUALITIES
Key points
 LEADING COMPANIES
Trended ownership by brand
Figure 17: Brand owned, 2002/03-2008/09
iPhone most popular phone in 2009
Figure 18: Most popular phones in use in the U.S., 2009
18-24s favor LG, Samsung, 25-34s Apple and RIM
Figure 19: Brand of mobile phone owned, by age, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 20: Brand of mobile phone owned, by household income, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 21: Brand of mobile phone owned—teens, by gender and age, November 2008-December 2009
Nokia lags further with online consumers
Figure 22: Brand of primary mobile phone—online respondents, March 2010
 BRAND QUALITIES
Apple
Google
LG
Microsoft
Motorola
Nokia
Research in Motion/RIM
Samsung
SOCIAL MEDIA BUZZ ABOUT OS AND APP STORES
Key points
Discussion of manufacturers and brands
Apple far in the lead in mentions by brand
Figure 23: Total app store/OS mentions, by brand, January 2010-June 2010
Android passes Blackberry in brand mentions in late 2009
Figure 24: Trended mentions, by brand, October 2009-June 2010
Major feature discussions
Natural approach finds games most buzzed about
Figure 25: Total mentions, by primary application/topic, January 2010-June 2010
Games and social networking pulling ahead in 2010
Figure 26: Total mentions, by primary application/topic, monthly trends October 2009-June 2010
Apple leads in gaming mentions, Android in social networking
Figure 27: Total mentions of application/topic, by OS, January 2010 – June 2010
Buzz primarily positive
Figure 28: Total mentions of application/topic, positive and negative, by OS, January 2010-June 2010
INNOVATION AND INNOVATORS
HTC
Modu
A hotspot in your pocket
ADVERTISING AND PROMOTION
Figure 29: Advertising spending by leading cell phone manufacturers, 2008 and 2009
PRINT ADVERTISING
TELEVISION ADVERTISING
Apple leverages apps
Figure 30: Apple iPhone ad, 2010
BlackBerry tries to break out of its business suit
Figure 31: BlackBerry/RIM ad, 2009
HTC makes it all about you
Figure 32: HTC ad, 2009
Motorola puts it all in your hand
Figure 33: Motorola ad, 2009
ONLINE ADVERTISING
OWNERSHIP AND INTENT TO PURCHASE
Key points
Adult ownership approaches 90%
Figure 34: Trended ownership, 2000/01-2008/09
Figure 35: Cell phone penetration, by gender, age and household income, December 2008-November 2009
One in six in the market for new phone
Figure 36: Cell phone plan purchase intent, by age, March 2010
High levels of interest in Android seen in smartphone owners
Figure 37: Smartphone platform purchase interest, March 2010
SPEND
Key points
Over half of respondents spent less than $60 on their last phone
Figure 38: Cost of most recently purchased cell phone, by gender, age and household income, December 2008-November 2009
Figure 39: Cost of most recently purchased cell phone, by age, March 2010
PURCHASING BEHAVIOR AND MOTIVATIONS
Key points
20% of 18-34s have spent $200 or more
Figure 40: Attitudes on spending on cell phones, by age, March 2010
Figure 41: Attitudes on spending on cell phones, by household income, March 2010
Cost still leading factor selected
Figure 42: Overall factors driving cell phone choice, March 2010
Figure 43: Overall factors driving cell phone choice, by age, March 2010
Figure 44: Overall factors driving cell phone choice, by household income, March 2010
Phone size, style matter more for older users
Figure 45: Hardware features driving cell phone choice, March 2010
Figure 46: Hardware features driving cell phone choice, by gender, March 2010
Figure 47: Hardware features driving cell phone choice, by age, March 2010
ATTITUDES AND MOTIVATIONS
Key points
Younger users most open to cell phones’ potential
Figure 48: General attitudes on cell phones, by age, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 49: General attitudes toward cell phones, by household income, November 2008-December 2009
Older respondents prefer clamshells
Figure 50: Attitudes on phone hardware, by age, March 2010
Younger users most positive on mobile web
Figure 51: Attitudes on web usage on phones, by age, March 2010
Figure 52: Attitudes on web usage on phones, by household income, March 2010
TEEN AND KID USAGE
Room to grow in adoption by kids and teens
Figure 53: Penetration of cell phone ownership, kids and teens, December 2008-November 2009
Teens embrace new cell phone capabilities
Figure 54: Teen attitudes about cell phones, November 2008-December 2009
SMARTPHONES AND APPS
Key points
Smartphone ownership highest with young and high-income consumers
Figure 55: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by age, March 2010
Figure 56: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by household income, March 2010
App downloading limited, but frequent among those who do download
Figure 57: Incidence of app downloading, by gender, age, household income and race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
Only one in six see app availability as a driver in next phone purchase
Figure 58: General attitudes on apps, March 2010
Engagement with apps limited
Figure 59: Positive attitudes toward cell phone apps, March 2010
A noticeable share of users lose interest in apps
Figure 60: Negative attitudes on cell phone apps, March 2010
CLUSTER ANALYSIS
Websters
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Flippers
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Basics
Demographics
Characteristics
Opportunity
Cluster characteristics
Figure 61: Mobile phone clusters, March 2010
Figure 62: Hardware features driving phone selection, by mobile phone clusters, March 2010
Figure 63: Attitudes toward phone style and pricing, by mobile phone clusters, March 2010
Figure 64: Purchases of apps and media, by mobile phone clusters, March 2010
Figure 65: Price paid for most recent phone, by mobile phone clusters, March 2010
Cluster demographics
Figure 66: Mobile phone clusters, by gender, March 2010
Figure 67: Mobile phone clusters, by age, March 2010
Figure 68: Mobile phone clusters, by household income, March 2010
Figure 69: Mobile phone clusters, by race, March 2010
Figure 70: Mobile phone clusters, by Hispanic origin, March 2010
Cluster methodology
IMPACT OF RACE/HISPANIC ORIGIN
Key points
Asians, Hispanics spend most on phones
Figure 71: Ownership of mobile phones, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 72: Mean spend on mobile phones, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 73: Brand of phone owned, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 74: Hardware features driving cell phone choice, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
Figure 75: Web feature usage on phones, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
Figure 76: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
Figure 77: Incidence of app downloads, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
Figure 78: Positive attitudes on cell phone apps, by race/Hispanic origin, March 2010
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUPS
Families, urbanites most likely to use smartphones and the web
Figure 79: Incidence of cell phone content downloads, by presence of children, March 2010
Figure 80: Web feature usage on phones, by presence of children, March 2010
Figure 81: Web feature usage on phones, urban vs. suburban vs. rural, March 2010
Figure 82: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by presence of children, March 2010
Figure 83: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, urban vs. suburban vs. rural, March 2010
APPENDIX: OTHER USEFUL CONSUMER TABLES
Gender differences
Figure 84: Attitudes on phone hardware, by gender, March 2010
Figure 85: Web feature usage on phones, by gender, November 2008-December 2009
Figure 86: Attitudes on spending on cell phones, by gender, March 2010
Figure 87: Type of phone owned and availability of advanced capabilities, by gender, March 2010
Differences by household income
Figure 88: Incidence of cell phone content downloads, by household income, March 2010
Figure 89: Cost of most recently purchased cell phone, by household income, March 2010
Figure 90: Hardware features driving cell phone choice, by household income, March 2010
APPENDIX: TRADE ASSOCIATIONS